May 28th, 2019: Gregorius, Paxton, Bullpen, Minor, Sanchez, Frazier

Good news, folks. Bob, Derek, Matt, and Steven have launched a new post-RAB blog called Views from 314 ft (Twitter: @ViewsFrom314ft). They'll have game recaps, daily minor league updates, and much more. Make sure you check it out. Now here is this week's first set of thoughts.

1. Didi's rehab. Finally, we have a timetable for Sir Didi's return. Gregorius played in a few Extended Spring Training games last week and started an official minor league rehab assignment with High-A Tampa on Saturday. He went 2-for-7 with a homer (video) and a walk in two games with the Tarpons, plus his new elbow ligament was tested with several plays in the field. Yesterday was a light workout/rest day, and Gregorius will move his rehab up to Triple-A Scranton today. Aaron Boone told Dan Martin that Didi will spend "a week to two weeks" with the RailRiders before rejoining the Yankees. His 20-day rehab clock started Saturday, so, barring a setback (please no), Gregorius will rejoin the Yankees no later than Thursday, June 13th. It sounds like he'll be back earlier than that though. Maybe in time for the six-game road trip (Toronto and Cleveland) that starts next Tuesday? That'd be cool. If it's a little later, that's okay too. Point is, we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel, and the Yankees are going to have Gregorius available for something like 100 games this year. That's pretty much the best case scenario. I figured he would return sometime around the All-Star break. The Yankees are poised to get their shortstop back several weeks before that. Hooray. Now just keep your fingers crossed that the last few rehab games go smoothly. “I texted with him probably three days ago when he started (rehab games) just to let him know how excited we all are for him and where he’s at. I know he’s excited to take these next steps. It’s good to know he’s getting close," Boone told Martin over the weekend. 

2. Paxton's knee. Man, I do not like the Yankees bringing James Paxton back before his knee is 100%. Paxton threw 60-ish pitches in three innings plus a few batters in an Extended Spring Training game Friday and reported a little discomfort in his knee afterward. "I felt it a little bit, but I still was able to make my pitches, which is what I wanted to see," he told Mark Didtler. I suppose the good news is the discomfort was not more severe the next day and Paxton was able to do his work (running, fielding drills, etc.) with no issue, but the knee still isn't all the way back, and Aaron Boone indicated it may be something Paxton deals with all season. "We hope it’s something that when he comes back and is pitching, it’s something that continues to improve over time. There is the possibility it could be one of those things he’s got to grind through," the manager told Dan Martin over the weekend. Do not like. I can't help but think back to last season when Aroldis Chapman pitched through a knee issue until it became too much and he needed a month-long stint on the then-disabled list. I'd rather the Yankees give Paxton the extra week or two now than lose him for another month later, you know? Also, what if he changes his mechanics to protect the knee -- that's something that can happen subconsciously -- and hurts his arm? I mean, the Yankees just lost Giancarlo Stanton to a calf injury because he (supposedly) took a pitch to the knee and changed his gait while running. I don't like it. I know the Yankees are desperate for innings and another starter right now, but I still don't like it. Paxton is too important, both this season and next, to rush him back from an injury. The guy still feels discomfort in the knee. That's his body's way of telling him "hey, stop, something's not right." Maybe I'm worrying for no reason. I'm not a doctor -- Paxton was cleared to return by an actual doctor yesterday -- it's just the idea of bringing a player as good and as important as Paxton back from the injured list when he's still feeling discomfort makes me squeamish. This feels like a regret waiting to happen. "As long as it’s not going to be a thing where I can make this thing worse by pitching on it, I feel like I’m ready to go. I just don’t want to go out there and put myself in jeopardy of tearing something and then I’m out for three months," Paxton told Ronald Blum.

3. Bullpen workload. The bullpen workload is becoming a real problem, which I assume is one reason the Yankees are bringing James Paxton back even though he still feels something in the knee. They need innings. Here are some reliever workloads over the last 13 days, dating back to the doubleheader against the Orioles:

• Zack Britton: 7 games, 7 innings, 96 pitches
• Aroldis Chapman: 7 games, 7 innings, 109 pitches
• Jonathan Holder: 5 games, 5 innings, 78 pitches
• Tommy Kahnle: 7 games, 6 innings, 95 pitches
• Adam Ottavino: 6 games, 6 innings, 83 pitches

That doesn't include all the times they warmed up and did not get into the game. That takes a toll. And remember, Britton and Chapman pitched in both games of the Orioles doubleheader -- "Two games in one day did a number," Britton told George King a few days after the doubleheader -- and Chapman warmed up in the first game of the Royals doubleheader and pitched in the second game. These guys have seen a lot of action the last two weeks. Sunday's loss in Kansas City was clearly a "lose the battle to win the war" game where Aaron Boone was not going to use his high-leverage arms simply because they needed a break (they nearly won that game anyway). This is both a short-term and long-term concern. These guys are tired and sometimes unavailable now, and leaning on the bullpen so much in May and June could result in a more fatigued and less effective relief crew in the second half. Achy knees or not, hopefully Paxton and CC Sabathia come back soon and the Yankees can stop using openers and spot starters. Those opener/spot start games can be a real drain on the bullpen. Also, Dellin Betances threw off a mound yesterday for the first time since being shut down, so he's slowly but surely working his way back. Dellin returning and lightening the load on the other guys will be welcome, for sure. The Yankees could really use a blowout win or three right now though. Something to give the high-leverage guys a two or three-day break where they don't even have to think about warming up. The workload is starting to become extreme.

