July 2020 - Mid Month Updates
Added 2020-07-21 17:47:48 +0000 UTCWizards continued to pump out a record number of products on a monthly basis. The most surprising part, is how well the market is absorbing and accepting it. Besides delays in production and printing due to Covid-19, not a single new magic product has "failed" or "collapsed" in value. The nasty truth is that i dont see this changing.
Double Masters - As my firm numbers are coming in, I will be selling Double Masters in 2 box sets for logisitic reasons and shape of the box. I expect prices on the secondary market to pop over $300+ a box. As with all Masters boxes, i do not expect a reprint or restock. I think time will judge the product and the market will tell us if it is "successful". The fact does remain though...every box has 48 rares/mythics + 2 box toppers. It is going to be very difficult for this product to "tank" in price.
VIP Masters - This is probably the largest wildcard item right now. With the new wave of anger due to wizards making a mistake on the card allocation to the public, i expect a lot of "noise" online. But i dont see any changes in the price or demand at release. Who knows how the market will settle on this item. It is truely a gamble.
7/23/2020 - 9:00pm EST = Sale for VIP masters boxes (sold in small 4 pack sealed boxes)
7/25/2020 - 9:00pm EST = Sale for Double masters boxes (sold in 2 box sets)
These items will ship separatly, and will sell out quickly. There will be no additional sale or restock. You can buy during BOTH sales if you want to.
Sealed Boxes - Wizards is going to have a large transition during August with a hard cut off/out of print on 5 products. Until i can fully confirm this, i dont want to speculate to much. I expect this to have a hard upwward push on many sealed products moving into the end of 2020. I think all the products this year will have better than average returns due to the volatile world and problematic economy.
Culture - Many patrons have been angered and frustrated with the continued shift in politics and culture in magic. The bad news is, i expect this to continue to deteriorate further. The artwork and names of cards being banned or censored is a strange twist for long term investors. I would be very careful buying into these items. I expect in 1-2 years the world will calm and evolve into other "hot topics". Believe it or not, i dont expect many more cards to be banned. I believe the 1st round of "bannings" invoke,Crusade....etc...were more of proof of action, so wizards can point and say we did something. The reality is many patrons have left and quite magic over this type of culture shift. I like to remind everyone, the loudest voices online DO NOT reflect the majority of the magic world.
Pokemon - It is rumored that a group of investors moved in and spent 10million+ absorbing tons of sealed product. This occured slowely over the last 6 months and the market freaked out when it realized it. No proof, just rumor. If this is accurate, then pokemon is NOT in a bubble since people with that much wealth will hold for a long time.
Jumpstart - It appears the delays will be another 2-6 weeks until the next wave arrives, i actually dont expect the price to drop much even when the next wave hits. BUT i do expect the prices to drop in 2021 when further actual reprints show up. Simliar to Conspiracy 2. Use caution, enjoy the product, or flip it for an easy profit.
Zendikar - In a couple months Zendikar is probably going to blow peoples minds and be the biggest shake up in magic this year. I fully expect Fetchland specialty cards and other surprises. I expect the allocation period for zendikar to be a full 60 days minimun due to the demand.
Core 2021 - is still on allocation, and while the single card value is low, distributors report strong sales of the sealed product and wizards is leaving the allocation for another couple weeks. Looks like it wont be ready until Sept 1st.
Reserved list - This section of magic is very stable now. The amount of contacts selling, has declined a substantially compared to 3 months ago. THe prices are no longer dropping and legacy cards like (Cradle,Grim monolith,Gilded Drake) are in a full bull market with demand pushing these prices up. I dont think it is a bubble. I think many people waited for the market to show signs of stability. I think this is laying the ground work for a lot of A/B/U/Ar/An/Leg cards to have another leg up in price in 2021 and this is something you should have your positions ready moving into next year.
