January 26th, 2024: Hall of Fame, Mailbag

January really flew by, huh? Can’t believe it’s already the 26th. Still so many free agents left to sign too. Teams should really get on that. Here now is today’s post. It’s a little shorter than usual only because there was an extra post this week.

1. Three voted into the Hall of Fame. There are three new members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Earlier this week it was announced the BBWAA has voted Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer in Cooperstown. Those three join Jim Leyland, who was voted in by the current version of the Veterans Committee in December, in the 2024 Hall of Fame class.

“It’s something I never even dreamed of,” Beltré told Anthony Castrovince after getting the news. “I can’t even believe I’m going to be on the same podium with those guys.”

Beltré was on the ballot for the first time and he is a slam dunk, no doubt about it Hall of Famer. The old school folks love the 3,166 hits and the new schoolers love the +93.5 WAR, which is a top 40 mark all-time and 27th best among position players. Beltré’s 95.1% voting percentage is tied with Babe Ruth for the 17th highest in Hall of Fame history.

Mauer snuck in by only three votes and I’m glad he got in on the first ballot. Catchers are underrepresented in the Hall of Fame and he was a career .306/.388/.439 (123 wRC+) hitter with three batting titles and an MVP. Three batting titles as a catcher! And he was a great defender too. Mauer would have sailed in had concussions not forced him to move to first base in 2014.

I never felt strongly about Helton’s Hall of Fame case but I’m not opposed to his selection. He actually had a higher voting percentage than Mauer (79.7% vs. 76.1%), though it was his sixth year on the ballot. Look at Helton’s progress: 16.5%, 29.2%, 44.9%, 52.0%, 72.2%, 79.7%. That is encouraging for someone like Chase Utley, who debuted on the ballot at 28.8% this year.

Billy Wagner fell five votes short of induction in his ninth year on the ballot and I assume he’ll get in next year, in his final year of BBWAA eligibility. Gary Sheffield got 63.9% of the vote in his final year, so he’s off the ballot. That’s a shame. Sheffield was one of the best hitters of his era and I think he’s a Hall of Famer. He’s now at the mercy of the various Veterans Committees.

“It doesn’t matter how you get in as long as you get in,” Sheffield told Marc Topkin after the Hall of Fame announcement. “I did what I could do on the baseball field. It’s not like I can go back and do any more or hit any more home runs. So the thing is, is that what I left out there for 22 years is more than enough.”

There were eight players on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot with ties to the Yankees (some were more prominent Yankees than others). Here are their voting percentages (full voting results):

• Gary Sheffield: 63.9% (tenth and final year on the ballot)
• Andruw Jones: 61.6% (seventh year)
• Carlos Beltrán: 57.1% (second year)
• Alex Rodriguez: 34.8% (third year)
• Bobby Abreu: 14.8% (fifth year)
• Andy Pettitte: 13.5% (sixth year)
• Bartolo Colon: 1.3% (first year, falls off the ballot)
• Matt Holliday: 1.0% (first year, falls off the ballot)

A-Rod and Pettitte have stalled out at their current voting percentages (both actually lost a little support this year) and it’s safe to say neither is getting in at this point. I know A-Rod still has another seven years on the ballot, but come on. He’s not getting in. Abreu’s support has plateaued as well, so he won't make it either. (Abreu would go in as a Phillie anyway. A-Rod and Pettitte would go in as Yankees.)

Beltrán went from 46.5% last year to 57.1% this year, which is a smaller jump than I expected and suggests some voters are holding the Astros’ signing stealing scandal against him. He has another eight years on the ballot though and inched closer to the 75% threshold. This may take more time than expected, but Beltrán is on the right path. Jones made a small jump from 58.1% to 61.6% this year. He’s gonna cut it close, if he gets in.

Next year’s class of first timers is a good one. Ichiro Suzuki joins the ballot and he’s obviously getting in. I get my Hall of Fame vote after this season and (spoiler) I’m going to vote for Ichiro. Suzuki spent time with the Yankees, though of course he’ll go into the Hall of Fame as a Mariner. Also joining the ballot next year: CC Sabathia. Already? Sheesh. I feel like I watched Sabathia grind through six innings of two-run ball last June.

