November 5th, 2024: Cole, Weaver, Rizzo, Trammell, Trivino

Thanks in part to old pals Tyler Austin and Mike Ford, the 71-69-3 Yokohama DeNA BayStars defeated the heavily favored 91-49-3 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the Japan Series this past weekend. The BayStars won four straight to overcome a 2-0 series deficit, and they had a 29-inning shutout streak at one point during the series. Austin has been very productive during his five seasons with Yokohama, including hitting .316/.382/.601 with 25 homers in 2024. Ford joined the team in July after the Reds released him. Those two were teammates at a few stops in the minors with the Yankees once upon a time. I always knew they’d one day lead their team to a championship. ANYWAY, let’s get to today’s post, shall we? Sorry it’s shorter than usual. I took it easy this weekend after working non-stop in October.

1. Latest roster moves. It has not even been a week since the Yankees forgot how to play baseball for an inning and lost the World Series, though already several important offseason deadlines have passed. The GM Meetings are this week too. Those usually bring some hot stove chatter. Maybe even a trade or two. Here are the roster decisions the Yankees made over the weekend. 

Cole opts out, Yankees call his bluff

On Saturday, Gerrit Cole triggered his opt out according to all the trustworthy reporters, and tentatively walked away from the final four years and $144M ($36M per year) on his contract. That gave the Yankees until Monday to either let Cole become a free agent, or add one year and $36M to the deal to void the opt out. I think almost everyone assumed the Yankees would add the extra year and be done with it.

That did not happen. Monday evening it was reported Cole agreed to remain with the Yankees on the terms of his original contract, so the remaining four years and $144M. The Yankees did not add the extra year. It’s like Cole never opted out. They called his bluff, eh? Cole and Scott Boras figured the Yankees would roll over and give them the extra year, they said nope, then Boras was like uh, we’re just kidding!

I have no idea whether it actually went down like that but it seems plausible, no? Why would Cole trigger the opt out only to roll it back two days later? You don’t have to try too hard to come up with a case for letting him walk either. Cole turned 34 in September, his velocity and his swings and misses are trending down …

… and injuries popped up this year. Cole missed the first 75 games with nerve inflammation in his elbow and also had a start skipped with what the Yankees called “general body fatigue” in July. And it was kinda weird the Yankees didn’t let him throw even 90 pitches in the postseason until their season was on the line in Game 5 against the Dodgers, no? It’s not like the bullpen was well-rested in October.

Had they picked up the option, the Yankees would have owed Cole another $180M across five years. The obvious comp is Jacob deGrom, who signed a five-year deal worth $185M with the Rangers when he was one year older than Cole is right now. deGrom, like Cole this year, missed time with an injury in his contract year. His track record was shorter than Cole’s (by like 700 innings) but deGrom’s peak is almost unmatched in baseball history. Peak deGrom was insane. He’s also made nine starts in the first two years of his Rangers contract, so yeah.

If not the Yankees, where were Boras and Cole getting five years and $180M this offseason? Maybe the Mets. Maybe the Dodgers. Maybe the Cubs had they decided to spend. Otherwise I’m not sure the Astros, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, and Red Sox are swimming in those waters. Possible, sure, but I would have been surprised. A lot of teams just aren’t going to go there given the injuries and velocity trend.

The Yankees and Cole reportedly agreed to discuss an extension down the road, though agreeing to talk about extension and agreeing to an extension are not the same thing. Boras has been badgering the Phillies about a Bryce Harper extension for years and the Phillies have been like yeah, whatever. He’s already under contract. They’re under no obligation to extend him. The same applies to Cole.

So, Cole remains with the Yankees on the terms of his original contract, and we spent all that time thinking about the opt out for nothing. There are some red flags here, that’s inevitable with pitchers Cole’s age and with his career workload, but he’s also smart and talented enough to make adjustments to remain effective moving forward. His days as a true ace may be nearing an end, but there’s a wide range of possibilities between “ace” and “unrosterable.”

"(We were not) necessarily comfortable doing (the extra year)," Brian Cashman told Brendan Kuty. "But we wanted our player and our ace back, and he certainly didn’t want to go."

Soto gets qualifying offer

And only Juan Soto. The Yankees didn’t make Gleyber Torres the qualifying offer, which isn’t too surprising. The Yankees have been very stingy with qualifying offers for non-elite players, seemingly preferring the financial flexibility (i.e. not have someone unexpectedly take the $20M+ salary) to the extra draft pick. In this case, that’s a draft pick after the fourth round given their luxury tax status. Not exactly a premium pick, you know?

