January 12th, 2024: Arbitration, Bullpen Targets, Minor League Signings, International Free Agency, Mailbag

The Yankees made it official earlier this week: pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training on Wednesday, Feb. 14th. Position players will follow on Monday, Feb. 19th. We’re getting close enough to baseball’s return that reporting dates are being finalized. Here’s what I wrote about the Marcus Stroman and Luke Weaver signings. Now let’s get to today’s post.

1. Arbitration signings. Unbeknownst to us, MLB and the MLBPA recently agreed to move up the arbitration salary filing deadline from Friday (today) to Thursday (yesterday). Why? “Easier to do so on a Thursday than a Friday,” a source told Gary Phillips. Spoken like someone who wasn’t planning to tackle this over the weekend and instead had to hustle to get it into Friday’s post.

ANYWAY, the Yankees signed all 10 of their arbitration-eligible players prior to Thursday’s 8pm ET deadline. Everyone got a one-year contract for 2024. No extensions, no salaries wildly out of line with projections, nothing like that. A nice, boring arb year. Here are the salaries:

Soto’s $31M is a new record for an arb-eligible player, beating Shohei Ohtani’s $30M last year. Soto has had a historic start to his career and he’s a Super Two. Four trips through arbitration plus a career .283/.421/.524 (154 wRC+) batting line equals a record salary. How about they add a 0 on the end of that $31M and call it 10 years. Yay? Nay? (Scott Boras says nay.)

I should note that, under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, these contracts are all fully guaranteed. Arb contracts used to be non-guaranteed, meaning the team could release the player in Spring Training and pay him only 30 days or 45 days termination pay depending on the timing of the release. Now, if you sign before the filing deadline, your salary is locked in. All the arb-eligible Yankees will be paid in full in 2024. (It’s not often an arb player gets released in Spring Training but it does happen. The Yankees last did it with Chad Gaudin in 2010.)

Now that the arb salaries are in, we can get a better handle on the 2024 payroll. Here’s what’s on the books (these are luxury tax numbers):

• Guaranteed contracts (9 players): $186.25M
• Arb-eligibles (10 players): $77.465M
• Pre-arb players (7 players to fill out roster): $5.25M (estimated)
• Rest of 40-man roster: $3M (estimated)
• Dead money: $10M (Aaron Hicks)
• Misc.: $17M (estimated) (benefits, pre-arb bonus pool, etc.)

Add it all together and that’s a $298.965M luxury tax payroll with minimal guesswork on my part. The Yankees finished last season with a franchise record $296.3M payroll, so unless they cut salary somewhere (Torres being the obvious candidate), they’re going to wind up going over $300M* this year once you factor in in-season call ups and the trade deadline.

* My math puts the tax bill on a $300M payroll at roughly $42M for the Yankees, who will be a third-time offender and have the highest tax rates in 2024.

The Yankees incurred all the non-monetary luxury tax penalties (2025 first round pick pushed back, etc.) a long time ago. At this point, the only penalty is more tax. I’d like to see them keep adding, even if they limit it to one-year contracts so payroll isn’t bogged down in 2025. There is still plenty of room for improvement with this roster. So, improve it.

2. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Relievers. Understandably, rotation help was the No. 1 priority, and the Yankees addressed that with Marcus Stroman (and Luke Weaver). Maybe they’ll bring in another starter on top of Stroman. That would be cool, though it’s been a while since the Yankees did something like that really went above and beyond.

The Yankees could also stand to upgrade their bullpen. Well, every team could stand to upgrade the bullpen, the Yankees are not unique in that regard, but they have some injury risk out there. Here’s the bullpen as of Jan. 12th:

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• High leverage: RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loáisiga
• Middle: RHP Scott Effross, LHP Victor González, RHP Ian Hamilton
• Depth: LHP Matt Krook, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Cody Morris, LHP Nick Ramirez
• Kids: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Yoendrys Gómez
• Non-roster: RHP Nick Burdi, RHP Yerry De Los Santos, RHP Dennis Santana, RHP Duane Underwood Jr.

Put me down for De Los Santos being this year’s out of nowhere effective reliever. Anyway, that is the bullpen, and remember both Kahnle (shoulder) and Loáisiga (elbow) finished last season on the injured list. Also, Matt Blake seemed to imply Effross is still going through his Tommy John surgery rehab, which could affect his availability for Spring Training and Opening Day.

There’s room in there for another reliever, right? Right. Josh Hader is available, and while I’m not against a big money closer, I have a hard time believing the Yankees will give Hader $20M a year for 4-5 years or whatever it ends up being, not to mention surrender draft picks and international bonus pool money to sign him.

