June 7th, 2024: Gil, Torres, Volpe, Judge, Rizzo, Soto, Rice, Mailbag

All-Star Game voting opened earlier this week, if you’re into that. It’s two phases again. Phase 1 runs through June 27th, and the top three vote-getters at each position advance to Phase 2. A fresh round of voting then decides the All-Star Game starter. MLB releases a voting update every Monday I think? Maybe every Wednesday? I forget. Anyway, that’s there. Let’s get to today’s post before this weekend’s big series with the Dodgers.

1. Weekday thoughts. Shoutout to the Blue Jays and old pal Isiah Kiner-Falefa. They split four games with the Orioles this week thanks in part to IKF’s walk-off single Wednesday night (video). The O’s are 10-4 in their last 14 games and they’ve lost 1.5 games in the standings. Ouch. As for the Yankees, they went a perfect 6-0 against the Twins this season. It’s the first time they've swept a season series of at least six games against any team since, well, sweeping the Twins in 2009. They went 7-0 against them in the regular season plus 3-0 in the ALDS that year. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days as the Yankees improve to 123-44 against Minnesota since 2002, postseason included. (Hopefully the Yankees run into the Twins again in October!)

Gil turn

For the first time this season, Luis Gil got to face his former organization Tuesday night, and he did to the Twins what he’s done to everyone else this year: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K (video). Gil is up to +2.7 WAR in 2024. In parts of five seasons with the Twins, Jake Cave put up +2.2 WAR. A good trade, that one was. The King of the Gil owns a 1.82 ERA (2.95 FIP) in 12 starts and 69.1 innings this year. Golly.

“It’s hard not to initially look at the size of him on the mound. He’s got a very good arm. He’s got good stuff. You see a lot of good stuff in the game. He’s better than most,” Rocco Baldelli told Bill Ladson. “A good hard fastball. The hard changeup. I’m not even sure of the action on that pitch and what it’s doing, but it looks like a good effective pitch based on the hitters’ reactions. That looked like a real strength of his, and he commanded the ball pretty well. When you have stuff like that and you command the ball pretty well, it’s a nice combination. He threw a good game today.”

In his 12 starts this season Gil has allowed two hits or fewer eight times. Not two runs or fewer, two hits or fewer. He’s allowed no more than three hits 10 times. Gil has held hitters to a .129 AVG and .219 SLG, both the lowest among qualified pitchers by 30-something points. There is some flukiness to that, I don’t think any pitcher is a true talent .129 AVG and .219 SLG guy, but Gil has been legit incredible:

• .129 AVG vs. .175 xAVG

• .219 SLG vs. .288 xSLG

• .220 wOBA vs. .263 xwOBA

• 1.82 ERA vs. 2.66 xERA

The one hit Gil allowed Tuesday was a hit only because the Yankees had Juan Soto playing way in on Christian Vázquez, who entered the game in a 5-for-60 (.083) rut, and Vázquez hit a ball over Soto’s head (video). So it goes. Gil has allowed three runs total in his last seven starts. He’s the first pitcher in franchise history (!) with seven straight starts of at least six innings and no more than one run allowed.

(Jose Trevino has caught each of Gil’s last seven starts. He’s his personal catcher now and I’m totally cool with that. Let the rookie throw to the veteran. Austin Wells is playing plenty. I have no issues here.)

Also, Gil has a 9.3% walk rate in those seven starts. It was a 17.6% walk rate in his first five starts, and he is gradually whittling that down. His season walk rate is 12.6%. It’s getting there. Here are Gil’s fastball location heat maps. Seems to me the Yankees got him to set his sights a little lower, and/or Gil realized hitters can’t touch his fastball even when it’s in the strike zone.

Gil has been been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year – he’s a slam dunk All-Star and in the super early Cy Young conversation, not just the Rookie of the Year conversation – and not even the Yankees saw this coming. They optioned Gil to minor league camp on March 3rd. They were planning to stash him in Triple-A. Imagine if these bullets were being wasted in Scranton? Oy vey.

Cole made his first rehab start Tuesday and I don’t think there’s anything to him and Gil pitching on the same day. Gil’s not coming out of the rotation when Cole returns now that Clarke Schmidt is sidelined. Those two being on the same schedule is just a coincidence. Cole was ready to start a rehab assignment, so get him started. If they’re still aligned in a few weeks, the Yankees can use Cole’s return to give Gil an extra day of rest. That would be swell.