Newer Boxes i expect the biggest move up in the next 6 months
Price Target - $250 - Modern Horizons
Price Target - $150 - Guilds
Price Target - $120 - Alleg
Price Target - $120 - War
Price Target - $150 - Commander 2019
Conclusion - Magic as a whole is going to roar into the holidays. With a surprise product in December (unset or Cube set...maybe?) I think the public is underestimating how few people are going to sit on sealed product from 2020. The economic conditions are terrible for many people, while other sectors of the ecnomy of booming. This "great divide" is going to continue to spread the wealth in an extremly tilted manor in all markets including collectibles. Stores have the lowest inventory levels i have ever seen in magic. The constant opinion is small stores cannot keep up with the monthly releases and the cash flow required to sit on positions of products at this pace. Therefore, the market will experience harder price swings in the future due to lack of supply.
Be safe, Be Respectful, Stay the Damn Course no matter what.
Comments
Honestly I'd say it's more scarcity than the allure of misprints or ease of gameplay. Sure the misprints may be attracting Timmy's like Covid 19 Godzilla, but I'd say capitalizing on a scare in demand product is the only reason at this time, like the Nintendo Switch situation.
2020-07-25 21:53:55 +0000 UTCDo you think it's the ease of sealed play or potential for making a ton of money off of misprints that's driving sales and thus prices?
2020-07-25 16:04:50 +0000 UTCOrder has been placed, as far as I know... Stay tuned! I'm sure I screwed up somehow... It's a habit...
2020-07-25 01:02:42 +0000 UTCOne thing UMA had going for it was that ur as likely to get a $110 lily as a $10 lavaclaw. But in vip ur 2x likely to get lavaclaw. But id def be a buy at $50, no question, but at $100, feels very high risk gamble
2020-07-23 05:54:33 +0000 UTCHoping Jumpstart gets..., well, a jump start, in the near future. I know Rosewater said there will be more print if there is demand, but right now this product holds way too much price for the sealed booster which essentially contains boosters halfway filled with basic lands. It's honestly ironic that a product aimed at getting new players in the game, with gameplay in mind first over value, is going for more than a Theros Collector's Booster box, a product that was aimed for monetary gains and collectors. Also @Rudy! Hope to hear more Pokemon news if any comes up :)
2020-07-23 03:56:29 +0000 UTCSolid prognosis DR taco...floppy... whatever
2020-07-23 03:50:04 +0000 UTCHmmm Cube set. sounds like we will all be assimilated :-) I got dibs on being 7 of 10 so I can be close to 7 of 9 (meow) LOL
Philip Chiu
2020-07-23 03:22:47 +0000 UTCYou are correct. See Rudy's latest post giving 24 hour notice of sale.
Michael C
2020-07-23 02:30:27 +0000 UTCOdd. I thought it was that way originally, too.
Chris Doersen
2020-07-23 02:09:41 +0000 UTCYeah. Been pretty consistent so far. That’s a far way from from $50 a box though.
Chris Doersen
2020-07-23 02:06:54 +0000 UTCBox of four VIP Packs are now at $336 on eBay and looks like most are dropping their prices
Michael C
2020-07-23 01:16:16 +0000 UTCI don't think that the Double Masters VIP Boxes will be that affected AS LONG AS there is demand for the foil versions of the alternate art cards. If there is even okay demand for those cards, the prices will be higher than they are now. Just look at Ultimate Masters loose box toppers, which regularly sell for $90+ on eBay. If everyone bets against the VIP Boxes and they "tank" to $50, I'm buying as many as I possibly can afford.
Chris Doersen
2020-07-23 00:48:31 +0000 UTCI agree with you seth, i wonder how this changes the perception of vip. I think the normal boxes are still solid, but the vip looks worse and worse...
2020-07-22 23:44:51 +0000 UTCAnyone ever had booster boxes delivered destroyed? How was it handled?
michael rohrbaugh
2020-07-22 21:53:59 +0000 UTCOk these URZA lands in double masters are bringing me back in time. Love the new art
Derek
2020-07-22 20:35:10 +0000 UTCWotC gives us double lies for Double Masters, hurray! First they lie about the rarities in the packs (upshifted commons/uncommons), and now they've given us a lie-of-omission about Masters box toppers switching to having Rare and Mythics be different chances in the box topper packs.