The Yankees have been connected to Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson. They’re also said to have interest in a Wandy Peralta reunion. I think a Keynan Middleton reunion would make sense too, though things have been quiet on that front. Aroldis Chapman leads all free agent relievers in projected 2024 WAR, but I think we can safely rule him out. No need to revisit Chappie.

Here now are six free agent relievers who may or may not make sense for the Yankees. Let’s talk them out and see whether they’re worth pursuing. Some of these pitchers are more interesting than others. (I wrote up Brent Suter as part of this exercise, then he signed with the Reds for one year and $3M. The Suter blurb is in the Content Graveyard.)

RHP Victor Arano

2023 stats: Did not pitch (injured)

Arano, 29 next month, hurt his shoulder in Spring Training and missed 2023 after having surgery. The Nationals dropped him from the 40-man roster after the regular season and he elected free agency. Arano had a 4.50 ERA (3.71 FIP) in 42 innings in 2022, the last time he was healthy, and the under-the-hood numbers were sneaky good:

• Strikeout rate: 23.5% (2022 MLB RP average: 23.6%)
• Swinging strike rate: 14.0% (2022 MLB RP average: 11.8%)
• Walk rate: 6.4% (2022 MLB RP average: 9.2%)
• Ground ball rate: 51.6% (2022 MLB RP average: 43.5%)
• Exit velocity: 85.8 mph (2022 MLB RP average: 88.3 mph)
• Barrel rate: 5.5% (2022 MLB RP average: 7.1%)

The question is what does Arano look like after shoulder surgery? He was a mid-90s sinker guy with a traditional mid-80s slider before surgery, and the Yankees love sinkers. Also, Arano has a minor league option remaining and would remain under team control in 2025 as an arbitration-eligible player. If he comes back strong, you get to keep him another year.

Arano has been an up-and-down depth arm most of his career and now he’s coming off a major shoulder injury that cost him a season. I have to think a minor league contract is in his future. With the caveat that I have no idea how Arano is doing with his rehab, he seems like a nice little target for a non-roster deal. It’s a free look at him post-surgery.

RHP Ryan Brasier

2023 stats: 3.02 ERA (3.14 FIP), 23.5 K%, 8.0 BB%, 43.8 GB% in 59.2 IP

Today’s example that some teams are just better than others: Brasier had a 6.16 ERA (3.80 FIP) in 83.1 innings with the Red Sox from 2022-23, they released him last May, the Dodgers picked him up, taught him a cutter, then Brasier had a 0.70 ERA (2.48 FIP) in 38.2 innings. Small sample size and all that, but this had to irk Boston:

“I mean, there’s no way you could have said, ‘If he starts throwing a cutter, he’s going to start pitching really good,’” Brasier told Chad Jennings (subs. req’d) in August. “… Now, obviously having the cutter helps. Having another pitch to get guys off certain other pitches. But working on the cutter, some other stuff started to come back. I don’t think adding a cutter automatically made me a new pitcher. I think that having a little bit of success with it early and just building on the momentum (has helped).”

Brasier turned 36 in August, he’s played parts of 10 seasons in Triple-A, and he did a few years in Japan. He’s finally out of his team control years and this offseason is, by far, his best chance at a nice free agent payday. I gotta think he is taking the largest offer no matter what. He’ll go get blasted in Coors Field for three years if that’s what’s best for him and his family financially.

Jon Heyman recently reported the Angels, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Orioles, and Rangers are all in the mix for Brasier. Some really smart teams there! And also the Angels. The new cutter is a tangible reason to buy into Brasier’s success, though I am a wee bit skeptical Dodgers Brasier is the guy you’ll get in 2024. A step back may be coming (like with the .183 BABIP).

I would not get into a bidding war for Brasier. If another team offers two guaranteed years, then good for him. Something like Will Smith’s one-year, $5M contract with the Royals would be my limit, I think. Brasier on a one-year deal would be relatively low risk and, given what he did with the Dodgers last year, you could say he comes with some nice upside too.

LHP Jake Diekman

2023 stats: 3.34 ERA (3.75 FIP), 26.3 K%, 15.6 BB%, 46.8 GB% in 56.2 IP

Diekman got the Rays glow-up last year. He was awful to start the season with the White Sox (14 runs in 11.1 innings), they released him in May, then the Rays picked him up and got him on track. How did they fix him? “Try to throw everything down the middle. Other people say that. But you trust it here,” Diekman told Stephanie Apstein last October.

To be fair, throwing it down the middle is easier said than done. Diekman had a 13.5% walk rate with the Rays that was right in line with his 2021-22 walk rate (14.3%) and his career walk rate (13.3%). Tampa got his strikeout rate back closer to 30% and his ground ball rate up near 50% again. Not sure a .231 BABIP will happen again, but he missed bats and got grounders. (The Rays got Diekman back to his pre-ChiSox ways more than they helped him final a new level.)