I said this last week: Getting Gil through 162 games so he’s effective in the postseason is the biggest challenge facing the Yankees the rest of the season. The Yankees say they haven’t set a hard innings limit, but they will watch for signs of fatigue, and adjust as necessary. We won’t like it when Gil’s pulled after 75 pitches or has a start skipped, but if that’s what has to happen, then that’s what has to happen.

Eventually this run of starts of at least six innings with no more than one run allowed will end, and at some point the league might even get their AVG over .200 against Gil. No one is this good all season (right?), but even if Gil comes back to Earth the hard way, his season has been a smashing success. At minimum, he helped the Yankees stay afloat during Cole’s absence. Really though, Gil’s done so much more.

“I had to come back from a big injury. A lot of dedication, a lot of hours to put myself in the situation where I could be here and compete,” Gil told Ladson. “I thank God for the opportunity to be here. I’m part of this team. It’s so good to see us play well.”

Torres finally rounding into form

It took entirely too long, but Gleyber Torres is starting to resemble Gleyber Torres at the plate. Going into the series finale with the Twins, he was hitting .278/.341/.506 (141 wRC+) in his last 22 games and .262/.326/.438 (120 wRC+) in his last 36 games, then he doubled in two runs Thursday. Torres isn’t back back, he’s still fouling away too many fastballs, but he’s getting there. This is much better than where he was a few weeks ago.

"It feels good. How I've been doing right now has been a little bit better,” Torres said after going deep in Tuesday’s game (video). “I don't feel like I'm that good like I expect, but little by little, I feel I'm more consistent right now.”

One thing I maybe underestimated during Gleyber’s weeks-long slump is that he took a pitch to the thumb in the second game of the season, and pulled himself from the game because he couldn’t grip the ball to make a throw. He was in the lineup the next day, but if his thumb bothered him and he couldn’t properly grip a bat, it could explain his inability to drive the ball earlier this year.

Torres is running very good chase (23.5%) and swinging strike (10.4%) rates. He’s not constantly flailing at pitches out of the zone and he’s not swinging and missing excessively either. The plate discipline is there. Torres just has to be more on time against fastballs, and also maybe pull the ball a little more? His 30.6% pull rate is a career low by six percentage points. If anything, Gleyber’s too focused on right field.

The Yankees have some things to figure out in the middle of the lineup – not-so-fun fact: Torres (.232/.307/.343 and 91 wRC+) is now a better hitter than Anthony Rizzo (.233/.295/.342 and 89 wRC+) – and Gleyber really should be their fourth best hitter. He hit .266/.330/.452 (120 wRC+) from 2022-23, he’s only 27, and he’s healthy as far as we know. Torres was so, so bad earlier this year. At least he’s moving in the right direction now.

Triples! So many triples!

For my money, triples and great outfield throws are the most exciting plays in baseball (do yourself a favor and familiarize yourself with Chusei Mannami). We’ve seen some great outfield throws courtesy of Aaron Judge over the years. Not many triples though. The Yankees have been a slow team and Yankee Stadium suppresses triples. The Yankees hit 35 triples from 2021-23, seven fewer than any other team. 

Well, since the start of the West Coast trip, the Yankees have eight triples – eight! – in their last 12 games. Here are all eight and here are a few triples-related nuggets:

• The Yankees had two triples Saturday in San Francisco and two triples Wednesday against the Twins. Prior to that, their last two-triple game was Sept. 12th, 2020. Clint Frazier and Brett Gardner did the honors against the Orioles.

• This is the first time the Yankees have multiple two-triple games in a season since 2018. That year Miguel Andújar and Aaron Hicks did it on May 20th against the Royals, and Gardner and Neil Walker did it on Sept. 25th against the Rays.

• This is the first time the Yankees had multiple two-triple games in a week’s time since 1999. Bernie Williams had two triples against the Red Sox on Sept. 1st, then Bernie and Chuck Knoblauch had triples against the Mariners four days later. 

• The Yankees have eight triples in their last 12 games. They had eight triples all of 2022. No other team has more than five triples in their last 12 games.

• The last time the Yankees had eight triples in a 12-game span was Sept. 1995 (they had nine triples in a 12-game span at one point that month).