2020-07-22 19:02:16 +0000 UTCRudy will probably update closer to the sale, but I suspect it'll be a "reply to this post with your order" after the clock strikes 9PM. He will reply to each patreons post to green light them to pay for their order, if he doesn't reply to your order post, then don't send any money. That's how he did it post Ikoria Collectors
2020-07-22 16:30:06 +0000 UTCI would count on it being a 2 box limit for double masters, and probably no limit on VIP... but maybe 1 box of 4 packs per patron. $100 per pack boosters are a bit spicy, even for us crazies.
2020-07-22 16:28:27 +0000 UTCThey go on sale tomorrow.
2020-07-22 15:19:34 +0000 UTCI want to order the Double Masters, but will not have the money until tomorrow... I imagine they will all be sold out by then, but such is life!
2020-07-22 15:14:15 +0000 UTCBut what about the Rudy profit, he needs his tacos too
Aaron Paolozzi
2020-07-22 14:32:16 +0000 UTCI'm hoping Rudy does these boxes right around the 270-280 mark. That would allow almost for sure locked in profits at 300$ a box also I would be able to crack a box for 180$ which feels real good
Michael L
2020-07-22 13:42:26 +0000 UTCI think you may have missed the point of this product as it’s meant to be something new players can grab and play. I wouldn’t recommend cracking since they contain enough land per two packs to build a deck...sooo yeah of course the rates are going to work that way. More land. Less everything else vs any other packs. Better if you want to run a tournament with your playgroup or something, that could be fun. Print is unlimited, people definitely should drop more than $120 imo. Just wait and the price should stabilize, it’s only whack because of the delays/availability
2020-07-22 03:01:03 +0000 UTCI find it interesting more people arent talking about Jumpstart booster boxes. One of the worst products in years imo. Yeah it has reprints but the problem is the boxes dont contain them at any reasonable rate. Disclaimer: I paid $80 a box. I opened 6 boxes. I was lucky to get 2 of the "rare" themes. I averaged 3 mythics per box. I got a gigaton of lands. The "double rare" packs are clumped exactly in the middle row and bottom left row of every box. You can literally pick them out. It is just like box toppers in Throne Collectors. They were pretty much the exact middle packs in every box. I hope to God nobody is buying loose packs. It is by far and away not worth even $150 a box. I wouldnt want to pay $120 a box. God help you if you paid $200 a box to crack them because you are going to have a sad time. Generally speaking the cracking experience is lame imo as well. You get a ton of lands as mentioned above, and you just dont get very many good pulls at all. This product is a huge stinker if you are cracking them. Its fun to play, but please everyone for the love of god dont pay $200 a box. Dont even pay $150. NOT worth it. You have been advised. Eat a taco and be merry
2020-07-22 02:34:38 +0000 UTCI love slivers so I hope this comes true!
2020-07-22 00:46:19 +0000 UTCThanks for the insightful post. Bittersweet with some exciting news and the struggle for LGS’s. Hoping for the best that most are able to survive these times. For 2020 to end with Zendikar is what I’m looking forward to the most. I recently got into MTG—Kiora first caught my eye, and after diving into her (limited) storyline that’s what got me hooked!! Can’t wait to see what’s in store for all of Zen
2020-07-22 00:42:36 +0000 UTCCalling it now. Special holiday set will be called “Sliver Bells”
2020-07-21 23:54:42 +0000 UTCStay the damn course people.
2020-07-21 23:04:40 +0000 UTCThanks for the great info Dood!!!
Violent Ken
2020-07-21 22:43:31 +0000 UTCor was it that EMA had a surprise second print run, and IMA and A25 were just final waves of the first print run? Any more detail is appreciated
Koda
2020-07-21 20:54:04 +0000 UTCWait, EMA IMA and M25 definitely had second print runs, didn't they? I can see VIP boxes being one and done, but I believe normal 2XM boxes are free fall for the time being, or is there evidence for the contrary?
