May 24th, 2019: Stanton, Sabathia, Rotation, Hale, All-Stars, Park

The Yankees keep losing players to injury and they keeping winning series too. They are 10-1 in their last 11 series -- the only loss was the two-game sweep in Arizona -- and they are all alone in first place in the AL East. A win tonight combined with a Twins loss would give the Yankees the best record in baseball. Pretty incredible. Pretty fun too. Here is the latest thoughts post.

1. Stanton's injury. The mystery surrounding Giancarlo Stanton's injuries is ... weird. I get that teams don't want to reveal more than the bare minimum -- the Collective Bargaining Agreement includes guidelines for making injury information available -- but I can't ever remember the Yankees being this secretive. Aaron Boone has been talking in circles and Stanton himself indicated the biceps injury was more serious than the Yankees let on. Now there's this calf strain that is supposedly the result of a hit-by-pitch? What? How odd. Fortunately, Joel Sherman got to the bottom of it:

Aaron Boone recently called Stanton to say: Take your time making sure your legs are in good shape because upon return, you will mainly be a right fielder in place of Judge — not a DH. Stanton, though, was already so annoyed about missing time due to biceps, then shoulder issues that he tried to work through knee pain created from a hit by pitch in extended spring.

Knowing he needed to play the outfield, Stanton continued to run to build up leg strength and, instead, changed his gait enough to, in Boone’s words, incur a “mild strain of the calf.”

Taking a pitch to the knee in an Extended Spring Training game is just bad luck. It happens. Extended Spring Training pitchers aren't exactly known for their control, you know? But then Stanton tried to play through the achy knee because he wants to help the team, and it led to the calf injury. Great. Just great. "He’s incredibly frustrated by what has happened because he wants to get back to the team," Stanton's agent told Sherman, which I totally get, but damn, seems like this calf issue was completely avoidable. The Yankees says Stanton will be shut down 7-10 days. At this point though, who knows? He's already dealt with several setbacks and calf injuries aren't known to heal all that quickly. The idea the Yankees are better without Stanton is impossibly stupid (don't laugh, it's out there). Their combined right field and DH numbers this season:

• AVG: .219 (27th in MLB)
• OBP: .314 (24th)
• SLG: .435 (18th)
• wRC+: 96 (22nd)

Stanton is a devastating power hitter who changes games simply by standing in on the on-deck circle. The Yankees really miss him. Him, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, all their injured guys. They miss them all. I'm glad the Yankees are finding ways to win, it is fun as hell, but I want this team to get to full strength as soon as possible. Stanton's setbacks are frustrating for us and even more frustrating for him. Hopefully this calf problem truly is a 7-10 day thing and he can be back in two or three weeks. I'm not sure how much longer the Yankees can keep up this pace with an All-Star team on the injured list.

2. Sabathia's injury. I had a feeling something was up with CC Sabathia when he came out throwing 86-87 mph in the first inning Wednesday. That's usually a sign his knee is acting up. "It was just hard to land. It's like a shooting pain goes through every time when I land, so it makes it hard to kind of finish my pitches," Sabathia told Coley Harvey after the game. Sabathia is back in New York to get his knee drained and receive a lubrication injection, which is the usual treatment when his knee flares up. I am certain this is exactly how Sabathia would rank the ways the injury bothers him:

1. Not being able to help the team.
2. Missing out on Kansas City barbecue this weekend.
3. Feeling pain in the knee.

"This is something you know that we're going to face at different times throughout the year with CC, so hopefully it's something that we can knock out quickly, and hopefully just miss a turn," Aaron Boone told Harvey. It sounds like James Paxton will be back next week as long as today's three-inning, 60-pitch simulated game goes well in Tampa -- I have to think the Yankees would give Paxton an extra day and slot him into the rotation for the series opener against the Red Sox next Thursday rather than the series finale against the Padres next Wednesday -- which means the Yankees will need a spot starter three times until Sabathia is eligible to return. The possible upcoming rotation:

• Friday at Royals: Chad Green as opener (announced last night)
• Saturday at Royals: J.A. Happ
• Sunday at Royals: Domingo German
• Monday vs. Padres: Opener/spot starter (Sabathia's spot)
• Tuesday vs. Padres: Masahiro Tanaka
• Wednesday vs. Padres: Opener/spot starter
• Thursday vs. Red Sox: James Paxton?
• Friday vs. Red Sox: J.A. Happ
• Saturday vs. Red Sox: Domingo German
• Sunday vs. Red Sox: Masahiro Tanaka  

If Paxton is not ready to go, the Yankees could move Happ and German up a day to begin the Red Sox series. They'd then need to figure out a starter for Saturday. If Paxton is ready to go, the upcoming rotation is not too bad, so fingers crossed. There is rain in the forecast pretty much all weekend in Kansas City, which could throw a wrench into things, but what can you do. Point is, the Yankees are now looking at three opener/spot starter games in the next six (!) days. After that though, Paxton and Sabathia could be back and the rotation could be whole again. As long as this is truly one of those "routine maintenance for the knee" injured list stints and not something more serious -- we have no reason to believe it is something more serious right now -- the Yankees should be okay in about a week. It looks worse than it really is.