Yes, poor outfield play contributed to a few of the eight triples, but that's true of many triples, and some were straight triples. Anthony Volpe has four of the eight triples and all four were a well-placed ball and hustle. Juan Soto (two) and Alex Verdugo (one) have also tripled recently and they were part of the team’s effort to get younger and more athletic over the winter. This is the result.

I am under no illusion that the Yankees are suddenly a triples team. They have eight triples in their last 12 games and they might not hit eight triples the rest of the season. I’m just appreciating this very fun run of triples. We don’t see them often and they’re exciting. It’s been three decades since the Yankees hit this many triples in this short a period of time. I hope we don’t have to wait that long to see it again. 

Miscellany

Volpe’s and Judge’s matching on-base streaks are up to 32 games. They are the longest on-base streaks in baseball this season, active or otherwise, and this is becoming historic. Here are the teammates with the longest simultaneous on-base streaks in the Expansion Era (since 1961):

1. Cal Ripken Jr. and Eric Davis, 1998 Orioles: 36 games
2. Edgar Martinez and Ichiro Suzuki, 2001 Mariners: 35 games
3. Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones, 2003 Braves: 34 games
4. Wade Boggs and Mike Greenwell, 1988 Red Sox: 32 games
5. Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe, 2024 Yankees: 32 games and counting

Volpe is definitely cutting it closer than Judge. He has a .353 OBP in the 32 games. Judge has a .514 OBP during the streak (lol) … Judge played left field for the fourth time in his MLB career and the first time in Yankee Stadium on Thursday, and his inexperience showed when he gave up on Max Kepler’s double only to watch it fall fair (video). Judge’s body language strongly suggests he expected the ball to slice foul, but it didn’t. Statcast says it had an 85% catch probability. Let's call that one a learning experience … Rizzo has reached the “wear high socks to change the mojo” phase of his slump. He is 7-for-52 (.135) with nine strikeouts and two walks in his last 14 games and he has a .212/.268/.292 (65 wRC+) line since May 1st. The Orioles aren’t going away anytime soon, but the Yankees are in position to ride this out and let Rizzo try to get on track. Still doesn’t make it any less frustrating or worrisome though … Five runs in 4.2 innings is a bad start, but Marcus Stroman did get through four innings Thursday. The starter has gone at least four innings in all 64 games this season, setting a new franchise record (at any point in the season, not just to start the season). The previous record was 63 straight games in 2012. More than two months into the season and the Yankees still haven’t had a starter have a really bad day. Pretty incredible … And finally, the Yankees have played 64 games and Jahmai Jones has started two of them. He has 10 plate appearances. In the last 23 games he’s pinch-run twice and nothing more. Jones is popular in the clubhouse and a great vibes guy, but the Yankees are essentially playing with a 25-man roster. It’s fine for now. Things are working. The Yankees will have to think about upgrading that roster spot at some point though, especially given the current corner infield situation.

Injury updates

Juan Soto did not return after the 56-minute rain delay Thursday. The Yankees say he exited with left forearm discomfort and will go for tests Friday. Aaron Boone said Soto’s been dealing with it for about a week and they didn’t want to send him back out after the delay. "I don't know what (the tests are) going to show, but definitely, I know we're getting the imaging and seeing what's going to happen," Soto told Gary Phillips, adding it doesn't bother him when he swings or throws. Not much more I can say right now. Hopefully this is nothing serious and Soto returns soon. He is irreplaceable and losing him for any length of time would be devastating … Cole’s first rehab start went swimmingly: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K (video). He was scheduled for 40-50 pitches and he hit the midpoint: 45 pitches (34 strikes). Per Brendan Kuty, Cole said the Yankees told him he was 94-97 mph with his fastball. Everything I’ve read from people who were there said Cole looked like Cole, like he’s simply building his pitching count more than trying to gain feel for his pitches and command. Boone told Chris Kirschner that Cole will make “at least a few” rehab starts. Figure 60 pitches next time out, then 75 pitches the start after that. Is that enough to bring him back? We’re going to find out. For now, Cole is one step closer to rejoining the Yankees … Earlier this week the Yankees clarified Jasson Domínguez’s rehab assignment has been extended 10 days. Turns out pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery don’t get a second 30-day rehab window, they get up to three 10-day extensions. Domínguez got one of those (I don’t know how many extensions position players get). El Marciano’s 10-day extension expires next Thursday. What happens then? Who knows! He was removed from Triple-A Scranton’s game right around when Soto was pulled from Thursday’s game, though that was part of his center field build up. Domínguez is up to seven innings in the field … Scott Effross has begun facing hitters as he rehabs from Tommy John and back surgery, according to Dan Martin. Figure 2-3 weeks of that, then a 30-day rehab assignment, and Effross could return soon after the All-Star break. That would be nice, though I can’t say I’m counting on him to make much of an impact. If it happens, it’s a bonus.

