Thoughts after Game 5 of the 2024 ALCS

The New York Yankees are World Series bound. Saturday night October G and the generational Juan Soto led the Yankees to a 5-2 win over the Guardians in Game 5 of the ALCS. It took 10 innings. Also, the bullpen. All those dudes are on fumes and they were great in Game 5. We don’t know who the Yankees will play yet – the Dodgers have a 3-2 lead over the Mets and Game 6 is Sunday night – but we do know the World Series will begin Friday, on Soto’s 26th birthday. Let’s dig into Game 5, shall we?

1. There can only be Juan. Juan Soto never should have batted in the tenth inning. Austin Wells, who has had an awful postseason overall, worked a walk after falling behind in the count 1-2 to Hunter Gaddis. Alex Verdugo then did what he does, and rolled over on a weak ground ball. This one to Andrés Giménez at second. Giménez flipped the ball to Bryan Rocchio to start the 4-6-3 double play.

Except Rocchio did not catch the ball. It was a good flip right to his glove. Rocchio just whiffed (video). The ground ball was hit slow enough that it wasn’t a slam dunk double play, but it should’ve been at least one out. The next batter, Gleyber Torres, struck out (it was probably Gleyber’s worst at-bat of the ALCS). Get the out at second and strike out Torres, and the inning ends with Soto standing on deck.

Instead, Rocchio’s error extended the inning and got Soto to the plate, and my goodness, what an at-bat. Gaddis jumped ahead in the count 1-2 and yet never once did it feel like he was in control. Soto was on the attack and Gaddis was in survival mode. Gaddis threw 62% sliders and changeups this year and he threw four sliders and two changeups because finally giving in, and throwing Soto a heater. 

Not a terrible pitch! That’s 95.2 mph at the top of the zone. Lesser hitters swing under it or pop it up. But that’s Soto’s nitro zone, right? How many times this year did we see get to a pitch at the letters and drive it to center or right-center? That’s what makes him special. That and the plate discipline and the bat-to-ball ability that allowed him to foul away three good two-strike pitches to extend the at-bat (at-bat video).

“I was all over him," Soto said during an on-field interview with TBS after the game. "That was the only thing I was thinking. I was just saying to myself, ‘You’re all over that guy. You’re all over that guy. He ain’t got anything.’ Just had to make good contact, and I did."

Because the Yankees had a 3-1 series lead, Soto’s ALCS-winning homer was not an enormous championship probability mover – it’s “only” the fifth biggest hit of 2024, and Giancarlo Stanton’s first inning homer in Game 5 of the 2022 ALDS moved the needle more – but forget the numbers. This was the swing the 2017-23 Yankees never got, and never could have gotten. Because they didn’t have Juan Soto.

The Yankees traded a mountain of pitching depth knowing they would only have Soto for one year because there is no one in the sport like him. No one with this combination of elite contact, elite power, elite plate discipline, and unending confidence that borders on cockiness. He backs that confidence up in the biggest moments, so no one can give him any grief. It’s cliche to say Soto is built different, but how else do you describe him?

The Yankees traded for Soto not to simply get back to the postseason. They traded for him to get them to the World Series, then he hit the home run that won them the pennant. It’s storybook, a cheesy premise for a sports movie, but it is real life. Soto has been everything the Yankees needed him to be and then some. He is the perfect player at the perfect time for these imperfect Yankees.

“Such an ability to seize the moment,” Aaron Boone said. “Every big moment that he finds himself in the middle, he delivered over and over and over again for us. Obviously he put up an amazing season statistically speaking, but in the biggest moments, that's what he does, and it shouldn't be taken for granted.”

(Self-promotion: I wrote a thing at CBS breaking down the Soto vs. Gaddis at-bat.)

2. October G is ALCS MVP. The Guardians once again let Giancarlo Stanton beat them. Well, not beat them, but tie the game. In Game 4, Cleveland pitched to Stanton with two on and first base open, and he hit a three-run homer that changed the game. In Game 5, they pitched to Stanton with a runner on third and two outs in the sixth inning, and the ineffective Jazz Chisholm Jr. on deck. 

"No. Tanner was dialed. Tanner had struck him out twice. He had him on the ropes," Stephen Vogt said when asked whether he considered walking Stanton in that sixth inning. "One mistake, that right there. I trust Tanner on him. The way he was throwing the ball, you give me 100 more times, I'm not putting him on right there."

Tanner Bibee was excellent in Game 5, he was the ace the Guardians needed him to be, but his 73rd and final pitch was his worst, and it didn’t need to be. Cleveland should have just put Stanton on and taken their chances with Chisholm. Instead, they pitched to Giancarlo, the man who'd already made them pay so many times in the series, and the comeback was on. Here is the story of the ALCS in one screen grab:

“(I was looking for) something out over,” Stanton said. “He was mixing both sides and putting different shapes on his offspeeds, so making sure I saw something up and over the heart of the plate.”

Yet another monster at-bat for Stanton, who hit three of his four ALCS home runs in two-strike counts. He swung over a slider and changeup to fall behind in the count 0-2, then took three straight non-fastballs out of the zone – slider, curve, changeup in that order – to run it full. That extended the at-bat, upping the odds he’d see a mistake, then Bibee left a cement mixer in the zone.