3. Spot starters. Alright, so who actually makes those three spot starts? The answer seems pretty straightforward to me: Nestor Cortes and David Hale will be paired with an opener. Figure Cortes behind Green tonight, Hale on Monday, and Cortes again on Wednesday. What's the alternative? Signing Dallas Keuchel and starting him next week is unrealistic. The 10-day rule means Chance Adams is not eligible to return until Thursday, so he's not an option unless there's another injury*. The current Triple-A Scranton rotation is Drew Hutchison, Brody Koerner, Adonis Rosa, reliever-turned-starter Raynel Espinal, and the recently signed Daniel Camarena (yes, he's back). None of those dudes is getting called up in anything other than an extreme emergency. The Orioles weirdly designated former Yankees prospect Yefry Ramirez for assignment two days ago and I think he's someone the Yankees should look to add in a minor trade before he hits waivers, because I think he'll get claimed long before their turn comes up. Ramirez has three pitches, he's stretched out, and he's pitched well in Triple-A. Seems like a worthwhile pickup for depth purposes. I've been digging through Triple-A leaderboards for two days now and I don't see an obvious Cameron Maybin-esque trade target for rotation help. Use Green (or Jonathan Holder) as an opener, roll with Cortes and Hale as long as possible, and use Luis Cessa to soak up innings as a long man as necessary. Not sure what else the Yankees could do right now. Can't expect miracles from guys like Cortes and Hale (and Cessa). The defense has to support them and the offense has to give them breathing room. The entire roster has to pick up the slack these next few days, and, to the Yankees' credit, they've been doing it all year. This is just more of the same.

* I wrote that sentence right as Masahiro Tanaka took that line drive to the chest yesterday afternoon. True story. 

4. Hale's velocity. Speaking of Hale, we got a chance to see him in action the other night, and see if all this velocity/spin rate stuff I've been mentioning is legit. Hale's spin rate is relatively unchanged from last season, disappointingly. His velocity thought? It is way up.

My guess is Statcast misclassified some sinkers as four-seamers. That would explain the huge spike in sinker spin rate -- you want low spin on sinkers (and changeups) to get that tumbling action -- when the spin rate on everything else held steady. The velocity though? That's a significant increase. Roughly two miles an hour across the board. As noted last week, Hale attributed the velocity uptick to "dad strength," which is cute, but there has to be something else going on here, right? I heard the Yankees and their analytics folks suggested some mechanical tweaks and Hale took to them well. That's more believable to me than "dad strength," especially since the Yankees have a history of getting their pitchers to add velocity. Whatever it is, Hale is throwing noticeably harder this year, and that should change expectations and projections going forward. Hale at 90-92 mph is a journeyman depth guy. Hale at 93-95? That guy might have some staying power as a long man/spot starter, which isn't sexy, but is a necessary roster piece. We need more information though. I'm sure we'll see Hale on the mound at some point in the next few days, so we'll see whether the velocity uptick sticks, and get a better of understanding of what exactly the Yankees have here.

5. Roster crunch. Did you know the Yankees have nine (!) players on the 60-day injured list right now? It's true: Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Heller, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery, and Luis Severino. I imagine Aaron Judge will make it ten whenever a 40-man roster spot is needed next. (Judge has already been on the injured list 34 days.) Andujar is not coming back this season. We know that much. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting around for Ellsbury, especially since it is entirely possible the Yankees will release him whenever he heals up and the insurance money runs out. Point is, the Yankees have 49 players on their 40-man roster right now, and they're going to have to clear some spots soon enough. My guess is the 40-man chopping block order looks something like this:

1. Aaron Judge to the 60-day injured list.
2. Troy Tulowitzki to the 60-day injured list if there's another setback.
3. Giancarlo Stanton to the 60-day injured list if there's another setback.
4. Jake Barrett
5. Breyvic Valera (hitting .393/.485/.929 with Triple-A Scranton, by the way)
6. David Hale
7. Nestor Cortes
8. Kendrys Morales
9. Joe Harvey

Morales could move up (or is it down?) the chopping block depending who returns from the 60-day injured list. The Yankees won't need Morales once Stanton, Judge, and Didi get healthy, for example. Well, whatever. I was just taken aback at how many players the Yankees have on the 60-day injured right now. I knew they were piling up, but I didn't think it was that many. I can't ever remember the Yankees having that many players on the 60-day injured list. Definitely not during the RAB era. I wish there were an easy way to look up disabled/injured list information. I get the feeling nine 60-day injured list players doesn't happen all that often. Eventually these guys will have to be activated and the Yankees are going to have to figure their roster out. It's not necessarily a problem. It's just something that will have to be addressed.