Diekman turns 37 later this month and he’s always had high leverage stuff with low leverage command. Even last season, at age 36, his fastball sat 95.4 mph and topped out at 98.2 mph, and his very high spin sweeper had a 37.3% whiff rate. He is a man of extremes:

Given his age and career-long strike-throwing issues, Diekman carries major blowup potential. That said, it’ll be a one-year deal, presumably in that $5M range. Although Diekman makes me a bit nervous, you can’t argue with the raw stuff and potential for dominance. On his best days, Diekman’s awesome. You just have to live with the occasional bad day along the way.

RHP Phil Maton

2023 stats: 3.00 ERA (3.74 FIP), 27.0 K%, 9.1 BB%, 42.9 GB% in 66 IP

Back in 2018, when spin rates really started to become a thing, I wrote about Maton as a bullpen target because he had (wait for it) great spin rates. Now I’m doing the same thing five years later. It wasn’t until Maton got the Astros in 2021 that he harnessed those spin rates and became a trustworthy reliever. He turns only 31 in March too. Relatively young for a free agent reliever.

The Yankees are all about power sinkers and that is not Maton. He sits around 89 mph with his fastball, which he only throws about a third of the time anyway. The rest of the time he throws his low-70s curveball and 80-ish mph sweeper, both of which have huge spin (the curve averaged 3,156 rpm in 2023). He’s got a good nickname too: Philth Maton (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Considering how often he throws those high spin breaking balls, it’s impressive Maton had a 9.1% walk rate in 2023, and a 9.0% walk rate for his career. It can be hard to throw strikes with pitches that move that much, and Maton throws them a ton He does have trouble with lefties (.369 wOBA in 2023), I should note. Righties (.199 wOBA) are a non-issue.

The Yankees prefer power sinkers but there’s something to be said for having different looks in the bullpen. Holmes and Loáisiga pound the bottom of the zone with sinkers, Kahnle spams hitters with his changeup, and Maton would give the Yankees an option to attack righties with spin. Some guys just can’t hit breaking balls. Maton would match up well against them.

The Braves gave Pierce Johnson, another reliever who makes his living throwing a ton of high spin breakers, two years and $14.25M. That right for Maton? Too much? Not enough? Keep in mind Holmes, Kahnle, and Loáisiga will all be free agents after 2024. Giving a reliever, Maton or otherwise, multiple years isn’t a bad idea. The 2025 bullpen needs some attention too.

LHP Matt Moore

2023 stats: 2.56 ERA (3.73 FIP), 27.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, 35.0 GB% in 73 IP

Since returning from Japan in 2021, Moore has found a home in the bullpen, and not just as a left-on-left matchup guy. He’s been effective against both righties and lefties. Last year’s 6.9% walk rate was a bit of an outlier (it was 11.9% from 2021-22) but the strikeout rate was not. Moore has three pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and can miss bats in the late innings.

Now 34, Moore has signed one-year contracts worth $3M, $2.5M, and $7.55M the last three offseasons, and his team was happy they signed him each time. Another one-year deal in the $7.5M range sounds about right, though in this market, maybe Moore can find two guaranteed years. All you need for a two-year contract is one desperate team.

With all due respect to Victor González, the Yankees need a high leverage left-handed reliever to replace Wandy Peralta, and Moore is qualified. He’s done it the last few years now, albeit not on great teams. If it takes $7.5M or even two years to get Moore, part of me wonders if the Yankees would just circle back to Wandy, the guy they know and are comfortable with.

RHP Hector Neris

2023 stats: 1.71 ERA (3.83 FIP), 28.2 K%, 11.4 BB%, 31.8 GB% in 68.1 IP

I did not realize Neris is already 34. I don’t know how old I thought he was (31? I guess?), but it was not 34. Anyway, Neris had a superficially strong season with the Astros and he’s been a workhorse and supremely durable throughout his career:

• 71 appearances in 2023 (11th most in MLB)
• 141 appearances from 2022-23 (third most in MLB)
• 215 appearances from 2021-23 (third most in MLB)
• 239 appearances from 2020-23 (second most in MLB)
• 307 appearance from 2019-23 (most in MLB)
• 360 appearances from 2018-23 (fourth most in MLB)
• 434 appearances from 2017-23 (third most in MLB)

The ERA is shiny and the durability is nice, though there are real signs of decline here. Neris’ strikeout rate, splitter whiff rate, and ground ball rate have been trending downward for several years, and he just posted his highest walk rate in a 162-game season. Also, his 93.0 mph average fastball velocity in 2023 was a career low, and well south of 94.3 mph in 2024.

As good as he was in 2023, Neris shows all the indicators of a heavily used reliever declining in his mid-30s. Reduced fastball velocity and thus reduced effectiveness is not surprising, even if it hasn’t shown up in his ERA yet. Neris screams “1.71 ERA for the 2023 Astros and 5.79 ERA for the 2024 Angels.” There’s always a price point where it makes sense, but yeah, avoid.

