Thoughts before Game 3 of the 2024 World Series

It is not a literal must-win, but Game 3 Monday night is a must-win. It will be hard enough to beat the Dodgers four times in five games. Four times in four games will be impossible. Games 1 and 2 of the World Series were close games that were one swing away from being advantage Yankees, but there are so silver linings this time of year. Results are the only thing that matters and the Yankees are down 2-0. Here are the updated ZiPS World Series odds:

Historically, teams with a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 84% of the time, so ZiPS gives the Yankees better odds than history. ZiPS doesn’t know that Aaron Judge is beyond useless at the plate right now though, or that the manager considers the tenth inning of a World Series game a good time to get an injured pitcher some work. If the Yankees lose the World Series, I’m not sure I’ll ever get over the most important inning of the season going to injured Nestor Cortes and the most important at-bat of the season going to Jose Trevino, both by choice.

Anyway, the Yankees are finally – finally – back in the Bronx. They haven’t played a home game in 13 days. They’ve played four home games and seven road games this postseason. I know that’s how the schedule works. It just sucks to finish with the best record in the league and still spend October as road warriors. I am certain the crowd will be electric to start Game 3. I am also certain the vibes will shift to grouchy real quick if the Yankees do not get on the board and/or fall behind early. Patience is wearing thin. Here are a few thoughts before the must-win Game 3.

Game 3 on Monday: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Walker Buehler (8pm ET on FOX)

1. Judge’s disastrous World Series. Aaron Judge is in a place right now where his swing mechanics are out of whack – he keeps flying open with his front hip – and he’s pressing as well. His sixth inning at-bat against Yoshinobu Yamamoto tells you all you need to know. Judge took two pitches off the plate, took a 2-0 fastball right down the middle, then eventually struck out on a splitter in and off the plate. Here’s the video. That is a man who is thinking instead of reacting, and unsure of himself at the plate.

“It always can be a little bit of a mechanical thing when guys go through a little funk,” Aaron Boone said about Judge after Game 2. “When they're just easily getting into their move and firing, then that's when you make your best swing decisions … It's just about getting in a good position. When you get into that good – and everyone's different in how they do it – you get in that strong position, that load where then the swing decisions follow that. I think he's kind of working through that. Once that happens, it happens like that.”

Here are the pitches Judge has seen through two World Series games. The pattern is obvious:

Judge has seen 43 pitches in the two games and only 16 fastballs. The Dodgers are going after him with spin down in the zone and even lower than that – those middle-middle pitchers were mistakes Judge either fouled off or swung through – and every so often they show him a fastball up to change his eye level. The Dodgers are telling Judge that, if he’s going to beat them, it’ll have to be on a breaking ball down.

“It definitely eats at you,” Judge told Bryan Hoch about his awful October. “You want to contribute and help the team, but that’s why you gotta keep working and keep swinging. I can’t sit here and feel bad for myself. Nobody’s feeling bad for me.”

Because he’s pressing, Judge is chasing more, and chasing more means more whiffs. During the regular season he ran an 18.5% chase rate, second lowest in baseball behind Juan Soto. His swinging strike rate was tick higher than league average 12.9%, and you can live with more whiffs than the average hitter when they come with a .458 OBP and 58 homers. In the postseason though, Judge has a 28.1% chase rate and a 22.8% (!) swinging strike rate. He’s flailing away hopelessly and he knows it.

“I think it’s trying to make things happen instead of letting the game come to you,” Judge told Hoch. “You see Gleyber out there on base, Juan is getting on base, doing things, you want to try to make something happen. But if you’re not going to get a pitch in the zone, you’ve got to just take your walks instead. Plain and simple, I’ve got to start swinging at strikes.”

Judge has one walk in his last six games and 30 plate appearances and that just isn’t Aaron Judge. The guy has walked more than once every six plate appearances over the last three seasons. Now he has one walk in his last 30 plate appearances. And it’s not like he hasn’t had a chance to walk. 47.0% of the pitches he’s seen in the postseason were in the zone, lower than his 47.9% regular season rate. The walks are there to be taken, and Judge isn’t taking them. He’s getting himself out by chasing.