I’m not sure he’ll get in next year, but I think Sabathia will get into the Hall of Fame eventually, and I wonder if he’ll help change the way modern starters are viewed. Other than strikeouts – CC is third all-time in strikeouts by a lefty behind Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton – his resume is short of the typical Hall of Famer, though he was clearly one of the best pitchers of his era.

It’s too late to help Pettitte and Mark Buehrle, though perhaps Sabathia getting in helps someone like Jon Lester or David Price, or even Gerrit Cole (though Cole’s on a pretty good Hall of Fame track himself). The established Hall of Fame standard for starting pitchers says these guys are nowhere close to Cooperstown, but the game is changing, and the Hall of Fame standards need to change with it. Sabathia could help usher in a new era of voting.

A-Rod and Pettitte aren’t getting in, so if Sabathia does get in, he’ll be the first Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame since Derek Jeter in 2020. Who’s next after Sabathia? Robbie Canó has no chance given his PED suspension, so it’s probably Cole, right? Aaron Judge started his career relatively  late and has more work to do to get into Cooperstown, making it less likely he gets in. After Sabathia (if he gets in), the next Yankee Hall of Famer is probably Cole. After him? Who knows.

Anyway, I hope Wagner gets in next year and the Veterans Committee puts Sheffield in when the time comes. Congrats to Beltré, Helton, and Mauer. And Leyland too. I liked baseball better when managers were characters and not an extension of the front office trained to speak a lot of words without giving away too much information. Leyland is part of a dying breed.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. Roster housekeeping: Jeter Downs and Oscar Gonzalez cleared waivers earlier this week while Bubba Thompson was claimed by the Twins, the Yankees announced. They were all designated for assignment recently. Downs and Gonzalez are still in the organization as non-40-man roster players. Too bad Thompson didn’t sneak through waivers. He might’ve been useful as the designated pinch-runner in the postseason, assuming the Yankees make it … Jack Curry had a quick update on the Yankees’ search for bullpen help earlier this week. He says “not to expect” the Yankees to sign Hector Neris, and that they are more likely to reunite with Keynan Middleton and/or Wandy Peralta. To put it another way, the Yankees will sign whoever they consider the best bang for the buck. A bullpen signing seems likely at this point … And finally, small changes are coming to the road uniforms. Paul Lukas reports the Yankees are eliminating the white outlines around the lettering and also around the sleeves, so they are going back to their pre-1973 look. The home uniform will be unchanged. Here’s the new look:

I reserve the right to change my mind once I see the new uniforms on the field, but I like it. The solid blue on gray looks sharp. This is the first change to the uniform since 2016, when the Yankees tightened up the spacing between NEW and YORK and debuted the matte helmets. Looks good. Now the Yankees just need an alternate jersey (navy blue with the top hat logo?) and a City Connect uniform (something subway themed?) and they’ll be set. I get that they’re the Yankees and the pinstripes are iconic, but the pinstripes stopped being sacred when the Yankees sold them for ad space. Bring on alternate uniforms, I say.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Daniel asks: You’ve made the point (rightfully) that the Yankees have been starting the season one piece short. My mind keeps coming back to the imperfect but significant potential of Matt Chapman. As the clock keeps running and the price keeps dropping, can you see the fit that I see? Push DJ to the bench and back into his ‘rover’ role, tighten up infield defense, help Volpe cover less ground, etc. His opposite field pop would yield more at YS3 than Rogers. Savant statcast rankings aren’t everything but his are easy on the eyes. What say you?

Chapman, 31 in April, slashed .240/.330/.424 (110 wRC+) last year and that is right in line with his .221/.314/.432 (111 wRC+) line in close to 1,400 plate appearances from 2020-22. How he got there though, that wasn’t great: .384/.465/.687 (216 wRC+) in April and .205/.298/.361 (84 wRC+) the rest of the season. Chapman was a bad hitter for five-sixths of the 2023 season.