“Giancarlo, you can't pure a ball any better than that,” Aaron Boone said. “That's as good a swing that you can put on a ball.”

Stanton only – “only” – went 4 for 18 (.222) in the ALCS, but all four hits were home runs, and they were all game-changers. October G doesn’t hit those “José Ramírez gets the Guardians to within three with a ninth inning solo homer in Game 2” forgettable homers. Go-ahead blast in Game 3, three needed insurance runs in Game 4, game-tying homer in Game 5. That earned him ALCS MVP honors despite the .222 AVG.

"I'm so pumped for him man,” Aaron Judge told Chris Kirschner. “The hard work he puts in the whole season, that guy's gotten booed so many times at the stadium and on the road. He's battled some tough injuries but that guy always shows up when we need him. I can't speak enough about what he does for this team."

Stanton has 16 homers in 36 career postseason games, which is a 72 homers per 162 games pace. That is when the lights are brightest and you’re only seeing the best pitching good teams have to offer. Stanton’s 16 postseason home runs are the fourth most in Yankees history and the list is really funny when you include plate appearances:

1. Bernie Williams: 22 HR in 545 PA
2. Derek Jeter: 20 HR in 734 PA
3. Mickey Mantle: 18 HR in 273 PA
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 16 HR in 149 PA

Through nine postseason games Stanton is hitting .293/.385/.794 (220 wRC+) with a mere 17.9 K%. He went 27 plate appearances without a strikeout between ALDS Game 2 and ALCS Game 3, the longest strikeout-less streak of his career, regular season or postseason. Stanton is a .269/.342/.677 (170 wRC+) career hitter in October. The man is unafraid and he continues to put the Yankees on his back.

The Yankees traded for Soto after their worst season in three decades. They traded for Stanton when they were a young, fun, upstart team coming off a surprise run to Game 7 of the ALCS. He was supposed to be the piece that pushed the Yankees over the top, and Stanton did his part over the years. It was the rest of the team let the Yankees down in the postseason. Seven years after the trade, things are coming together.

I’m genuinely happy for Giancarlo. I thought he was done last year, so much so that I released him as part of my Offseason Plan, and I’m delighted to be wrong. He’s had a lot – A LOT – of injuries and heard a lot of boos and been criticized for many things over the years, not all unfairly. The man can take a punch. He can punch back too. Stanton did it time and time again in the Guardians. A well-deserving ALCS MVP.

“It’s a special moment for me. A special time,” Stanton told Bryan Hoch. “But this ain’t the trophy I want. I want the next one.”

3. The bullpen stands tall. It’s kinda funny the Wild Card Series bye went from “oh no the hitters will lose their timing” to “without the bye week relievers would have no arms.” Winning the ALCS in five games means Gerrit Cole can start Game 1 of the World Series, and also that the bullpen will get some much needed rest. The Yankees do not play again until Friday. Relax, guys. You’ve earned it and you need it.

"If I would have told you a month ago or two months ago that we're going to close out the American League with Mark Leiter Jr., Tim Hill, Jake Cousins, Luke Weaver, I don't know if many people would have thought that,” Aaron Boone said after Game 5. “But it's a credit to each and every one of those guys. Just their ability to do their job, their ability to focus, their ability to lock in, and just proud of that group."

The Yankees were probably hoping Carlos Rodón could get them through six innings in Game 5. He went 4.2 innings and wasn’t bad, but the situation dictated going to the bullpen in the fifth inning, and the bullpen held Cleveland to two singles in 5.1 innings. Leiter, who was added to the roster Friday to replace the injured Ian Hamilton, got Lane Thomas to ground out with the bases loaded to end the fifth inning. It was the second straight day he escaped a jam.

Hill became the first Yankee in 2024 to pitch three consecutive days, and he was pitching for the fifth time in six days. He faced four batters and got two double plays. Tim Hill will live forever. Then Cousins, who strained his pec near the end of the regular season and had thrown 27 high stress pitches in Game 4, was right back out there in Game 5. He faced the 2-3-4-5-6 hitters. Four strikeouts, one walk, 29 pitches.

Leiter, Hill, and Cousins are all Chicago castoffs. The Yankees got Cousins in a cash trade with the White Sox on March 31st after he used an opt out in his minor league contract, and Chicago didn’t want to put him on their MLB roster. Those same White Sox released Hill on June 18th. Two days later he was a Yankee. Leiter came over at the trade deadline after the Cubs fell out of the race and sold.

Misfit toys, all of them. Leiter is a righty with a 91 mph fastball. Hill had the lowest strikeout rate and the highest ground ball rate in baseball this year. Cousins throws close to 70% sliders. All three were cast aside by non-contenders, including Cousins and Hill by maybe the worst team ever, and all three helped pitch to the Yankees to the World Series. Hill in particular has become indispensable.

“We all went out there with some heart, and got the job done,” Hill told Ryan Dunleavy.