* * *

The Yankees are pretty good at building bullpens, it is the one thing they do reliably well year after year, though there’s nothing wrong with spending money on a reliever(s). You need a lot – A LOT – of bodies out there and there are so many innings to cover each year. Relievers are inherently volatile, that will always be true, but teams know more about these guys than ever.

I’d like the Yankees to bring Middleton back. I’m less keen about Wandy given the red flags that popped up last year (walks, homers, trouble with righties), though I suppose it depends on the price. Among the relievers listed above, Maton and Moore stand out to me, and I guess Arano on a minor league contract too. Some combination of Maton, Middleton, Moore, and Peralta would add depth to the bullpen and raise the floor nicely, if not raise the ceiling as well.

3. Latest non-roster signings. The minor league contracts continue to roll in. Here is the latest batch, which you can add to Nick Burdi, Yerry De Los Santos, Luis González, Anthony Misiewicz, Oddanier Mosqueda, Dennis Santana, and Duane Underwood Jr.

Yankees sign Smith

According to Dan Martin, the Yankees have signed infielder Kevin Smith to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. Smith, an Albany native, announced the signing himself on Twitter. He is most notable for being part of the Matt Chapman trade. That trade was a total dud for the Athletics. The four players they received:

• RHP Gunnar Hoglund: 6.05 ERA in minors in 2023, not a team top 10 prospect
• LHP Zach Logue: -1.3 WAR, lost on waivers last offseason
• IF Kevin Smith: +0.1 WAR, non-tendered this offseason
• LHP Kirby Snead: +0.2 WAR, outrighted and elected free agency this offseason

Yeesh. The A’s gutted their roster and they didn't get much back for the guys they traded. JP Sears could wind up being the second or third best player Oakland gets out of the Chapman, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy, and Matt Olson trades.

Anyway, the 27-year-old Smith has a Quad-A thing going on. He’s a career .286/.355/.534 (122 wRC+) hitter in close to 1,000 Triple-A plate appearances and a .173/.215/.301 (44 wRC+) hitter in 333 career big league plate appearances spread across parts of three seasons with the Blue Jays and A’s. His name is Kevin Smith and they call his bat Silent Bob (heyo!).

Smith has played lots of shortstop and third base in his career (he’s above average at third and average-ish at short), plus some first and second base, and even some left field. I do not think signing Smith makes it easier to trade Oswald Peraza. This feels more like a “we’re probably going to have to DFA Jeter Downs at some point” infield depth signing.

With the caveat that Opening Day is 2.5 months away and that is an eternity in baseball time, Triple-A Scranton’s position player unit seems mostly set.

• Catcher: Josh Breaux, Carlos Narvaez, Ben Rice (and Ben Rortvedt?)
• First base: T.J. Rumfield (Rice will get first base time too)
• Second base: Jorbit Vivas
• Shortstop: Jeter Downs (and Oswald Peraza since he has a fourth option?)
• Third base: Tyler Hardman
• Outfield: Luis González, Oscar Gonzalez, Everson Pereira, Bubba Thompson
• Utility: Kevin Smith (and Oswaldo Cabrera?)

Again, long way to go between now and Opening Day, but it looks like the Yankees have their ducks in a row for Triple-A. On the position player side, anyway. They’ll adjust and pick up whatever warm bodies are needed as players get hurt and opt out or whatever in Spring Training. Nothing personal, but I hope we don’t see Smith much in the Bronx this summer.

Tully rejoins Yankees

Earlier this week I mentioned the Yankees could use a Triple-A veteran innings guy and it turns out they had already signed that player. Lefty Tanner Tully is back with the Yankees on a minor league contract, per Matt Eddy. He has big league time, so I assume he got an invite to Spring Training. Fun fact: Tully allowed the third of Aaron Judge’s 62 homers in 2022 (video).

Now 29, Tully began last season with Triple-A Scranton and had a 5.64 ERA (4.84 FIP) in 19 starts and 91 innings with the RailRiders. The Yankees released him in August so he could pursue an opportunity in KBO. Tully had a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts and 64.2 innings with the NC Dinos, and now he’s back with the Yankees on another minor league contract.

The Marcus Stroman and Luke Weaver signings push the kids back down to Triple-A. Right now, the Triple-A Scranton rotation figures to look something like this:

1. RHP Clayton Beeter
2. RHP Will Warren
3. RHP Cody Poteet
4. RHP Yoendrys Gómez
5. LHP Tanner Tully
6. LHP Edgar Barclay?