Up next

A potential World Series preview with the Dodgers. Fun fun fun. The Dodgers have not visited Yankee Stadium since Sept. 2016. Bryan Mitchell started the first game. These two teams met in Los Angeles in 2019 and 2023, but this is their first meeting in the Bronx since 2016. Feels like a lifetime ago. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Friday vs. Dodgers: RHP Cody Poteet vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7pm ET on YES, Apple TV+)

• Saturday vs. Dodgers: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Gavin Stone (7:30pm ET on FOX)

• Sunday vs. Dodgers: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow (7pm ET on ESPN)

• Monday at Royals: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Seth Lugo (8pm ET on YES)

Yes, tonight’s game will be on YES (and SportsNet LA). It’s not exclusive to Apple TV+, though you can watch there too. Apple’s picture is pretty sharp, I have to admit. Also, the Royals are really good! They are 37-26 with a +72 run differential. I think they’re more AL Central good than actually good, but clearly, this is not the 106-loss team from a year ago. Kansas City is a problem for next week though.

Friday’s game has “why spend $325M on Yamamoto when you have Poteet?” written all over it. I hope it plays out like that, but damn, Yamamoto is good. He got clobbered for five runs in one inning in his MLB debut during the Seoul Series. In 11 starts since Yamamoto has a 2.67 ERA (2.65 FIP) with 28.6 K% and 5.0 BB%. Also a 47.4 GB%. As good as the rotation has been, I wish the Yankees had him. Alas.

Stone, like Gil, has come into his own the last few weeks. He’s a weak contact guy more than a bat-misser. We’re all familiar with Glasnow from his time in Tampa. Did you know the Dodgers have not scored a run with him on the mound in any of his last five starts? True story. Also, Sunday will be Glasnow’s first start this season on normal rest. Los Angeles has been very diligent about giving all their starters extra rest.

(Walker Buehler went three innings Thursday and Evan Phillips, the Dodgers’ best reliever, had a 31-pitch inning in his second appearance off the injured list. Manager Dave Roberts had to use all his high leverage relievers. Shoutout to the Pirates for making life difficult on the Dodgers’ bullpen last night.)

The Dodgers are 10-10 in their last 20 games, mostly because they’ve hit .237/.301/.392 (100 wRC+) in those 20 games. They scored 17 runs in their last two games though, so the bats are waking up. Still, the natives are restless. Dodgers fans are grouchy. I wouldn’t say angry or worried, but annoyed it’s not coming as easily as everyone expected. The lineup is very top heavy:

• Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith: .306/.391/.522 (160 wRC+)

• Everyone else: .217/.287/.362 (88 wRC+)

Ohtani got hit with a pickoff throw on May 16th and has been playing with a hamstring contusion, and he’s 15-for-72 (.208) with an elevated 54.3% ground ball rate in 17 games since. No offense, Shohei, but I hope that hamstring keeps hurting another few days. Ohtani has four home runs in 13 career games at Yankee Stadium. Should be a fun weekend with an electric bordering on unhinged atmosphere in the Bronx.

2. 2024 draft prospect: California HS RHP Braylon Doughty. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

Doughty, 18, really jumped onto the prospect radar at the Area Code Games last summer, when he struck out 17 of the 31 batters he faced in arguably the most high profile showcase event. This spring he’s shown the same lively stuff and feel for pitching, putting him in the first round mix even though many teams steer clear of high school pitchers early. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have Doughty:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 49

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 20

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 57

• MLB Pipeline: No. 37

For what it’s worth, Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d) says the Yankees have been connected to Doughty this spring. They haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since Ty Hensley in 2012. Brock Selvidge (third round in 2021) is the only high school pitcher the Yankees have selected in the top 10 rounds since 2018. Here’s video and here’s a piece of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Doughty mostly works off a low 90s fastball that has touched 96 and a wicked, two-plane breaking ball that is among the best in the prep class. Doughty throws both pitches for strikes at a high clip, and his feel to land his 80-86 mph hammer breaking ball with spin rates in the 2,800-3,100 range is particularly advanced and leads to easy plus projections on the pitch. His ability to manipulate the shape, land the pitch in the zone, bury it for chases and backdoor it to lefthanded hitters makes it one of the better breaking balls in the class.