6. All-Stars. At some point in the next week or two MLB will launch the annual All-Star Game voting. The process has changed this year. Fans will vote for the starters at each position, as usual, except now the top three finalists at each position will be put into a second one-day runoff vote. Should be fun. Anyway, the full All-Star Game rosters are weeks from being finalized, though it's never too early to discuss which Yankees might be heading to the Midsummer Classic. I see four obvious All-Stars: Aroldis Chapman, Domingo German, Gleyber Torres, and Gary Sanchez. Sanchez is the easiest call there given the state of catching around the league, plus there's no Salvador Perez to steal away the fan vote this year. I was on the fence about German initially but the guy is top ten in basically every meaningful (and even some not so meaningful) pitching category. He belongs. Chapman has been excellent again -- y'all realize he has 31 strikeouts and five walks in 19.2 innings? -- and Torres should probably sign his All-Star Game bonus check over to the Orioles. (I kid, I kid.) Non-closing relievers like Adam Ottavino are getting more and more All-Star Game love with each passing year, though they're still at a disadvantage relative to the ninth inning guys. I think he's on the outside right now. As good as he's been, I can't see Gio Urshela as an All-Star. Third base is too stacked. Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, and Hunter Dozier all have better numbers than Urshela, and Yoan Moncada could get the nod as the token White Sox (and Dozier as the token Royal). DJ LeMahieu is definitely in the second base conversation. Jose Altuve will be back from his knee injury soon and chances are he'll win the fan vote. There might only be one second base spot behind Altuve and, right now, I'd say it's between LeMahieu, Tommy La Stella, Whit Merrifield, and maybe Brandon Lowe. LeMahieu is a two-time All-Star. Will that work in his favor? Would they pick the guy who's been there before? Or bring in some new faces? LeMahieu's a veteran. He's been there, done that. He probably would rather have the week off than go to the All-Star Game. Anyway, my guess right now -- this is absolutely going to change in the coming weeks -- is Chapman, German, Sanchez, and Torres are All-Stars with LeMahieu on the outside looking in.

7. Park's breakout. Infielder Hoy Jun Park, who signed for $1M during the ill-fated 2014-15 international spending spree, is currently hitting .317/.390/.475 (153 wRC+) through 32 games with Double-A Trenton. That's after a .258/.387/.349 (122 wRC+) line with High-A Tampa last season. Park's walk rate is down (16.2% to 10.1%), though his strikeout (16.4% to 17.4%) and swing-and-miss (7.5% to 7.1%) rates are basically unchanged despite moving up a level. There is very little power to his game, but Park does a little of everything else. It's a leadoff profile with speed and on-base ability, plus he's a good defender who can play both middle infield positions. I imagine there will be some third base in his future at some point as well. Park turned only 23 last month, so age is still on his side, and he does enough to profile as a utility guy going forward. That's not the most exciting thing in the world, I know, but carving out a bench role at this point has to be seen as a win. A year or two ago it didn't look like Park would be able to contribute at all. Now he's hitting well in Double-A with the same speed and defense skills. At this point Park and Estevan Florial, and maaaybe Dermis Garcia and Pablo Olivares (and the still rehabbing from shoulder surgery Freicer Perez), are the only 2014-15 signing period guys with a chance to help the Yankees. Park figuring out how to be a utility guy would be better than nothing. He's someone I'll be watching the rest of the summer given his hot start. "He has really kind of blossomed. I was telling someone that this is the best version of Hoy that I have ever seen, because I have had Hoy for all of 2017 in Charleston and last year in Tampa, and you saw glimpses. But the way he is playing now is on another level, really with his whole  game: defensively, offensively, the aggressiveness. He has really turned into an exciting player," Double-A Trenton manager Patrick Osborn told Sean Miller recently.