Because Monday is a common off-day in the minors, teams will often insert a sixth starter now and then just to give their guys a breather, and give them a full week between starts. Not always, but sometimes. Tully will be the veteran guy who eats up innings as needed, either as a starter or reliever. Not the sexiest pickup but a necessary piece of a Triple-A pitching staff.

4. IFA signing period opens Monday. The 2024 international signing period opens Monday. The Yankees usually pick in the back half of the first round in the draft, so international free agency is their best (only?) chance to acquire some of the best amateur players in the world. It’s important stuff. Here’s a primer on this year’s international signing period.

(For what it’s worth, Jonathan Mayo polled executives about farm systems and whatnot, and the Yankees were voted as the best team at using international free agency.)

Bonus pool

The Yankees forfeited $1M in bonus pool money to sign Carlos Rodón last offseason and have a $4.6522M bonus pool this signing period. They can trade for an additional 60% starting Monday and can max out their bonus pool at $7.45952M. A few weeks ago the Yankees traded Billy McKinney for bonus pool money, though that was for the 2023 signing period, not 2024.

Bonuses of $10,000 or less do not count against the bonus pool and every so often a team hits on one of those players. Randy Vásquez was a $10,000 signing in 2018. Carlos Lagrange was a $10,000 signing as well. The Yankees signed Lagrange in 2022 and he’s on the cusp of being a Very Big Deal. The big money signings get all the attention. Don’t forget about the other guys though.

Who are the Yankees going to sign?

As best I can tell, the Yankees are not going to give the majority of their bonus pool to one player like they did with Roderick Arias ($4M), Jasson Domínguez ($5.1M), and Brando Mayea ($4.35M) in recent years. If you want a top of the class player, you’ll have to give him most of your bonus pool. This looks to be a “spread the money around” signing period though.

A few weeks back the Yankees were connected to Dominican OF Francisco Vilorio. MLB.com ranks him as the No. 15 prospect available. Ben Badler (subs. req’d) has him at No. 18, though his rankings are in order of expected signing bonus, not talent (Badler doesn’t list the bonuses). Here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s scouting report on Vilorio (here’s video):

Overall, he projects to be a middle-of-the-order bat and an offensive threat if he continues to develop at the expected pace. His offensive potential makes him valuable, but he’s also improving on the other side of the ball. On defense, Vilorio is toolsy enough to start in center field and just might stay there. There’s also a chance he outgrows the position and moves to a corner spot … Currently, he shows the arm strength and the bat tool to profile as a right fielder, which bodes well for the team that signs him.

Vilorio is the only one of MLB.com’s top 50 prospects the Yankees are expected to sign. Badler, however, also has them signing Dominican 3B Richard Matic. He’s ranked at No. 45 and again, Badler’s rankings are in order of expected bonus, not scouting report. Here is Badler’s scouting report (subs. req’d) on Mr. Matic (his nickname has to be Auto, right?):

Matic has an advanced offensive game for his age. He’s a high-contact hitter with good bat speed, allowing him to put the ball in play at a high clip and drive the ball for extra-base damage when he does connect. While players who are already at third base as amateurs typically have significant risk of moving to first base, Matic has a good chance to stick at third base, showing the hands for the infield and an above-average arm.

Ready to feel old? Like really, really old? Matic was born in July 2007. I do believe he will be the first player the Yankees sign who was born after we launched RAB in Feb. 2007. I am ready to crumble into dust and return to the earth. Between being the Yankees’ first post-RAB baby and the nickname potential, I am rooting hard for Matic to make it and make it big.

What about Sasaki?

There is still no clarity on Roki Sasaki’s situation. The Chiba Lotte Marines right-hander wants to be posted for MLB teams next offseason, that much is known, though it’s unclear whether the Marines will actually post him. Sasaki would be subject to the international bonus pools because he’s not yet 25, which would severely limit his signing bonus and thus the posting fee for the Marines.

Veteran Japanese baseball reporter Jim Allen has a great breakdown of the Sasaki situation and the known facts. Some MLB reporters are more reliable than others, right? Same deal in NPB. Some outlets are more reliable than others and Allen separates fact from fiction. As things stand, it’s not yet known whether Sasaki will be posted, and we may not get an answer anytime soon.

Should the Yankees set bonus pool money aside for Sasaki? Well, that would almost certainly mean breaking agreements that are already in place. Those early agreements aren’t supposed to happen but they do with every team every year. Teams will break those agreements, it’s happened before and it’ll happen again, but it’s bad business. You’ll hurt your relationship with the agent(s).

I mentioned this a week or two ago: if Sasaki is posted next offseason, I suspect he would be posted a little later than usual. Late enough that his 45-day posting window extends beyond Jan. 15th, 2025, when the 2025 international signing period opens. That way the bonus pools reset and teams have more money to play with rather than trying to make it work on short notice in 2024.