MLB Pipeline’s scouting report says evaluators see “plus makeup, a kid who was a sponge for pitching knowledge.” Every team wants plus makeup guys and the Yankees are no different, and at times they seem to place great emphasis on it. Makeup and things like that were a separator for them with Anthony Volpe and George Lombard Jr. (and also Dante Bichette Jr. and Cito Culver back in the day).

Anyway, Doughty is listed at 6-foot-1 and 196 lbs., putting him on the shorter side for a right-hander. Old school scout types won’t like that. The thing is, teams know so much more about pitching these days, and how to get the most out of lower release points. Those guys can be really tough on hitters with the angles they create on their fastball, etc. Smart teams no longer dismiss pitchers purely on height.

Many teams avoid high school pitchers in the early rounds (it seems the Yankees are included) because there’s so much inherent injury risk. It’s a long way between here and there, and so much can go wrong with even the most talented pitchers. Clubs are outsourcing pitcher development to colleges. Let the colleges deal with those risky age 19-21 seasons, then pick from the kids that make it through the grinder.

This is not a great draft class and, digging through scouting reports, the high school pitchers with a chance to go late in the first round are so much more interesting to me than the college bats expected to go in the same range. If there were ever a year for the Yankees to take a high school pitcher early, this is it. Maybe it’s Doughty, maybe it’s someone else, but I wouldn’t close the door on them in this draft class.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. At long last, Ben Rice has been promoted to Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees moved him up Wednesday and he is 4-for-6 with two home runs (video and video), two walks, and one strikeout through two games with the RailRiders. Rice caught Gerrit Cole’s rehab start Tuesday. It’s interesting the Yankees had him stay in Double-A that one extra day (rather than promote him during Monday’s off-day) to catch the big leaguer. Hmmm. Do the Yankees want Cole and Rice to get familiar with each other, or is this just a case of the Yankees believing Rice is better equipped to catch a big leaguer than Agustin Ramirez, Somerset’s other catcher? Cole has more rehab starts coming. We’ll see who catches him then. For now, hooray for Rice in Triple-A. It’s not hard to see how he could help the Yankees later this year as a lefty hitting first base option.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Steve asks: Forgive me if you already answered this. But we discussed Volpe being PPI eligible. What about Gil? From what I can understand, he is still a rookie and was on the opening day roster. He was a top 100 prospect this year on BA (#100.) Right now he has to be the front runner for Cy Young. If he wins it, do the Yankees qualify for the PPI pick?

Luis Gil is not eligible for a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick. Part of the criteria is appearing on at least two preseason top 100 prospects lists from Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline, and Gil wasn’t on any of them. And that wasn’t unreasonable. He’s always had a great arm, but Gil was coming off Tommy John surgery and he has a career 13.7% walk rate in the minors. Live arm + injuries + control problems is not an uncommon profile. The uncommon part is Gil putting it together the way he has. Doesn’t matter where Gil finishes in the voting for the various awards during his pre-arbitration years. He’s not PPI eligible because he did not meet the prospect ranking criteria. So it goes. 

Adam asks: It feels like every Yankee pitcher is significantly outperforming their FIPs to this point in the season. As a whole, the staff’s combined ERA is about a full run lower than their combined FIPs (and the difference is even larger when comparing to xFIP). What do you think is the biggest contributor? Good defense? Contact management? Luck? I’m guessing it’s a bit of all three. Also, have there been any seasons in recent memory where there has been as large a disparity as this?

Boring answer: It’s a lot of things. Luck – I prefer “randomness” to “luck,” but let’s roll with “luck” – to some extent, the emphasis on contact management for sure, etc. I don’t think FIP is outdated, it’s handy to have one number to tell us about strikeouts and walks and homers (important stuff!), but it is incomplete. We know so much about the kind of contact pitchers generate now and we can’t ignore it.