Judge is hitting .150/.280/.325 (68 wRC+) with a 38.0 K% in October and I gotta believe the 150-point gap between his regular season 218 wRC+ and postseason 68 wRC+ is one of the largest in history among players with at least 50 postseason plate appearances, if not the largest. This is a legacy series for Judge. The regular season heroics get forgotten real quick when you come up small in the World Series. The opposite is true too. Bad regular seasons are forgiven when you perform in October.

I am going to say it again: The Yankees can not win this series without Judge making an impact. It was a 50/50 toss up series when the projection systems expected Judge to be AARON JUDGE. This late in the game, there is so saving Judge’s postseason batting line. All he can do is make a difference in Games 3-7. It must start Monday night. This is it. Another quiet game for Judge and it’ll be about time to lay the 2024 Yankees to rest. Judge isn’t the only reason the Yankees are down 2-0, but he is the biggest.

“It’s all about one at-bat,” Soto told Hoch. “I know it’s tough, but I feel like when you’re a hitter like him, he’s one of the greatest. I feel like it’s only going to take one at-bat for him to lock in and be on it.”

(I don’t think moving Judge down in the lineup accomplishes anything. That’s a Hail Mary, not really a plan. Judge has to hit, and if he doesn't, it won't matter where he is in the lineup.)

2. Lack of power hitters hurting the Yankees. It’s a weird thing to say about the team that led baseball with 237 home runs during the regular season, but the Yankees have been hurt by a lack of power hitters this series, especially with Aaron Judge doing nothing. Some quick numbers:

• The Yankees have hit 15 homers in 11 postseason games. Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton have 10 of the 15.

• Six different Yankees have gone deep in the postseason. Ten different Dodgers have hit a home run, by comparison.

• Only three Yankees have hit multiple homers this postseason. Nine different Dodgers have hit multiple homers.

Too many lineup spots are dedicated to players who can’t hit the ball out of the ballpark. Alex Verdugo doesn't hit for power. Anthony Rizzo seems physically incapable of driving the ball. Gleyber Torres’ power dipped this year. Austin Wells has been terrible for two months now. Someone had the brilliant idea to sacrifice Anthony Volpe’s 20-homer power and turn him into a singles hitter on the slowest team in baseball. The Yankees have neither the speed nor the baserunning acumen to play the singles game, but dammit they're going to try anyway.

The Yankees hit 237 homers during the regular season and Judge, Soto, and Stanton combined to hit 126 of them, or 53.2%. Is that a lot? Reader, yes it is. Here are the teams with the highest percentage of home runs coming from their top three home run hitters:

1. Yankees: 53.2% (Judge, Soto, Stanton)
2. Dodgers: 46.8% (Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernández, Freddie Freeman)
3. Phillies: 46.0% (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos)
4. Athletics: 46.0% (Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler)
5. Royals: 45.9% (Bobby Witt Jr., Sal Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino)
…
MLB average: 42.5%
…
30. Twins: 33.9% (Carlos Santana, Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton)

The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 22. The offense and particularly the power production has been top heavy all season. This is not news to you and it has continued into the postseason. With Judge out of sorts, Soto and Stanton are the only threats to hit the ball out of the park, and two power bats ain’t enough to beat the Dodgers.

Look at the ninth inning of Game 2. The Yankees sent seven batters to the plate and four reached base, but it was one base at a time (three singles and a hit-by-pitch). They needed someone to put a ball over the fence or at least find a gap, not simply keep the line moving with singles. How are you supposed to erase a three-run deficit playing station-to-station baseball against some of the nastiest relievers on Earth?

Two games into the World Series, the Yankees have 14 hits and the Dodgers have 15, but the Dodgers have a 35-21 advantage in total bases. The Yankees are slugging .296 with a 15.9% swinging strike rate. The Dodgers are at .547 and 8.5%, respectively. That’s the series right there. The offense is too top heavy, has been all year, and the problem has been exacerbated this postseason by the heaviest piece being a zero at the plate. The Dodgers’ lineup is dangerous one through nine in a way the Yankees’ lineup just isn’t.

3. Schmidt’s big chance. The biggest advantage the Yankees have in the World Series, on paper, is their rotation. Gerrit Cole was really good in Game 1, but the offense and bullpen blew it. Carlos Rodón stunk in Game 2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was terrific. It’ll be Clarke Schmidt vs. Walker Buehler in Game 3, though it’s really Schmidt vs. Dodgers’ offense and Buehler vs. Yankees’ offense.