Also, if Sasaki is posted next offseason, then money obviously isn’t the top priority. If it was, he would wait until he turns 25 in Nov. 2026 to come over. That way he would be free from the international bonus pools and could sign a contract for any size, like Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Waiting is 100% the best move financially, though Sasaki doesn’t seem to care. To each his own.

What that means is, similar to Shohei Ohtani years ago, Sasaki will seek what he considers the best fit and best organization, not chase every last dollar. Breaking your agreements and offering him, say, $7M in bonus pool money when everyone else can only offer $3M may not matter. If the extra money is that important, Sasaki would not want to come over next offseason.

I don’t think the Yankees should (or will) set bonus pool money aside for Sasaki because a) his free agency would likely extend into the 2025 signing period, and b) this race won’t be decided by a few extra bucks anyway. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees will have to sell Sasaki on passing up the chance to play with Ohtani and Yamamoto, and I don’t know if that’s possible.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Shōta Imanaga landed with the Cubs. Before that, Chicago was the only team to not sign an MLB free agent or trade for an MLB player this offseason. Imanaga gets four years and $53M. He can opt out after the second or third year, and the Cubs can void the opt out by picking up a club option that adds one year and $27M. The contract can max out at five years and $80M. After all the speculation about $100M+, this contract seems to much more closely align with Imanaga’s talent. Kodai Senga came over last offseason at the same age and as a much more accomplished NPB pitcher, and he got five years and $75M. To beat Senga’s deal, Imanaga will have to pitch well enough to opt out and convince the Cubs to pick up the option. Sounds about right to me. The Yankees really need pitching but I’m fine passing on Imanaga. I didn’t like the Yankee Stadium fit at all … In other Cubs news, they acquired personal favorite Michael Busch as part of a larger 40-man roster cleanup trade with the Dodgers. Busch was part of my Offseason Plan and he would have slotted into the final bench spot nicely as a backup first baseman (Anthony Rizzo is coming off a concussion and has a history of back problems) and emergency second and third baseman in 2024, and then as the starting first baseman in 2025. The Dodgers got some high-end lower minors pitchers in the trade. Henry Lalane types. I definitely would have parted with teenage pitching prospects to get Busch’s immediate impact. Alas … ESPN announced the first block of Sunday Night Baseball games earlier this week. The Yankees have three games on the schedule so far:

• June 9th: Dodgers at Yankees
• June 16: Yankees at Red Sox
• Aug. 18: Yankees at Tigers (Little League Classic)

Eyeballing the rest of the schedule, ESPN could also pick up July 9th (vs. Red Sox), July 28th (at Red Sox), and/or Aug. 11th (vs. Rangers). Yankees at Cubs on Sept. 8th is another possibility, though the next day the Yankees play at home and the Cubs play in Los Angeles. Getaway days are required when at a team has to travel X number of miles after a game and I think that Sept. 8th game falls under those rules. Anyway, the Yankees will be on Sunday Night Baseball at least three times in 2024. Joy … And finally, Rachel Balkovec is leaving the Yankees after four seasons working in the farm system, including the last two as Low-A Tampa’s manager. The Marlins have hired her as their new director of player development, reports Christina De Nicola. That’s a big promotion and it makes Balkovec one of the highest ranking women in baseball. Congrats to her. This is how these things are supposed to go. You hire smart people, they do good work, then another team swoops in and gives them a promotion, and they move up the ladder. Rinse and repeat. Prior to joining the Yankees, Balkovec was a strength and conditioning coach in the Astros’ system and a researcher at Driveline. With the Yankees, she became the first woman to be a full-time hitting coach and later the first woman to manage in affiliated baseball. Now she’ll run an entire player development department.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jon asks: What does Gleyber have to do to still be a Yankee in 2025?

Convince Juan Soto to sign with another team? I can’t see the Yankees re-signing Soto and Gleyber Torres, and Soto will be the priority (as he should be). Gleyber rules and he’s a very good player, but Soto’s generational. The Yankees will exhaust their options with Soto before pivoting to Torres, who may not wait that long to sign. Can’t you see Scott Boras dragging Soto’s free agency into late January or February? That’s his thing.

The Yankees should just suck it up and re-sign both Soto and Torres. Soto is irreplaceable and Torres will be difficult to replace, and they’re both in their 20s and have so many prime years remaining. The best possible Yankees team features Soto and Torres, not one or the other. I’m not sure ownership will stretch payroll to retain both players though. This isn’t two $20M a year players. It’s a $20M a year player and a $45M to $50M a year player.