Daniel is right that Chapman is a Statcast superstar. He’s an exit velocity monster who doesn’t chase out of the zone much, and although his defense has taken a step back from his Platinum Glove winning days, it was still well above average at the hot corner in 2023. The underlying skills are great:

Chapman hits the ball hard and doesn’t chase, though his contact rates are comfortably below the league average – he had a 77.9% in-zone contact rate both in 2023 and from 2021-23 (MLB average is 84.9%) – and he is especially susceptible to velocity up in the zone. Want to see a scary heat map? Here is Chapman in 2023:

Chapman’s 2021 and 2022 contact heat maps are nearly identical, so that isn’t a one-year blip. He can be beaten up in the zone, particularly with velocity, and you’re in good shape as long as you keep the ball out of that bottom left quadrant of the zone (down and in to Chapman). His 29.8% whiff rate on heaters last year was significantly worse than the 20.4% league average.

Okay, so Chapman is a flawed hitter and possibly declining defensively, but does that mean he should be avoided at all costs? Every player has flaws. It’s just a question of what you can live with and what makes sense for your roster. The Yankees could use help at third base. DJ LeMahieu and Oswald Peraza could work, but there is room for improvement there. For sure.

Chapman’s righty swing-and-miss bat (28.4% strikeouts in 2023) is not a great fit for a team that already has Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and Anthony Volpe), though the Yankees added a few lefty hitters this offseason, and thus have more lineup balance. Adding another righty who strikes out excessively is not the death knell it would have been in previous years.

Ultimately, it’ll come down to cost. Every dollar the Yankees give Chapman will be luxury-taxed at 110%, and the Yankees would also have to surrender two draft picks and $1M in international bonus money. I’m a hard no on 5-6 years for Chapman. His contact rates carry major collapse risk (they’re not Joey Gallo bad, but they’re bad) and his glovework, while still great, is starting to slip now that he's on the wrong side of 30 (which is a totally normal thing).

A one-year deal though? Well, no, Scott Boras would never take a straight one-year contract. It would be two years with an opt out, or even three years with two opt outs. That’s just the market these days. There's no such thing as a one-year deal anymore. Anyway, on a short-term deal, yeah, I’d have interest. Chapman would help the Yankees in 2024 and there’s reduced long-term risk. Here’s ZiPS:

• Matt Chapman: .240/.333/.453 (117 OPS+) with 25 HR and +3.6 WAR
• DJ LeMahieu: .256/.334/.473 (97 OPS+) with 11 HR and +2.4 WAR
• Oswald Peraza: .244/.306/.391 (93 OPS+) with 15 HR and +2.0 WAR

And it’s not like LeMahieu and Peraza would be off the roster. The Yankees would still have those two and Chapman. I’m generally in favor of the Yankees doing whatever they have to do to maximize 2024, even if it means signing someone (Blake Snell, etc.) to a longer contract than they’d like, but man, Chapman worries me. Those contact issues are real.

On a one-year contract, or one of those two years with an opt out contracts, yeah, go for it. Look at the upside rather than the downside. Chapman could step in at third base and give the Yankees better defense and more power, and there’s little long-term risk. Would Boras and Chapman go for it? I bet he gets a five-ish year contract somewhere when it’s all said and done.

James asks: Beyond the standard preempts (why not sign both, can't assume Fried wants to sign here or be available, gotta get through this year before thinking about next year), given the budget realities the Yankees have displayed over the recent years if they were to sign one left handed starter to a long term deal wouldn't it be preferable from an on-field baseball perspective to hold their money instead of signing Snell so they can go all-in on Max Fried next off-season?

The biggest hang up with waiting for Fried is it doesn’t help the Yankees in 2024, their one guaranteed season with Juan Soto and another year of whatever’s left of Gerrit Cole’s and Aaron Judge’s prime. Sign Blake Snell now and he ups the World Series odds in 2024 nicely.

The Braves typically lock up their best players very early in their careers. Usually within a year or two of their MLB debut, and Fried is well beyond that point. And once you become a free agent, the Braves tend to let their guys walk (Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, etc.). If you don’t take the hometown discount, there’s no room for you in Atlanta.