“Obviously it's a dream come true being able to pitch the first game at home in a pivotal game,” Schmidt said about Game 3. “… I'm obviously very excited to get out there, but I know I have a job to do. We're trying to win this World Series. I think for me I'm just trying to go out there and execute and do my job.”

Schmidt’s first two postseason starts were almost identical: Two runs in 4.2 innings on 71-78 pitches both times out. That is quintessential third starter production in the postseason these days. Third starters aren’t allowed to go through the lineup a third time and they get pulled at the first sign of trouble. As for Buehler, it’s been tough sledding. He came back from his second Tommy John surgery in May and his stuff has been way down, and hasn’t rebounded.

• 2021 (last full healthy season): 2.47 ERA (3.16 FIP) with 117 Stuff+ and 6.3 IP per GS

• 2024 regular season: 5.38 ERA (5.54 FIP) with 93 Stuff+ and 4.7 IP per GS

• 2024 postseason: 6.00 ERA (4.61 FIP) and 4.5 IP per GS

Buehler is tough as nails, that guy will challenge any hitter even with diminished stuff, but that doesn’t mean he’s stupid. He’s thrown 167 pitches in his two postseason starts and only 74 fastballs. Buehler is leaning on his sweeper and curveball, and also his cutter, which is like a little baby slider. The Yankees have seen 47% fastballs in the World Series. The Dodgers are going after them (all of them, not just Aaron Judge) with spin. That’ll continue with Buehler in Game 3 and the rest of the series, really.

The Dodgers have a bullpen game lined up for Game 4. It is imperative the Yankees work Buehler hard and get him out of the game early, something they were unable to do against Flaherty and Yamamoto. Winning Game 3 is of paramount importance, and to have the best chance to come back in the series, the Yankees need to win Game 3 in a way that also sets them up well for Game 4. That means getting Buehler out early and forcing the Dodgers to use their bullpen heavily the day before a bullpen game.

As for Schmidt, I mean, what more is there to say other than that he needs to pitch well? I’m not expecting a heroic performance, though I would love it. The Legend of October Schmidt has a nice ring to it. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they’d be happy with another 4.2 innings of two-run ball from Schmidt in Game 3. I hope he can do more, but whatever. Just win the game regardless of whether Schmidt goes eight innings or 4.2 innings or 1.1 innings.

“Obviously very excited, and I'm trying to do my best to take as much in without trying to – I'm trying to be as present as I possibly can,” Schmidt said. “There will probably be time for reflection when this is all over, but right now just very focused on my job.”

4. Rapid fire thoughts. I think something’s up with Gerrit Cole. He’s obviously healthy enough to pitch and pitch well, but I don’t think he’s 100%, and not in a “no one is 100% this time of year” way. Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch that Cole “was done” after 88 pitches in Game 1, he hasn’t thrown even 90 pitches in over a month, and October 2024 is the worst swing-and-miss month of his career.

Again, Cole is healthy enough to pitch and pitch pretty well, but not throwing even 90 pitches in a start in over a month now? And a career low swing-and-miss rate? That’s a little red flag-y. Cole had to skip a start with “general body fatigue” in late July. Perhaps he’s not recovering well between starts and the Yankees are managing it as well as they can? Welcome to your mid-30s, Gerrit. Everything hurts a little more and a little longer … Two games in, the Yankees haven’t done anything to test Freddie Freeman at first base. No bunts, nothing like that. Freeman is mashing, which is a pretty good sign his ankle feels better, but the Yankees have put zero pressure on him and his injured ankle. If Shohei Ohtani has to miss time with his shoulder injury (seems unlikely), I suspect the Dodgers would put Freeman at DH to get him off the ankle, and put Max Muncy at first and Enrique Hernández at third. That was the alignment they used when Freeman sat earlier this postseason … And finally, Alex Verdugo is 5-for-35 (.143) since going 2-for-3 in ALDS Game 1. If the Yankees go down 3-0 in the World Series, they should just throw Jasson Domínguez out in left field and try to get some offense out of the position. They’ve got nothing to lose at that point. The defense-first gambit in left field ain’t working.