Steve asks: I realize this may age like old milk, but I have a two parter. First, with the top free agent starters being left handed, do the Yankees get a competitive advantage having 3/5 starters left handed if one is signed, or should they look elsewhere for right handed starters? Also, I thought about a guy like Atlanta’s Ian Anderson. He’s coming back from TJ surgery - but I think he’s in line to be the Braves 8th or 9th starter but today might be the Yankees 5th or 6th. I haven’t done a deep dive on the Braves minor league system, but I know NY is strong at the low A level. I can’t shake his postseason performances and think he’d be a good depth/upside piece after trading so much away this winter. Former top 10 pick, from NY too.

I could’ve sworn someone researched the “are too many lefty starters a bad thing?” but I can’t find it. Maybe I’m imagining it. I don’t think it would matter much as long as they all give different looks? Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes are very different stylistically. Jordan Montgomery is like neither guy, though Blake Snell has some Rodón in him. Maybe that’s a reason to go Montgomery over Snell (if the Yankees aren't done adding starters), to ensure different looks? I dunno.

(Does anyone ask whether too many righty starters is a bad thing? Nope. This is one of those things that only gets asked about lefties. To be fair though, there are many more righty hitters than lefty hitters, so platoon considerations exist.)

As for Anderson, he was so impressive during the 2020 pandemic season, then he threw 128.1 innings with a 3.58 ERA (4.12 FIP) as a 23-year-old in 2021. Things began to come apart in 2022 and Anderson found himself back in Triple-A. He allowed six runs and got two outs in his first Triple-A start last April, then had Tommy John surgery soon thereafter. Anderson should be back around midseason, assuming all is going well with his rehab.

Anderson turns 26 in May and he still has four years of control remaining. His stock is way down at the moment, so the Braves may not want to sell low, but that hasn’t stopped GM Alex Anthopoulos before. He’s traded touted youngsters like Kyle Muller, Cristian Pache, and Jared Shuster when their value was at its low point. He’s not shy about cutting bait.

At his best, Anderson is mid-90s with a nasty changeup and a so-so curveball. He is a native New Yorker too. From up near Albany. I don’t think you can trade for Anderson and plan on immediately slotting him into your rotation once he’s ready to return from Tommy John surgery. He struggled in 2022 and there seem to be a few things he has to get right first.

I am interested in Anderson as a buy low target, for sure, and I think Anthopoulos would trade Anderson in the right deal. What’s the right deal for the Braves? Well, given the state of their roster, I assume it’s MLB help, not prospects. Who are the big leaguers the Yankees could trade for Anderson? Clarke Schmidt? Various relievers? Might be tough to find a trade match.

Dan asks: An MLB Pipeline poll of baseball execs had Ben Rice get vote(s) under best hitter, best baseball IQ, and most underrated. Baseball Prospectus has him at NYY #8, ahead of 2023 1st rounder George Lombard. Baseball America has him as NYY best hitter for average. Pipeline hasn’t released their 2024 list but he’s currently NYY’s #21. He’s also about to turn 25, hasn’t made it past AA, and split time at C/1B/DH. Best case seems to be a James Loney type. Is there something there, or just one exec being a little too excited?

I’ve started cobbling together this year’s Top 30 Prospects List and I’ve reached out to the few non-Yankees people willing to talk to me, and I can tell you this much: analytical models love Rice. He grades out as one of the 10-15 best age-adjusted hitters in the minors for some clubs, mostly for his swing decisions rather than his raw hard-hit ability. The guy is a model darling.

Rice slashed .327/.401/.648 (182 wRC+) with 16 home runs and strong strikeout (18.9%) and swinging strike (10.2%) rates in 222 plate appearances around a back injury with Double-A Somerset last year. The exit velocity is just okay, but Rice lifts the ball plenty and does not chase out of the zone while being all over anything hittable in the zone. It’s top of the line plate discipline.

It is true the lefty hitting Rice is about to turn 25, though he’s an inexperienced 25-year-old. He played only 30 games in three years at Dartmouth because of the pandemic (the Ivy League canceled the 2021 season). Rice was a 12th round pick in 2021, he was the Low-A Tampa backup catcher in 2022, then he hit his way onto the prospect radar in 2023.

How does Rice rank as a prospect? I’m still trying to figure that out for the Top 30. The swing decisions are elite, the power and hard-hit ability are so-so, and the defense is suspect. Rice can frame well enough, but his blocking and throwing are poor, and he is slow even for a catcher. It’s essentially a backup catcher/first base profile with maybe average power.

There is a place for a player like Rice on a contender’s roster. He’s on the heavy side of the platoon and he can give you a quality at-bat, and since his power is to the pull side, he should like hitting in Yankee Stadium. Is Rice truly one of the best hitters in the minors? I dunno, but he is a legit prospect and someone who isn’t too far from helping the Yankees.

Brian asks: Random hypothetical for you, if Mike Trout were a FA this offseason, what type of contract does he command? Obviously his upside is tremendous, but with his injury history and age (this will be his age 32 season) I don’t think he'd top Jacob deGrom's contract (5 for $185).