The qualifying offer is worth $21.05M this offseason and Soto is obviously turning that down. It would be close to a $10M pay cut for him. If he leaves, the Yankees get that draft pick after the fourth round. I hope he doesn’t. I assume the Cole situation would've played out differently if the Yankees didn’t have enough money for him and Soto. Now they just have to win a bidding war to keep the great Juan. As for Torres, well, it’s been real. Chances are pretty good we’re sitting here in 10 months and the Yankees’ second base situation has us saying damn, wish they'd kept Gleyber.

(Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Alex Verdugo were the other Yankees eligible for the qualifying offer. None were worth a $21.05M roll of the dice.)

Yankees exercise Weaver’s option

The single easiest decision of the offseason was picking up Luke Weaver’s $2.5M club option, and the Yankees did that Friday. Weaver, 31, emerged as a bona fide relief ace this year, throwing 84 innings with a 2.89 ERA (3.33 FIP) and a 31.1 K%. He was the first Yankees’ reliever to strike out 100 batters since Dellin Betances in 2018. On the open market, Weaver’s a $10M+ a year reliever.

We now know Weaver will be around to anchor the 2025 bullpen. What the bullpen looks like around him, I don’t know. Tim Hill, Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Tommy Kahnle are all free agents. This is the current bullpen using only guys currently under contract and team control:

• Closer: RHP Luke Weaver

• Setup: RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Mark Leiter Jr.

• Middle: RHP Jake Cousins, RHP Scott Effross, RHP Yoendrys Gómez

• Long: RHP JT Brubaker, RHP Cody Poteet

Not great. The Yankees have some work to do on their bullpen this offseason. I can’t say I expect them to add a big ticket reliever (Ryan Helsley? Jeff Hoffman? Devin Williams?), that doesn’t seem to be their thing anymore, but they’ll bring in bullpen arms. They always do. For now, Weaver’s back on a bargain contract, and he’ll be expected to get big outs next year no matter who the Yankees surround him with.

Rizzo’s club option declined

I wasn’t sure the Yankees would do this until they actually did, but they did it. They declined Anthony Rizzo’s $17M club option Saturday and instead paid him a $6M buyout. For luxury tax purposes, it’s $0 in 2025. The buyout is guaranteed money and was taxed during the guaranteed years of the contract. In English, it means the Yankees were already taxed on the buyout. It’s done and paid for.

Rizzo slashed .228/.301/.335 (84 wRC+) this year and .209/.291/.298 (70 wRC+) in almost 600 plate appearances since the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. His defense has slipped as well. On routine plays, right? Rizzo muffed grounders, things like that. Collectively, Yankees’ first basemen were among the least productive in franchise history in 2024. This is awful:

• AVG: .216 (seventh worst in Yankees history)

• OBP: .284 (fourth worst)

• SLG: .335 (fourth worst)

• OPS+: 69 (sixth worst)

• HR: 16 (fewest since 2007)

The Yankees got more home runs from their first basemen during the 60-game pandemic season than they did during the 162-game season in 2024. They hit 23 in 2020 (Luke Voit led MLB with 22). There is more to life than homers, but going the last three months without even the threat of a dinger at FIRST BASE really sucked. The offensive bar at the position at high and the Yankees came in well under it.

The good news then is that it won’t take much for the Yankees to upgrade at the position. Even an average first baseman would be an enormous upgrade. I hope they aim higher than that, adding an above-average first baseman could equal an additional 4-5 wins. Maybe more. Pete Alonso and Christian Walker are the top free agents. Yandy Díaz and Josh Naylor the top trade chips. Naylor, eh? That’d be something.

Yankees add three to 40-man, trade Trammell

The Yankees added three depth players to the 40-man roster Sunday: RHP Yerry De Los Santos, UTIL J.C. Escarra, and OF Taylor Trammell. All three were scheduled to become minor league free agents Monday, so the Yankees had to put them on the 40-man this weekend to retain them. They couldn’t wait until Nov. 19th to add them with all the other Rule 5 Draft eligible players.

In Trammell’s case, the Yankees added him to the 40-man so they could trade him. He went to the Astros for cash on Monday. I was surprised Trammell was added to the 40-man initially, though the Yankees could’ve always DFAed him later. If you think you might need him, keep him. Turns out they had a trade lined up instead. A little cash is better than the nothing they would’ve gotten had Trammell been allowed to become a free agent.