Fried just turned 30 and he’ll be the same age next offseason that Snell is now, so sign either and you're buying the same chunk of their careers. Fried has been better than Snell the last few years, even with Snell’s Cy Young season thrown in. Here are the 2021-23 numbers:

Fried really is outstanding and maybe even a little underrated even though he finished second in the NL Cy Young voting in 2022. He and Snell are different pitchers – Snell is an elite bat-misser and Fried an elite contact manager (86.4 mph average exit velocity the last three years) – but they’re both very good. Over the last three years though, Fried’s been better. Clearly so.

From 2019-22, Fried was top 20 in starts, then last season a forearm strain sidelined him from early May until early August. He pitched well once he returned, but still, forearm strains are a common symptom of elbow ligament trouble. We’ll have to see how he holds up in 2024. Snell had a groin issue in 2022 and has otherwise been healthy the last few years.

I would rather have Fried than Snell. Fried is not available now though, and while I think it’s likely he hits the open market next offseason, it’s not 100% guaranteed, and waiting the year doesn’t help the 2024 Yankees any. Also, I’ve fallen for the “pass on a top free agent now so you can get the better player next year” thing before and I’m not doing it again.

Fried is excellent and I’m certain he will be a popular target and frequent topic around these parts next offseason, assuming his arm holds up. It would be nice if he got more strikeouts, but weak contact on the ground is the next best thing, and Fried pitches deep into games as well. Too bad he’s not available now. He’d be an excellent fit for the 2024 Yankees.

Mike asks: I was looking into potential relief pitchers and noticed that if I add strikeout rate and ground ball rate, those were often adding to 75-85%. I can easily see how strikeouts are productive for the pitcher. I know ground balls are a good outcome - they get more outs than line drives or fly balls and I know the Yankees love GB pitchers. I'm having a hard time figuring out what rate of ground balls turn into outs as well as how impactful getting more double plays are. Is there a good way for us to understand the impact of ground balls and the relationship of GBs vs SOs?

Just so it’s clear, when I say Clay Holmes had a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 65.5% ground ball rate last season, it means he struck out 27.1% of the batters he faced and got a ground ball on 65.5% of his balls in play. Not that 65.5% of the batters he faced hit a grounder. Here are the top 2023 strikeout + ground ball rates as a percentage of batters faced (min. 200 batters faced):

1. Andre Pallante, Cardinals: 71.7%
2. Jhoan Duran, Twins: 68.6%
3. Clay Holmes, Yankees: 68.3%
4. Logan Webb, Giants: 67.8%
5. Brusdar Graterol, Dodgers: 66.5%
(MLB average: 51.3%)

Last year the league average was a .243 BABIP on ground balls, which essentially means 75.7% of ground balls were converted into outs. The Yankees led baseball with a .209 BABIP on grounders, so they turned 79.1% into outs. Part of that is they have a good infield defense (that is great at some positions), and part of it is a pitching staff that generates a lot of weaker than average ground balls.

Approximately 10% of all ground balls result in a double play league-wide and the gap between the best teams and worst teams each year is relatively small. Last season several teams tied for the best rate at 12% and several teams tied for the worst rate at 8%. The Yankees were right at 10%. The ability to turn double plays matters less than the ability to get ground balls that can become a double play, if that makes sense.

Obviously a strikeout is the best possible outcome for a pitcher. Nothing bad can happen when a ball isn’t put in play. I mean, sure, the catcher could whiff and the batter could reach on a strikeout wild pitch, but that doesn’t happen very often. That risk pales in comparison to a ground ball’s potential to sneak through the infield, or a fly ball’s potential to land in the first row of the short porch. Grounders vs. non-grounders is no comparison:

• Ground balls: .243 AVG and .267 SLG in 2023
• Fly balls and line drives: .399 AVG and .773 SLG in 2023

Not all fly balls and line drives are created equal. Gerrit Cole had a 39.6% ground ball rate last year but he excels at getting weak pop ups and shallow fly balls, or cans of corn. Still, you would rather get a ground ball than give up something in the air, and you’d rather strike the batter out than allow any ball in play. The Yankees under Matt Blake have definitely prioritized the ground ball component, sometimes even to the extent of sacrificing strikeouts.