8. Stewart's decision. In case you missed it earlier this week, right-hander and 2019 draft prospect Carter Stewart agreed to a six-year deal worth $7M with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan. Stewart was the eighth overall pick in last year's draft out of high school, though his deal with the Braves fell apart when they discovered a wrist issue during his pre-signing physical. He did not sign and instead went to junior college this spring, making him eligible for the 2019 draft. Various rankings and mock drafts pegged him as a second round guy, putting his slot value in the $1M to $1.6M range. Signing in Japan does two things for Stewart:

• Puts more money in his pocket. Much more. Even if he were to get a $4M signing bonus out of the draft, he'd spend the next six years making a pittance in the minors and pre-arbitration salaries in the big leagues (after having his service time manipulated, of course). The chances of a 19-year-old pitcher reaching his money-making arbitration years less than six years after being drafted are small.
• Allows him to select his MLB team. There are conflicting reports about whether Stewart will become a free agent or have to be posted in six years. Either way, once his six-year contract is up, Stewart will have the option of coming back to the United States, and he'll have a say in where he winds up, unlike the draft.

Scott Boras, Stewart's agent, has been beating the "top prospects should leverage Japan against the draft" drum for years and years. He tried it with Brien Taylor way back in the day. He finally found someone willing to sign in Japan. Stewart gets a nice chunk of guaranteed money and, in six years, he'll get some form of free agency. Sure, he could flame out, but that applies to every 19-year-old pitcher. I suspect we're going to hear more prospects indicate they are willing to go to Japan in the future but I'm not sure how many will actually follow through. For starters, there is a limit on foreign players in Japan. Only four per team, and those clubs aren't going to tie those spots up with American amateurs. Secondly, the money might not always be there. The highest paid player in Japan made about $5M last year. Fukuoka has won four of the last five Japan Series and was in position to commit $7M to unproven teenager. The Yomiuri Giants are the New York Yankees of Japan and are pretty much the only other team capable of throwing around money. Finding a $7M or $8M payday in Japan may not always be possible for a draft prospect. Either way, this is a direct result of MLB's amateur spending restrictions. With an uncapped draft, something the league had as recently as 2011, chances are Stewart doesn't look to Japan for the largest possible payday. Going forward, I think we're going to hear draft prospects and international prospects -- how long until a top prospect from the Dominican Republic signs in Japan because he can make more than he would under MLB's international hard spending cap? -- talk more about Japan (and Korea) as a legitimate possibility. They might only be bluffing, but one player has taken the plunge now, and MLB will have to take those threats a little more seriously. Then again, MLB has always been willing to trade $2 tomorrow for $1 today, so the league and the 30 teams might not care at all. Stewart's decision is significant though. This could be the start of something. (Jim Allen has more on Stewart's decision.)

Mailbag Question of the Week

Anonymous asks: Mike, who would you identify as the Yankees' five most useful trade chips this year, if Cashman decides to go into the market as a buyer. These are usually players who we as fans would say "No, don't trade him!", but would return a significant asset. I'm thinking Frazier, Estrada, Florial, Breaux, maybe some high-upside arms. 

We can safely assume Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and James Paxton are untouchable. The Yankees are building around those players and they will look to add to them at the deadline, not subtract them. Domingo German is probably in that group as well given his importance to the 2019 Yankees. Also, Miguel Andujar is damaged goods following should surgery. Will teams try to get him at a discount? Yes. Will the Yankees sell low? I doubt it.

These are the team's five most valuable trade chips, in my opinion:

1. Deivi Garcia
2. Estevan Florial
3. Clint Frazier
4. Everson Pereira
5. Clarke Schmidt

Florial with a healthy wrist would sit in the top spot, so if he shows he's healthy before July 31st -- Florial started playing in Extended Spring Training games earlier this week -- I'd put him atop the list. Deivi has been great this year and is the Yankees' top pitching prospect, if not their top prospect overall.

With Frazier, injuries and limited big league action have taken a bite out of his trade value. Teams won't pay full price for a guy who's played 216 total games since Opening Day 2017. Also, it always seems like the young player who has yet to taste the big leagues is more coveted than the guy we've seen at the highest level. Shiny new toy syndrome, I guess. That's why I have Frazier below Garcia and Florial.

The Yankees have many quality pitching prospects at High-A and below (Schmidt, Roansy Contreras, Rony Garcia, Frank German, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gomez, Luis Medina, Glenn Otto, Juan Then, Miguel Yajure, etc.), and those are the guys I'd push in trade. Normal attrition means several will flame out and/or get hurt. Cash 'em in for big league help while you can.

That is easier said than done, of course, because it takes two to tango. The other team has to want those guys. Would, say, the Nationals trade Anthony Rendon (or Max Scherzer?) for a package headlined by Single-A arms? Would the Giants do it for Madison Bumgarner? I can't see it. Garcia, Florial, and Frazier are the headliners to me.

(Send mailbag questions to RABmailbag@gmail.com.)