Koda
2020-07-21 20:51:07 +0000 UTCI also will definitely be trying to snap up some Double Masters! I’m more of a Pokémon collector but, I have thoroughly enjoyed your content & have quickly got into Magic playing/collecting! :)
2020-07-21 20:46:34 +0000 UTCThanks for the update! I am definitely not surprised by the Pokémon information at all. Prices are going up daily now. It’s pretty wild that my raw card binder of hundreds of dollars worth of cards is now easily worth over 4,000 usd. Product isn’t even staying on the shelves in my rural MN town! That includes Magic & Yugioh too! This has been a wild year for cardboard. Lol
2020-07-21 20:45:09 +0000 UTCThis is another great update. For me, I wouldn’t buy Double Masters except that Rudy’s selling, and when Rudy sells I tend to buy. I like to pay Rudy.
Aaron
2020-07-21 20:35:54 +0000 UTCHow would I place an order on Thursday (Double Masters)?
2020-07-21 20:34:29 +0000 UTCI'm just here to lose my shit over zendikar. It was hard to limit myself on some of this stuff. Zendikar forever
2020-07-21 20:18:23 +0000 UTCDo you know what kind of limit if any there will be? I am looking to get 6 boxes, and want to plan accordingly if you have a limit :).
Ken Kugelman
2020-07-21 20:03:44 +0000 UTCI got some 2XM draft for $279 shipped so if Rudy is close to that, I wouldn't mind a top-off order. I preordered VIP at an LGS but it doesn't look like there is a WPN buy a box promo this go around unless they want to wait until the last minute. MH1 is still running for about $180 if you look round.
2020-07-21 19:35:30 +0000 UTC"These items will ship separatly, and will sell out quickly."
Fasty
2020-07-21 19:27:52 +0000 UTCAnyone else hear that the Transformers TCG has been discontinued by WotC? https://wpn.wizards.com/en/article/titan-masters-attack-transformers-tcg-final-release
Quinn Knobbe
2020-07-21 19:17:42 +0000 UTCThank you, Rudy! You always do a great job on these middle of the month info posts, and I do love reading them. I find the rumor of Wizards doing a "hard cut off/out of print on 5 products" next month very interesting. My biggest question is - what is the list of products that are currently "in print"? Since print runs are done in batches that are decided on and ordered (or not ordered) based on the sales data, I find it difficult to figure out what would qualify for this. Anyone know a list of the products that are currently in print? Thanks, all!
Galloway Morris
2020-07-21 19:16:39 +0000 UTCThanks for the update Big Floppy Taco Man. 😁👍Staying the Course 100%.
2020-07-21 19:11:23 +0000 UTCWell hopefully when I come back from... my extended business trip... You'll still have a few standard boxes I can order. :)
Grey Shirt Guy
2020-07-21 19:11:06 +0000 UTCDo you expect to sell out of Double Masters boxes quickly like with Ikoria and Core 2021 Collector boxes? I ask because i was hoping to get some boxes but it wont be in the budget for me till next month.
Nicholas Intersimone
2020-07-21 18:49:00 +0000 UTCPosts like this, make me Dang proud to be a patreon. Cheers and ty!
2020-07-21 18:43:38 +0000 UTCThanks for the update Rudy. Will there be a separate date and purchase for box openings of either regular or VIP?
Eric Ayers
2020-07-21 18:32:43 +0000 UTCCorrect, EST
2020-07-21 18:30:09 +0000 UTCSale times are in est correct?
2020-07-21 18:27:39 +0000 UTCAs always, Thank you for the insight and being a pillar of reason in this community. Your efforts are truly appreciated. Keep up the solid work, Rudy.
2020-07-21 18:27:13 +0000 UTCGreat update we appreciate you Rudy!!