Going into Thursday’s game the Yankees had a 2.82 ERA and 3.76 FIP. The 94-point gap is not just the largest in baseball this season. It is on pace to be the largest in the Modern Era. Here are the largest ERA/FIP gaps since 1901:

1. 2024 Yankees: 94 points (2.82 ERA and 3.76 FIP)
2. 1939 Yankees: 94 points (3.31 ERA and 4.25 FIP)
3. 1933 Giants: 87 points (2.71 ERA and 3.58 FIP)
4. 1937 Red Sox: 83 points (3.22 ERA and 4.05 FIP)
5. 1948 Cleveland: 81 points (3.22 ERA and 4.04 FIP)

The Yankees have played 64 games and I am certain other teams throughout history have had 64-game stretches with a 94-point gap between their ERA and FIP. Give it time and I’m sure we’ll see that gap close, hopefully because the FIP goes down and not because the ERA goes up. The Dodgers, by the way, are a distant second with a 52-point gap this year (3.28 ERA and 3.79 FIP).

As for the contact management, the Yankees are threading the needle between a higher than average exit velocity allowed (89.3 mph) and lower than average barrel (7.0%) and hard-hit (38/0%) rates. They have the fourth highest exit velocity on grounders and the sixth lowest on fly balls and line drives. They’ll give up ground ball singles and the occasional double down the line. They excel at limiting damage in the air, the kinda contact that results in extra-base hits.

Also, the Yankees have been exceptional with runners on base. They’ve held hitters to .191/.268/.296 (.255 wOBA) with runners on base and .184/.266/.295 (.253 wOBA) with runners in scoring position. They've surrendered 58 home runs and 41 (!) were solo homers, or 71%. The league average is 56%. The team 0.93 HR/9 is eighth lowest in baseball and the home runs the Yankees do give up are mostly one-run jobs. The back-breaking three-run homers have been few and far between.

Avoiding big hits with men on base and limiting homers to solo shots is a good way to keep ERA down that isn’t entirely reflected in FIP. Can the Yankees continue to hold opponents to a .255 wOBA with men on base and 71% solo homers? Boy, that’s a big ask, but even with a moderate amount of regression, we’re still talking about one of the best run prevention units in the game.

With any luck, Gerrit Cole’s return will help balance out any regression that comes for the other starters. The Yankees are benefiting from some good fortune on the run prevention side, I’d say, but they are also great at avoiding damaging contact in the air, and the team strikeout rate is fifth highest at 23.8%. They could use a little more swing and miss in the middle of the bullpen, but the Yankees get strikeouts and weak contact in the air, and they avoid homers with men on base. It’s a great recipe.

Dmitry asks: What’s up with Soto’s defense this year? For many years he was way below average in statcast OAA, bottoms out at 1 percentile.. now he is net positive defense value! Is this year to year defensive volatility or is there something there to suggest he is now a better defender going forward?

Entering play Thursday, Juan Soto is a +2 DRS and +1 OAA defender this year. That’s not amazing, though it is worlds better than the -6 DRS and -9 OAA he put up last year. Soto has bounced between right and left fields the last few years and he has said in the past that, while he’ll play wherever the team needs him, moving between positions is not his favorite thing in the world. The numbers:

• 2019: +2 DRS and -7 OAA (all in LF)

• 2020: -9 DRS and -3 OAA (87% of innings in LF, 13% in RF)

• 2021: +4 DRS and +4 OAA (all in RF)

• 2022: -2 DRS and -13 OAA (all in RF)

• 2023: -6 DRS and -9 OAA (all in LF)

• 2024: +2 DRS and +1 OAA (all in RF)

That -13 OAA in right field in 2022 sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his career in right field, no? For the majority of his career Soto has rated as average-ish in right except for OAA in 2022, which says he was terrible. He has not played left field all that well overall. Right field has been his better position.

I think there are a few things going on here. One, Soto seems more comfortable in right, based on the numbers. Two, right field in Yankee Stadium is tiny, so he has less ground to cover. I’m sure that helps to some degree. And three, Soto did prioritize his defense over the winter and in Spring Training. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) and more recently Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) wrote about it. From Rosenthal:

Soto, 25, sought advice from (Jackie Bradley Jr.), a former Gold Glove center fielder, while the two worked out together in Miami. He is working diligently with Luis Rojas, the Yankees’ third base coach and outfield instructor. In the words of his manager, Aaron Boone, “He’s not satisfied with his reputation of being an average outfielder. He wants to win a Gold Glove.”

