Thoughts before Game 4 of the World Series

The Yankees have 1-4 games remaining in their season and they almost certainly will not win the World Series, but they won four straight games and the Dodgers lost four straight games plenty of times this year. Stranger things have happened (have they though?). The path to a comeback is obvious:

• Aaron Judge must make an impact. I don’t just mean poke a single or take a walk. He has to move the needle in a big way. A homer, multiple hits with men on base, etc.

• Every hitter other than Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton must wake up. Those two are hitting .311/.406/.700 (201 wRC+) in the postseason. The rest of the Yankees: .199/.308/.290 (75 wRC+).

• Luis Gil has to pitch well. Certainly better than Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt. The MLB leader in walks against one of baseball’s most disciplined lineups is a rough matchup though.

• The bullpen must remain stout. Those guys have been so good the last two games. They put up zero after zero and gave the offense a chance to get back into Games 2 and 3.

• The Yankees have to play a tight, clean game. No dumb baserunning, no defensive mistakes, no bad sends by the third base coach, etc. I’m not sure if they’re capable of this, but it’s necessary.

• Get a little lucky. At this point, the Yankees need to play well and also catch some breaks. A call goes their way, a lucky bounce, the Dodgers make an error, etc. They need help.

Judge went 0-for-3 with a walk in Game 3 and is 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts in the World Series. The walk was his first unintentional walk in 33 plate appearances. Since Game 1 of the ALCS. I mean, how? That is the surest sign the postseason (lack of) performance is in Judge’s head as much as his mechanics. Even when he slumps during the regular season, he still takes his walks, but not now.

In Game 3, Judge walked and also drove a ball to the outfield, something he hadn’t done in a while, so we just have to hope those are signs he’s about to snap out of it. That’s what we’ve been reduced to. Hoping a player who is, objectively, the best hitter in the world, is snapping out of it because he took ball four and hit a ball hard in the air. The Yankees are down 3-0 for many reasons. Judge is easily No. 1.

(Since 2017, Judge is a .291/.409/.611 (176 wRC+) hitter in the regular season and a .196/.303/.430 (98 wRC+) hitter in the postseason. Maybe I’ll do the research to confirm this one day, but that has to be one of the worst postseason performances relative to regular season performance in baseball history among players with 250+ postseason plate appearances. Call it what it is: Judge is one of the worst postseason performers ever.)

You have to squint, but you can see the path to sending the series back to Los Angeles. Beat the Dodgers and their bullpen game in Game 4, give the ball to Gerrit Cole in Game 5, and there you go. The Yankees have to hit though. They sleep walked (slept walk?) through innings 1-8 in Games 2 and 3 before a too little, too late rally in the ninth. I guess it’s good they showed fight late, but it ain’t enough.

The Yankees haven’t had a lead since the tenth inning of Game 1. They need to play from ahead for once. Score early, play with a lead, and maybe everyone settles down and settles in. Some of these at-bats the last two games have been atrocious. Look at the fastballs the Yankees took in Game 3:

That’s 29 sinkers and four-seamers taken for called strikes. Some bad calls there*, sure, but 29 fastballs taken for strikes. The last time the Yankees took 29 sinkers and four-seamers for called strikes was Sept. 18th, 2020, and that was a 12-inning game. The last time they did it in a nine-inning game was March 31st, 2019. That was 786 regular season and postseason games ago.

* The umpiring has been really bad this World Series, no? For both teams. I usually don’t make a big deal about the umps, it’s a hard job and they’re the best umpires in the world, but this is a rough look for MLB in the World Series.

I have to give the Dodgers credit. They’ve shown the Yankees a lot of spin (40.2% breaking balls in three games) and they’ve completely fouled up their approach. The Yankees are sitting on spin and letting hittable fastballs go by. It’s hard not to admire the Dodgers. Their game planning and execution is so good. They have elite talent and they elevate it with elite planning and execution. It’s really something.

One game at a time, one at-bat at a time, one pitch at a time, blah blah blah yadda yadda yadda. It’s time to hope for a miracle. The Yankees are down 3-0 because they deserve to be down 3-0, and even just forcing a Game 5 will require a complete reversal of their play through three games. They have to hit better, they have to pitch better, they have to defend better, they have to run the bases better. Other than that, the Yankees have the Dodgers right where they want them.