Here is strikeout rate vs. ground ball rate over the last three seasons (min. 200 innings) (I did not realize Holmes falls just short of the 200-inning cutoff until after making this graph, he would be out on his own little island at 26.3% strikeouts and 69.9% grounders):

The R-squared of 0.034 means there’s close to zero correlation between strikeouts and ground balls. At least in our sample, strikeout pitchers aren’t more prone to fly balls and ground ball pitchers aren’t less likely to miss bats. Few pitchers can do both well. You do have to do one or the other well to have success though. Low strikeout, low ground ball pitchers usually don't last long don’t last long.

I’m not sure I answered the original question. Ground balls are converted into outs roughly 75% of the time league-wide, and while that’s not as good as strikeouts going for outs 100% of the time, it is much better than fly balls and line drives going for outs only 60% of the time or so. I think the Yankees could use more strikeout ability in the back of the bullpen. They have a lot of really good ground-ballers back there, but late in close games, give me strikeouts.

Michael asks: I'm interested in Tim Anderson as a potential target, but I know he comes with a couple of question marks - I mean he put up a -2.0 WAR and I'm not sure how he fits in with team chemistry (still thinking about that Jose Ramirez fight from last year). But historically Anderson has been very good with the bat, and with some question marks on the left side of the infield, it might be a worthwhile luxury to have a player like him to give some days off to Volpe, DJ, or even Gleyber if needed. What do you think? Am I off here, and is Tim Anderson getting a starting SS deal this offseason? If not, would you have any interest in bringing him aboard?

Anderson hit .318/.347/.473 (123 wRC+) from 2019-22 and then slipped down to .245/.286/.296 (60 wRC+) in 2023. He ranked 104th in AVG, 130th in OBP, 133rd in SLG, and 133rd in wRC+ among the 133 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Anderson was the worst everyday hitter in baseball last year. Here’s the 2023 ground ball rate leaderboard:

1. Tim Anderson: 61.1%
2. Christian Yelich: 57.3%
3. William Contreras: 55.0%
4. DJ LeMahieu: 55.0%
5. Masataka Yoshida: 54.6%

Excluding 2020, Anderson’s 61.1% ground ball rate is 20th highest by a qualified hitter in a single season since batted ball data became a thing in 2002 (he had a 53.0% ground ball rate from 2019-22). That’s among over 3,000 individual player seasons, and 11 of the 19 ahead of him are Luis Castillo, Ben Revere, and late career Derek Jeter. It’s hard to be a good hitter with that many ground balls.

Now 30, Anderson missed about four weeks with a knee injury early last season and he rushed back to try to help the White Sox get their season back on the rails. Is it possible playing hurt is the reason his performance cratered? I could buy it. Players play through things all the time because that’s how they’re wired, though it usually isn’t a good idea.

“Obviously, injuries. I had an MCL injury. My front leg, so that kind of messed with me hitting. I kind of was not really hitting up against anything on the front side,” Anderson told Scott Merkin in September. “I’m really not trying to make that excuse. This year has been a lot of searching. The body is working a lot differently, especially coming off injury. I just could never grab hold to what I was searching for. Some days, I feel good. I’d have a good series. It kind of really was all over the place with trying to grab that consistency and that feel. The body felt different every day.”

In this era of high velocity and breaking balls that are quite literally designed in a lab, hitting for average is really hard, and Anderson did it as well as anyone from 2019-22. He’s only 30, so it’s not like he’s over the hill. He strikes me as a potential bounce back candidate with good health and a good buy low candidate, especially if he’s willing to take a one-year contract. Anderson is a poor defender, though he’s open to playing second base, so that helps too. He’s one of the best bat-to-ball guys in the game.

Given his age and track record of being a very good hitter prior to the most recent season, I assume Anderson is seeking a full-time job and would not consider being a utility player for the Yankees unless his market completely collapses. The Giants and Marlins stand out as shortstop needy teams. The Blue Jays and Mariners could use a second baseman. I like the idea of Anderson as a buy low guy. I’m just not sure he’s open to a reduced role with the Yankees.

Jon asks: Given the current pitching situation, I think the importance of Luke Weaver is flying under the radar. I assume injuries and depth generally will lead to at least 20 starts for him. What do you think, and how do you think he'll perform? I'd pair him with an opener, but you'd know better than me.