…

Most fans think of outfield play in relatively simple terms — catch the ball and throw it. But mastering each position requires nuanced skills. Soto said his conversations with Bradley “helped me big-time.” Bradley also advised him on his routes, and about gaining every advantage when trying to cover ground, even if it means taking his eyes off the ball.

Also, cynically, this is Soto’s free agent year, and it’s possible he’s going all out on defense to boost his earning potential. Bryce Harper did the opposite. It was a whole big thing when Harper stopped diving for balls in his free agent year, ostensibly to avoid injury. We haven’t seen Soto dive much, but he is getting to more balls than I expected. Whatever the reason(s), Soto’s glove has been a pleasant surprise.

Jon asks: It seems like the Yankees biggest offensive hole is 1b. If Jasson Dominguez keeps up with his rehab and is healthy and ready, it seems like the best defensive setup in the outfield is Verdugo in left, Dominguez in center, and Judge in right. Assuming both Dominguez and Stanton are hitting and healthy, can Stanton (or Soto) learn to play first? Basically remove Rizzo for Dominguez by shifting one of Stanton or Soto to first, and then have Rizzo come in later in games for defense.

The Yankees are not shy about just throwing guys at first base. They did it with Gary Sheffield (2006), Vernon Wells (2013), Brian McCann (2014), Alex Rodriguez (2015), and Rob Refsnyder (2017). Those guys all started games at first base with the Yankees despite no prior experience at the position. A-Rod is the smartest and most instinctual player I’ve ever seen, and he looked like a fish out of water at first.

The Sheffield situation is most applicable to Jon’s question. Wells, McCann, and Refsnyder all played first because the Yankees were short-handed and needed a body. The Yankees put A-Rod at first to see if he could do anything other than DH at that point in his career. Sheffield was a “how do we get all these players into the lineup?” situation. He missed a bunch of time with a wrist injury that year, the Yankees traded for Bobby Abreu to replace him, then Sheffield got healthy and they ran out of lineup spots.

I agree that Alex Verdugo, Jasson Domínguez, and Aaron Judge would be the best defensive outfield. At the same time, I don’t think Giancarlo Stanton at first base would go well given his lack of mobility (you do still need him to field grounders, cover the bag, be the cutoff man, etc.), and I think asking Juan Soto to do it for the first time in his life is a lot (and probably a little unfair in his free agent year). Things are going so well there. Just let him play the outfield and DH.

Judge has messed around at first base during backfield workouts in Spring Training. He was mostly there to give the other infielders a target while they took ground balls. He wasn’t preparing to play the position in a game or anything. Still, that little bit of experience probably makes Judge most qualified to play first base among the outfielders, not that I think Judge is MLB ready at the position. There’s no good solution here.

Domínguez is getting closer to finishing his rehab assignment, so the “how do the Yankees get him in the lineup?” question will have to be answered reasonably soon. It’s a cop out, I know, but there’s a decent chance this takes care of itself. Case in point: Soto's forearm. We'll see what happens there. As logical as it would be, putting an outfielder at first base and making them learn the position on the fly doesn’t feel like something the Yankees will do, and I don’t think it would be the best idea either.

Sam asks: With the Angels open for business, any interest in Luis Rengifo for 3B?

I am a Rengifo fan. I traded for him as part of my 2020-21 Offseason Plan and he’s become a nice super utility guy. This year’s .327/.374/.469 (140 wRC+) line is inflated based on the quality of the contact he’s making, but Rengifo did slash .264/.315/.436 (108 wRC+) from 2022-23. Certainly not great, but solid, and someone who can help a contender as a complementary player toward the bottom of the lineup.

Rengifo is only 27, so he’s in his prime, and he’s a switch-hitter who’s been average-ish against righties and great against lefties throughout his career. He also makes a good amount of contact – 13.5 K% and 9.4% swinging strikes this year (18.6% and 11.0% career) – and, while he doesn’t steal many bases, Rengifo has taken the extra base close to 60% of the time the last few years. The MLB average is 42%.