Injuries are becoming a problem for Trout, who has played only 237 of 486 possible games the last three years (48%). He hit .263/.367/.490 (134 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 82 games last season and that is a) incredible and a career year for most players, and b) the worst season of Trout’s career. Injuries are an issue and there are some signs of decline as well.

My guess is Trout would wind up with a 3-4 year contract with a record average annual value. Technically, that record is Shohei Ohtani at $70M, though the deferrals knock his luxury tax hit down to $46M or so, which is still the highest in baseball. Let’s call it three years at $48M apiece for Trout with some kinda vesting/player option for a fourth year. That’s $144M with a chance to grow to $192M. Short-term, but record dollars annually.

Even with the injuries and hints of decline, I think several contenders would jump at the chance to add Trout on a big money short-term deal. The upside is immense – 81 games of Trout are better than 162 games of most players, including many All-Stars – and Trout is the most revered and respected player in the game. You will never see or hear one of his peers say a bad thing about him.

Think about the Phillies. They’re in it to win it right now. Their World Series window will never get more open and Philadelphia is essentially Trout’s hometown. They would be foolish not to pursue him. The Dodgers too. You spend all that money to add Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Why not splurge for Trout? (Sorry, Teoscar.)

I think the Cubs and Giants would get involved, maybe the Astros and Blue Jays too. Would the Yankees? You could talk me into signing Trout rather than trading so much pitching for Juan Soto, though I’d still lean Soto, I think. Trading for Soto and then signing Trout rather than trading for Alex Verdugo would be the way to go, left-right lineup balance be damned.

Trout has seven years and $242.15M remaining on his contract and I don’t think he would come close to that as a free agent now. I do think several contenders, the Dodgers and Phillies chief among them, would be willing to give Trout a record annual salary on a shorter term deal. He’s still great, injuries and all. Trout in decline is still one of the 10-20 best players in the world.

Sam asks: Something I've seen repeated a lot online (and felt to some degree) is that baseball reporters are having a really difficult time this offseason. There's the big one with Morosi and Ohtani, where it seemed like a lot of people were in the dark and getting conflicting reports, but there have been a bunch of contradictory reports lately (namely around Marcus Stroman). Has the reporting gotten worse/sloppier or have teams/agents gotten better at making reporters' lives difficult by leaking info strategically. If I see one more overly vague report that the Yankees have interest in good pitchers, I may lose my mind.

Yeah, it’s been a rough offseason on the reporting front. The Shohei Ohtani plane tracker thing was embarrassing, to be frank. Professional reporters covering a major league should not be blindly tracking flights. Leave that to the college football fans tracking coaches on recruiting trips. The plane thing was really bad, but reporting has been sketchy overall.

I think it’s a little of both, reporters getting sloppy and sources putting certain things out there to help themselves. I’m not a newsbreaker but I am part of the media, so I have some bias here, but I don’t think any legitimate reporters are making things up. They’re happy to run with every little piece of info because it equals clicks, but no one remotely reputable is making stuff up.

Hopefully this is just an outlier offseason. The Ohtani situation was unique because he wanted radio silence (as I understand it his agent can be very difficult), and so many teams were after Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That inevitably leads to a lot of self-serving leaks. But yeah, been a real bad offseason reporting-wise. Speaking as a media person, we have to clean it up.

Ben asks: I remember in the RAB days you would recommend opposing team's blogs during the Series Previews. Was wondering if you might consider putting together an updated list of other team's blogs/Patreons/Substacks etc. that you think are worth reading. Thanks!

Blogs are going extinct and I don’t stay on top of other teams the way I do the Yankees (duh), so I can’t give you a recommendation for every team. Here’s who I read to keep tabs on other teams:

• Blue Jays: Andrew Stoeten’s Substack (there’s a free option)
• Brewers: Brew Crew Ball
• Cardinals: Dayn Perry’s Substack (subs. req’d)
• Cubs: Bleacher Nation
• Dodgers: Dodgers Digest
• Giants: Grant Brisbee at The Athletic (subs. req’d)
• Mets: Amazin’ Avenue
• Phillies: Phillies Nation
• Rays: DRays Bay
• Red Sox: Matthew Kory’s Substack (there’s a free option)
• All MLB: Effectively Wild podcast

Some are more analytically inclined and more in-depth than others, but they’re all very good and the first place I check for the latest on those teams.

Whenever I have to write about a team for CBS that I don’t follow closely, I usually check The Athletic’s beat writer first, then see whether there’s any worthwhile blog coverage. Beat writers do important work, but the hardcore bloggers tend to get into the nitty-gritty (I’m not biased, why do you ask?). There just aren’t that many hardcore bloggers anymore. Bit of a bummer, really.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)