2020-07-21 18:22:41 +0000 UTCAwesome post Rudy. Lots of good info. You must have eaten a lot of tacos beforehand LOL. Again while I'm not a big fan of banning, not on cards per se but of banning artists like Terese Nielsen, whose work I really enjoy. It's a shame that WOTC has now denied others from viewing and enjoying her art and her rare gifted talents. I actually purchased several playmats that you had displayed on your recent videos (Force of Will, Descendant's path, Hanna Ship's Navigator) as well as prints from her as support. Anyway, I need to come up with more $$$ to buy Double Masters LOL
Philip Chiu
2020-07-21 18:18:34 +0000 UTCThis isnt new exactly, if he sold individual boxes he would be paying way more for shipping, and have to make many more trips to the post or having the post pick up. logistically its just more economic and reasonable to sell in two packs. You could buy the two on a credit card and then sell the other box on your own, or you could open it and have a fun time and then sell the singles when youre done is usually what i do.
TehTechnoGuy
2020-07-21 18:17:32 +0000 UTCAlways appreciate the update!
Sangmin Lee
2020-07-21 18:12:45 +0000 UTCWhy not..... DOUBLE your original purchase plan. 😏
2020-07-21 18:08:55 +0000 UTCTy for these awesome updates Rudy
Jonathan Morris
2020-07-21 18:07:11 +0000 UTCCore 21 collector boxes I meant
2020-07-21 18:06:37 +0000 UTCI think it will be comment first, to prevent another Ikoria scenario.
2020-07-21 18:06:33 +0000 UTCI had Rudy always done 2 boxes on this type of product or is this a new thing? Some of us can’t afford that so asking the older patrons if this is the way it is? Thanks...yes I see vip master looks like 1 box sale but jumpstart was 3 core 21 was multiple etc
2020-07-21 18:05:59 +0000 UTCWill it be the comment first system, or through PayPal? Thanks Rudy!
Daniel Le
2020-07-21 18:02:43 +0000 UTCHe put he will sell the box with 4. I think only one per patreon.
Yoyigo Tintor
2020-07-21 18:02:08 +0000 UTCOn the day of the sale.
2020-07-21 18:01:24 +0000 UTCI don't need a new recliner or couch! I have all these booster boxes! 😏
2020-07-21 17:58:27 +0000 UTCI would buy this shirt.
Ryan Shaw
2020-07-21 17:58:14 +0000 UTCGod bless and Godspeed, ty always Rudy, and to all others; stay the course. Be safe, and be more aware, less paranoid.
Brian
2020-07-21 17:56:58 +0000 UTCDefinitely wanting to get double masters. Thanks for the update rudy
2020-07-21 17:56:53 +0000 UTCThat’s a big estimate on Guilds. I’d be shocked if it went that high that quick.
Andy Wilkes
2020-07-21 17:56:49 +0000 UTCWHEN ARE YOU GOING TO SELL YOUR SIGNED, SOFT-TORTILLA PLAYMATS TO YOUR PATRONS?
DuGiOh
2020-07-21 17:56:40 +0000 UTCWell I'm boarding the hype train it seems!!
Steven
2020-07-21 17:56:36 +0000 UTCRudy, do you know yet the quantity you'll be selling VIP edition boxes in?
2020-07-21 17:55:37 +0000 UTCI really want these Double Masters boxes. Was going to buy 2 anyway. One to pop and one to hold onto. Maybe I’ll get 3🤔
2020-07-21 17:55:22 +0000 UTCNext T-shirt printing “Stay the Damn Course...No Matter What!”
2020-07-21 17:55:05 +0000 UTCI think I'll just wait on Zendikar. For some reason double masters isn't doing it for me like Ultimate or MM17
Marcos Rivera (Jedi168)
2020-07-21 17:53:57 +0000 UTCReally nervous about having the capital for two boxes, but I have a few days to sleep on it, thanks rudy!
TehTechnoGuy
2020-07-21 17:53:07 +0000 UTCThanks for the info Rudy. Stay the course.
wintoch
2020-07-21 17:52:54 +0000 UTCThanks for the update, but how much for an extra year floppy taco?
Jeremy Kennedy
2020-07-21 17:52:15 +0000 UTCneed tp know how much i should have on hand for double masters and floppy tacos
Eric Tracy-Cohen
2020-07-21 17:52:07 +0000 UTCDouble masters in two days, already? So many products
Kevin Hamilton
2020-07-21 17:51:46 +0000 UTC