We’ve reached the “mailbag questions about Luke Weaver” portion of the offseason. I don’t mean to pick on Jon, I’m just saying that’s where we are in the news cycle. The last few weeks before Spring Training are usually dead and they certainly are with the Yankees right now.

Anyway, only Gerrit Cole (33) and Clarke Schmidt (32) made 20 starts for the Yankees last season (Domingo Germán was third with 19), though the Yankees were a bit of an outlier. Nine teams had five guys make at least 20 starts and 20 teams had four guys do it. Eyeballing the list, nine of the 20 got 20 starts from a pitcher who wasn’t in the Opening Day rotation.

Needing starts (potentially a lot of them) from your sixth starter is just a normal part of baseball. It’s impossible to get through the 162-game season using only five starters these days. Ignoring 2020:

• Last team to use only five starters: 2003 Mariners
• Last team to use only six starters: 2013 Tigers
• Last team to use only seven starters: 2019 Cardinals

The Blue Jays and Nationals were the only teams to make it through last season using only eight starters. That’s pretty much the best case scenario. You’re fortunate if you don’t use a ninth starter nowadays.

At some point the Yankees will need Weaver to make starts. Hopefully a lot fewer than 20, but if it is 20, then it’s 20. And if it is 20, then Weaver will have had to pitch reasonably well to make that many starts, right? This isn’t Carlos Rodón or Luis Severino staying in the rotation because they have upside and a big salary. It’s Luke Weaver. If he pitches poorly, he’ll be replaced.

I’m curious to see what Matt Blake can do with Weaver and the cutter he brought back in the middle of last season. The Yankees claimed Weaver on a Tuesday and he made a start that Saturday, so it’s not like he and Blake had much time to talk through things and then work on it in the bullpen when he joined the team last year. Now they’ll have part of an offseason and all of Spring Training together.

ZiPS spit out a 5.33 ERA (4.98 FIP) in 101.1 innings for Weaver and yeah, that’s about right for his contract (only $2M guaranteed). Obviously the Yankees like something about him and think there’s more in the tank, and I bet they’d be thrilled with 2023 Germán production (4.56 ERA and 4.65 FIP). Chances are Weaver will be bad. If he is, then the Yankees will adjust.

Thurman asks: Seeing how 2024 has so many players’ contract year are overlapping from Soto to Gleyber, Verdugo and others. When else has a team had so many players (coaches aside) playing for their next contract and how did they fare?

I didn’t do an exhaustive search throughout baseball history (mostly because I don’t know how to search for teams with a lot of free agents), but go back to the 2021-22 offseason and the Giants had four of the top 18 and five of the top 25 free agents according to 2021 WAR:

7. Kevin Gausman: +4.8 WAR
14. Brandon Belt: +3.5 WAR
16. Kris Bryant: +3.1 WAR (+0.5 WAR with Giants)
18. Anthony DeSclafani: +3.0 WAR
25. Alex Wood: +2.5 WAR

Bryant was not there all season but San Francisco had five free agents still in what can reasonably be considered the prime of their careers, and they all had strong years. We could even add Brandon Crawford to that group. He was a +6.3 WAR player in 2021 and ultimately passed on free agency to sign an extension that August. It was a contract year for him though.

That 2021 Giants team is the greatest outlier in recent memory: 107 wins. They had last gone to the postseason in 2016. Look at their win totals from 2017-23: 64, 73, 77, 78 (when extrapolated out to a 162-game schedule in 2020), 107, 81, 79. That’s a bad to mediocre team for six of the seven seasons, and the one exception was the year they had so many players in their contract year. Hmmm.

Correlation does not equal causation and research into the contract year phenomenon has been inconclusive. It’s difficult to untangle what is a player having a great year because he’s trying his best to land a contract and what’s a player simply having a career year because he’s at the age when a lot of players have career years, not to mention a million other factors.

And that brings us to the 2024 Yankees. They don’t just have a lot of players about to enter their contract year. These dudes are all pretty young too. Juan Soto will play the entire season at age 25. Gleyber Torres will play the entire season at 27. Alex Verdugo turns 28 in May. Those guys will all be playing for a free agent contract in 2024 (as will roughly half the bullpen) and they’re at a prime age too.