De Los Santos, 27 next month, had a statistically unimpressive season with Triple-A Scranton: 4.12 ERA (4.70 FIP) with 21.3 K%, 7.4 BB%, and 50.2 GB% in 59 innings. He’s a mid-90s sinker/slider/changeup reliever and Triple-A Stuff+ says it’s a very good sinker with average-ish secondaries. I thought he might be a guy last spring, though it never came together. De Los Santos has options remaining, so welcome to the bullpen shuttle, Yerry. Maybe he’ll be the next Jake Cousins or Ian Hamilton.

I mentioned Escarra in the Rule 5 Draft section of the Offseason Calendar and he’s an interesting dude. He told Matt Kardos he nearly quit baseball when the Orioles released him in 2021, but he decided to continue playing in an independent league in 2022, and focused on catching. Escarra played in the Mexican League in 2023, the Yankees saw him, and were interested enough to sign him last offseason.

“For five years (with the Orioles) I didn’t put on a single set of catcher’s gear. I didn’t even catch a bullpen,” Escarra told Kardos. “I was a first baseman only and I did pretty well, but my numbers weren’t great enough to get that call up to Baltimore when I was in Triple-A in 2021. After getting released, I knew that I could hold my own behind the plate, and from there on is when I started catching.”

Escarra is not young, he turns 30 in April, but he slashed .261/.355/.434 (119 wRC+) with 12 homers and nearly as many walks (11.2%) as strikeouts (13.8%) between Double-A and Triple-A this year. Here are his Triple-A percentiles:

• 90th percentile exit velocity: 59th

• Max exit velocity: 52nd

• Pulled fly balls: 81st

• Chase rate: 92nd

• In-zone contact: 90th

• SEAGER: 58th

Escarra is a left-handed hitter who pulls the ball in the air a ton, and neither chases nor swings and misses excessively. He also rated as an above-average pitch-framer and an average-ish blocker and thrower. And! And Escarra also played a bunch of first and third bases, and some left and right fields. A lefty hitting infield corners guy who can also catch and play the corner outfield in a pinch could be a nifty bench piece.

De Los Santos is a textbook shuttle reliever who fits the Yankees’ preferred profile as a plus sinker guy. I’m irrationally excited about Escarra even though I know he’s likely just an up/down bench guy. He’s a good story and easy to root for, and he looks like potentially a useful piece too. Sure would be something if Escarra became a bench mainstay.

Trivino’s club option declined

The Yankees tried the “sign an injured guy and hope he can help you later” thing with Lou Trivino, and came up empty. He was limited to 11 mostly ineffective minor league rehab innings around multiple Tommy John surgery setbacks this year. The Yankees signed Trivino right as Spring Training opened, paid him $1.5M to sit on the 60-day injured list all year, then declined his $5M club option Sunday. There is no buyout. Trivino, 33, has not appeared in the big leagues since 2022, when he had a 4.53 ERA (3.63 FIP) in 53.2 innings for the Athletics and Yankees. His next contract will presumably be a minor league deal, maybe even with the Yankees.

Ellis outrighted

And finally, designated pinch-runner Duke Ellis cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man roster Monday, the Yankees say. This was inevitable. That’s not a guy you need to keep on your 40-man all winter. I’m pretty sure Ellis will be a minor league free agent, not that it’s a big deal either way. The Yankees currently have 35 players on the 40-man roster. That’s with all the 60-day injured list guys being activated and whatnot. Five open spots.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. No Yankees won Gold Gloves this year. Bobby Witt Jr. beat out Anthony Volpe, Steven Kwan beat out Alex Verdugo, and Wilyer Abreu beat out Juan Soto. I can’t remember where I read it, but apparently only six AL right fielders met the eligibility criteria (698 innings through the team’s first 138 games), in case you’re wondering why Soto was a finalist. First time the Yankees have not had a Gold Glove winner since 2021, unless you count Joey Gallo’s partial season in pinstripes that year … If you care about such things, the Yankees have four Silver Slugger finalists: Soto and Aaron Judge in the outfield, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Gleyber Torres at second. There are four finalists at second base and three at the other infield positions for some reason. Whatever. Judge and Soto will win. Stanton and Torres will not. Silver Sluggers will be announced next Tuesday … And finally, the Hall of Fame’s Classic Baseball Committee ballot is out. Two of the eight people on the ballot have Yankees ties: Tommy John and Luis Tiant. Between his playing career and the revolutionary surgery that bears his name, John should be in the Hall of Fame, I think. Both him and Dr. Frank Jobe, who first performed the surgery. You can not tell the story of the sport without Tommy John surgery. That must be recognized in Cooperstown. The Classic Baseball Committee is a group of 16 Hall of Famers, executives, and historians. The voting results will be announced Dec. 8th, the Sunday before the Winter Meetings begin.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)