Defensively, Rengifo has played every position in the big leagues except pitcher, catcher, and first base. The numbers say he is best at third base, where he is average more than stellar. Third base is a position of need for the Yankees, both right now and moving forward. Rengifo will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2025 as well, so he’s not a rental.

As long as you’re not counting on Rengifo to come in and be a difference-maker, he can help the Yankees. He would be a better use of a roster spot than Jahmai Jones and give the Yankees another option at third base, which frees up DJ LeMahieu to play more first base. Unless the Rockies make Ryan McMahon available, Rengifo might be the best third base capable player available at the deadline.

I know the Angels are engaged in trade talks about their rental relievers. I have no idea if they’re willing to trade players with control beyond 2024. Frankly, it is against their M.O. As bad as they’ve been, the Angels always seem to think they’re a good week away from being in the race. What does a trade for 1.5 years of a role player – a good role player, but still a role player – look like? Some examples:

• Adam Duvall (Marlins to Braves): Traded for a team top 20 prospect (C Alex Jackson).

• Adam Frazier (Pirates to Padres): Traded for a team top 10 prospect (IF Tucupita Marcano), a team top 30 prospect (OF Jack Suwinski), and a non-top 30 team prospect (RHP Michell Miliano).

• Whit Merrifield (Royals to Blue Jays): Traded for a team top 10 prospect (UTIL Samad Taylor) and a team top 30 prospect (RHP Max Castillo).

The Frazier trade seems most relevant. He was a good player having his best year at the time of the trade, then he immediately crashed after joining San Diego. The Padres got Xavier Nadyed. That is my concern with Rengifo. I like him, he’s a solid player, but if the BABIP gods don’t smile down on him (.363 currently), it’ll get bad fast. A Frazier trade package may be what it takes though.

The Angels are not Rockies level unpredictable and nonsensical, but they are close. Rengifo might not be available even though it would make all the sense in the world to cash him in as a trade chip now, when the Angels aren't going anywhere and he can help a team for two postseason runs. I like Rengifo and think he can help the Yankees, but I don’t love him, and I hope someone better shakes loose between now and deadline day.

Tamir asks: Who do you think has done more for the Yankees rotation in 2024-José Trevino or Gerrit Cole? It might be an obvious answer to some in either direction but I’m curious on your thoughts. Pretty much a Trevino framing vs IL Cole pitching coach question.

While I appreciate a good “veteran player mentors others” story, it’s Trevino because he directly impacts what happens on the field with his game-calling and framing. Cole’s contributions are less tangible. He can give Luis Gil or whoever advice, yeah, but he can’t make them put it into practice in games. My preference is to credit the guys who are executing on the field first and foremost, and that’s Trevino.

Also, Cole being a quasi-pitching coach is not new! He’s been doing it since his first day as a Yankee. You could even argue Cole is doing less coaching this year than in the past because he hasn’t been in the dugout every single game. He hasn’t gone on every road trip and he’s spent time in Tampa rehabbing. Cole wasn’t chatting up Gil between innings Tuesday night, right? He was in Somerset making his rehab start.

This isn’t to diminish Cole’s impact. He’s awesome and I’m glad he’s so active helping his teammates. I just think you have to credit the guys on the field first. Cole can give the best advice possible and it’s still on the player to make it happen. (Let’s not shortchange Austin Wells! He rates very well as a pitch-framer too. It’s not just Trevino who’s helping the staff back there.)

A different Adam asks: That ridiculous infield fly/interference call (Juan Soto against the Angels) got me thinking… should they get rid of the infield fly rule? Would it be so bad if those pop ups became double plays? It could be exciting! More action, isn’t that what they want? 

There are folks (fans and media, not people within baseball as far as I know) in favor of abolishing the infield fly rule, but eh, I think that would just lead to more double plays and thus less offense. The infield fly rule was fully adopted in 1901 for this exact reason. Infielders kept dropping pop ups and turning double plays. Get rid of it and yeah, once in a while a fielder will throw the ball away and there will be chaos, but I think no infield fly rule will just equal a lot more double plays. Pitchers and defenses have enough of an advantage as it is. I’m pro-infield fly rule. It’s necessary. The umpires should just apply a little common sense when it comes to interference. (Assuming I ran the search correctly, I count only 238 infield fly rules league-wide entering Thursday, or almost exactly one every four games.)

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)