I don’t think the Yankees did this intentionally, meaning acquire young players approaching free agency. Part of it was the market (who expected Soto to be traded at this time last year?) and who was available (the Red Sox had been trying to trade Verdugo for a while), and I think part of it was the Yankees wanting to avoid long-term commitments. It just kinda worked out this way.

I don’t know the last team to have three 20-somethings entering their contract year at the same time, one of whom is on the short list of the best players in the game. Feels like it would be pretty rare. Either because they’re playing for a contract or because they have a career year at an age when lots of players have a career year, Soto and Torres and Verdugo are all primed for big years in 2024. Things are aligned that way and it would be pretty cool if it works out.

Matt asks: Your joke about Cashman DFA'ing Jeter got me thinking...what if a GM or someone in a front office went crazy and DFA'd an elite player on a good contract? Like if Cashman had a bad day in 1999 and decided to just DFA the real Jeter. Or if AA decided he hated the Braves for some reason and DFA'd Acuna Jr on his way out. Is this even possible? Are moves like this protected against this sort of thing? For the GM, obviously they'd be fired and never work in baseball again. But would the move go through? Would 1999 Jeter or Acuna go onto waivers in this circumstance?

I don’t know how things were handled in 1999 but these days every single transaction, from releasing a rookie ball pitcher to signing a superstar to a $300M contract, runs through MLB’s Electronic Baseball Information system (eBIS). eBIS is MLB’s management system and only a few people per team (usually at the assistant GM level and above) have access to it for this very reason. Only the most trustworthy employees have access to the entire sport.

It is possible for Alex Anthopoulos to have a bad day at the office and designate Ronald Acuña for assignment in a fit of rage, and make it official through eBIS. I have no idea how the league would handle this – obviously the Braves would fire Anthopoulos with cause – though I suspect the Braves would be out of luck, and Acuña would be subject to the usual DFA rules (has to be traded, released, or waived within seven days). Teams have to be responsible for their employees and their actions. That’s why so few people have access to eBIS.

(Revoking the Acuña DFA would open a big can of worms whenever a team gets cold feet and wants to undo something. I doubt MLB would set that precedent, even if the transaction is made maliciously.)

In this hypothetical, Atlanta’s best bet would be working out a trade. Acuña would never make it through waivers and working out a deal with each of the other 29 teams to make sure he does get through waivers is not feasible. They’d have seven days to work out a trade to send Acuña somewhere else, and although their leverage would be reduced, it’s still Ronald Acuña, and there would be a huge bidding war. As far as I know, it’s on the teams themselves to ensure the proper safeguards are in place. MLB doesn’t act as a safety net when bad roster decisions are made.

Anthony asks: Mike as a long time reader I’ve been looking forward to you getting your HoF vote (so I can read your write-up!). If I’m not mistaken, that will be next year. I was wondering if you’ve given thought to how you will research/make a decision? Have you already started thinking about the vote? Are you excited for the process?

Yes, I get my Hall of Fame vote after the season. This is somehow my tenth year in the BBWAA. Honestly, I’m more excited about it than I thought I’d be, and the excitement has been building the last few weeks. I guess that’s because I assumed they’d kick me out of the BBWAA (or CBS would get rid of me) before I reached 10 years and I wouldn’t actually get a vote, but I made it.

I have definitely started thinking about the vote – the last few weeks I’ve looked at all the ballots the ballot tracker folks tweet out a little more intently and thought “hmmm, would my ballot look like that?” – though not what my process will be. Like, how does this work? Do I really need to do a deep dive to know I’ll vote for Ichiro Suzuki but not Mark Trumbo next year? (Sorry, Mark.)

I am excited about getting a Hall of Fame vote and also a little anxious. As for my process, I don’t know. I’ll figure that out when the time comes. I can promise you this much: I will write something explaining my ballot every time I vote for something (Hall of Fame, awards, etc.). I won’t just send in a ballot and that’ll be the end of it. Transparency is important. I’m in the BBWAA for my work at CBS, so my explainers will run on CBS, but I’ll be sure to link to them at RAB when the time comes.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)