4. Minor trade target. Minor as in Mike Minor. There's going to be a bunch of talk about the Yankees signing Dallas Keuchel -- Erik Boland says the Yankees had one of their "top talent evaluators" on hand for Keuchel's latest workout -- and trading for Madison Bumgarner in the coming weeks, and I totally get. They're the big names. Personally, I am increasingly loving the idea of Mike Minor. He's sitting on a 2.55 ERA (3.37 FIP) this year and has a 2.88 ERA (3.82 FIP) in his last 27 starts and 162.1 innings dating back to last June. That is close to a full season of excellence. Good strikeout rate (25.5%), good walk rate (7.8%), okay ground ball rate (41.3%), and good-to-great underlying numbers:

The Yankees love love love spin rate and Minor has it, especially on his fastball (2,648 rpm) and slider (2,751 rpm). Those numbers rank among the best in baseball. Minor dealt with some very serious arm problems earlier in his career, most notably shoulder surgery that kept him out the entire 2015 and 2016 seasons. When a guy has an injury like that in his history, it's always worrisome, but Minor has not had any problems since returning in 2017. He's 31, he has four pitches (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup), and he's been really good for two years running now. And he's affordable too. Minor is owed the remainder of his $9.5M salary this year plus another $9.5M next year (his contract has a $9.33M luxury tax hit). That's a pretty sweet deal. Put him in Yankee Stadium and I doubt he puts up a 2.88 ERA in his next 162.1 innings, but the underlying numbers are good enough for me to believe he's an above-average starter. An above-average starter with injury risk, but above-average nonetheless. Those guys are hard to get. The Rangers are mediocre rather than dreadful this year -- they are 2.5 games back of a postseason spot at 25-26 -- and recent reports indicate they are looking to add pitching at the trade deadline, not subtract it, but we'll see how the next few weeks go. That could be posturing or they could change their tune if the losses pile up. I'm not sure what it'll take to get Minor -- Texas could probably demand one very good prospect plus two other lesser pieces, no? something similar to the James Paxton trade package? -- or if he'll even be available. I'm a fan though. Minor looks healthy and legit, and the Yankees could use someone like him both this year and next year, after CC Sabathia rides off into the sunset.

5. Gary's grounders. Did you know Gary Sanchez has a 20.4% ground ball rate this year? I stumbled upon that while digging through some leaderboards over the weekend and it blew my mind. That is nuts. Sanchez has easily the lowest ground ball rate among the 278 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances -- Josh Phegley is a distant second at 23.2% -- and Gary's contact is as loud as anyone's (min. 50 balls in play):

• Exit velocity (line drives and fly balls): 100.0 mph (second to Joey Gallo)
• Exit velocity (overall): 94.1 mph (fifth behind Gallo, Josh Bell, Christian Yelich, Nelson Cruz)

Sanchez's barrel rate (a barrel is essentially a batted ball with exit velocity and launch angle in the most productive ranges) is an unreal 15.9%. Jason Castro is second at 14.6%. The 2018 barrel rate leader was Gallo at 11.4%. Small sample size and all that, but hot damn. Given his low ground ball rate and insanely hard contact, Statcast says Gary has an expected slugging percentage of .716 -- .716! -- this season. That is second to Cody Bellinger (.735), who I think is using a cheat code this year, and no one else is over .685. This is all a very nerdy way of saying Sanchez is destroying the ball this year. Pretty much no one is making contact this good this consistently, and he's doing it as a catcher. Gary hit the ball hard last year (90.3 mph exit velocity and .465 expected slugging) but this is something else. Sixteen homers in 151 plate appearances works out to 42 homers in 400 plate appearances. Only five catchers in history have hit 40 homers in a season (Mike Piazza and Johnny Bench each did it twice), and none have done it since Javy Lopez slugged 43 homers in 2003. Sanchez has a very real chance to get there this year. He's absolutely punishing the ball and he plays his home games in a very home run happy ballpark. Gary is well on his way to making some history this season given his current pace. How fun.

6. Frazier's defense. Clint Frazier's defense has been Extremely Bad. He hasn't always been this bad in the field, or at least the scouting reports said he wasn't this bad, but wow has he been bad. It's not just that he had a bad series in Kansas City either. Remember when he misplayed some catchable fly balls and had the usually stoic Masahiro Tanaka doing this? This has been a season-long thing. Among the 137 outfielders with at least 25 fielding opportunities this year, Frazier ranks dead last with -10 Outs Above Average. Shin-Soo Choo (-6 OAA) and Domingo Santana (-8 OAA) are the only other outfielders worst than -5 OAA. Yikes. DRS (-5) and UZR (+1.2) are a bit more kind to Clint because they factor in throwing arm and he has a very good arm. OAA is straight "is he catching the balls he's supposed to catch?" and so far this season the answer is lol no. Not even close. Frazier has started hitting again (10-for-26 with four homers in his last seven games), so he's going to be in the lineup, but he's also going to be pulled for defense. He's been replaced defensively in the seventh inning five times in his last ten outfield starts, including yesterday. That will (and should) continue. "He’s dropped some balls that he’s gotten his glove on. He ends up making a great play later (Sunday), which was encouraging to see. I feel like his routes and his jumps have improved and keep getting better," Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty over the weekend, which is about as critical has you'll hear Boone talk about a player. Similar to Miguel Andujar, the Yankees should absolutely stick with Frazier and work with him on his defense. Development is not linear and there will be growing pains. Stick with him and work on it, because the bat is special, and it's worth building around. "There’s room for improvement out there, and I’m working hard, and I’m trying to fix some things that shouldn’t happen that keep happening. I’m just trying to target the confidence that I have at the plate, and take it out there into the outfield," Frazier told Zach Braziller yesterday.