And then there’s Luke Weaver, who had a 6.40 ERA (5.61 FIP) with three teams last year, and was signed to be the No. 6-7 starter, in theory. Instead, he became a bullpen revelation. Weaver blew the save in Game 3 and it was one of those blown saves that sticks with you. It wasn’t a walk, a bloop, and a double into the gap, you know? It was a loud game-tying homer that shook the stadium.

How would Weaver respond? With a 1-2-3 ninth inning to send Game 5 to extra innings, then by staying in to get all three outs in the tenth too. Weaver’s recorded at least four outs in five of his eight postseason appearances, and he threw six innings in four appearances across six days in the ALCS. Sandwiched in the middle there was the Game 3 blown save, which Weaver shook it right off.

“I appreciate them so much, I really do,” Weaver told Keegan Matheson about his bullpen mates. “It’s been a long season. I’ve done a lot of different things on the mound, roles, everything in between. I’m blessed. I’m thankful to be where I’m at, getting the final out.”

Everyone is on fumes right now. There needs to be a conversation about whether this can continue, using relievers like this in the postseason, and I mean league-wide. Not just the Yankees. Poor Cade Smith man. Kid is 25 years old, has his entire career ahead of him, he’s never thrown this many innings in a season before, and his velocity was gone after pitching nine times in Cleveland’s 10 postseason games:

Leiter got five outs and threw 24 pitches in Game 4, then was back out there in Game 5. Hill pitched five times in six days. Cousins threw 27 pitches in Game 4 and another 29 in Game 5. Weaver’s had a huge workload. Heck, Tommy Kahnle warmed up in the tenth inning too. It would have been his third straight day pitching had he gotten into the game. The Yankees won the war of bullpen attrition.

Four relievers pitched in Game 5 – Leiter, Hill, Cousins, Weaver in that order – and not a single one was in the late inning plans when the season began, yet there they were, getting outs with a pennant on the line. Gutsy pitched by a bunch of tired relievers who were cast aside by other teams. Hill and Cousins emerged as unsung heroes throughout the summer and especially these last few days.

“This means everything,” Weaver told Matheson. “I’ve been doing this for a little bit, but I’ve never been able to go to the playoffs. I watched it like a fan on TV. It looks pretty cool on TV, but I’m here to say it’s way cooler in person, especially with guys you’ve been doing it with every single day. This is really, really, really cool.”

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Weird outing for Carlos Rodón. It wasn’t great, but it wasn’t bad either. Just weird. Cleveland’s lefties went 4-for-9 against him. The righties went 1-for-10 with an infield single. Not being able to put away Bo Naylor, a .194/.237/.319 (57 wRC+) hitter against lefties during the regular season, after getting ahead in the count 1-2 was annoying, but Naylor put together a great 10-pitch at-bat …

… and had great at-bats all night. I didn’t love the Rodón vs. Guardians matchup because Cleveland hit lefties very well during the regular season, but, in two starts, Rodón allowed three runs in 10.2 innings. Shows what I know … I don’t want to make a big deal of this because the Yankees won, but yeah, Luis Rojas should have held Gleyber Torres at third in the first inning (video). Come on man. Gleyber is not fast, there were no outs, and Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were coming up. The offense went silent for four innings after that. Rojas has to be better and more aware of the situation there … The Yankees held Bobby Witt Jr. and José Ramírez to a combined 6-for-36 (.167) with two doubles and a homer in the ALDS and ALCS. That is terrific work against the other team’s superstar … Anthony Volpe went 6-for-17 (.353) with four walks and five strikeouts in the ALCS, and is hitting .310/.459/.345 (147 wRC+) in the postseason. He threw away a double play ball early in the ALDS but has otherwise been a lockdown defensively. Tony Fox is having a great October … Anthony Rizzo went 6-for-14 (.429) with two broken fingers in the ALCS. His power is gone, and his defense has been suspect, but he’s stepped back into the lineup and performed. Kinda amazing how confident I am in Rizzo at the plate. He won’t get a hit or get on base every time, though the at-bats are so good … Here’s an insane stat: Gleyber and Juan Soto have 18 first inning plate appearances this postseason, and they’ve made three outs. The Yankees have scored only four first inning runs this postseason, and one of the four was on Brayan Rocchio’s dropped pop up in Game 2, but Torres and Soto are more than doing their job atop the lineup. It’s instant pressure every game … And finally, Nestor Cortes (flexor) threw live BP on Saturday afternoon and all went well. He’s going to do it again in a few days. It sounds like Nestor will be on the World Series roster, assuming all goes well these next few days. Also, DJ LeMahieu (hip) was one of the hitters Cortes faced.

5. Upcoming at RAB. The Yankees do not play again until Friday, and we still don’t know who they’re going to play in the World Series. I’m gonna take a day or two (or three) to recharge a bit, then I’ll get back on the horse here at RAB. The Dodgers and Mets will play Game 6 on Sunday night (8pm ET on FS1) and we’re rooting for Game 7. Let’s go Mets baby love da Mets. I’m not sure either team presents a better matchup for the Yankees, they’re both very good, but give me a Game 7 that forces them to work their pitching staff nice and hard these next two days.