January 5th, 2024: Poteet, Thompson, Montgomery, Judge, Rizzo, Cortes, Domínguez, Effross, Mailbag

Another reminder: I announced a minor change to RAB and started a new pricing tier earlier this week. Now that that’s out of the way, allow me to note my annual Top 30 Prospects List is only five weeks away. I should get started on that, huh? Prospect season is right around the corner and then Spring Training will be here. Hooray for that. Let’s get to today’s post, shall we?

1. Latest roster moves. The Yankees made a pair of 40-man roster additions Thursday afternoon, annoyingly right after I transferred today’s post from Google docs into Patreon. Let’s go over the two moves.

Yankees sign Poteet

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have signed right-hander Cody Poteet to a split Major League contract worth $750,000 in MLB and $200,000 in the minors. He has all three minor league options remaining and five years of team control, though the former is more important than the latter. Can’t imagine I’ll still be writing about Mr. Poteet in 2028.

Poteet, 29, had Tommy John surgery in Aug. 2022 and spent just about all of 2023 rehabbing. The Royals gave him a two-year minor league deal last winter and Poteet had an opt out if he was not added to the 40-man roster after December’s Rule 5 Draft, which he used. The Yankees could have taken Poteet in the Rule 5 Draft, but they wouldn’t have been able to shuttle him up and down in 2024 because of the Rule 5 Draft rules. Now they can.

The 2015 fourth rounder has big league time with the Marlins, throwing 58.2 innings with a 4.45 ERA (5.15 FIP) spanning 2021-22. He made a two-inning rehab appearance in Triple-A last Sept. 23rd, so he’s completed his Tommy John surgery rehab. Poteet has pitched in relief, though he’s spent most of his career as a starter. I assume the Yankees are planning to stretch him out.

Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote about Poteet in June 2022, not long before his elbow gave out (here’s video):

Poteet had a two-tick velo bump during quarantine, and after sitting 89-93 mph and topping out at 95 in 2019, he was sitting 92-95 and touching 96 pretty consistently in ’21, and he’s throwing even harder now that he’s moved to the bullpen, sitting 94-96 … Of his three secondaries, Poteet most often deploys his changeup, a heavy, sinking offering in the 85-88 mph range … His slider has more linear, diagonal movement than two-planed sweeping shape, but it can still miss bats away from righty batters, and it is basically his only breaking ball now that his slower curve has been all but scrapped. His curveball has plus-plus spin rates but is easy to identify out of his hand since he has a sink/tail-oriented fastball. The limited utility of the breaking balls, and the fastball being more a grounder-getter than a bat-misser, holds Poteet in the low-variance backend starter bucket for me

Poteet seems like a Jhony Brito replacement. A fastball/changeup guy who is something like No. 7 on the rotation depth chart, and could easily wind up in the big league bullpen for a long stretch. The Yankees need MLB rotation help, for sure, but they also have to rebuild that No. 7-8 starter level of depth in Triple-A. That was going to be Brito and Randy Vásquez.

With the Yankees and Matt Blake, there’s always a chance Poteet is the next Ian Hamilton or even the next Nestor Cortes, that out of nowhere success story. I hope he is. Mildly bold prediction: there will be a The Cody Poteet Game this season. You know what I mean, right? A game when the guy no one expects to do anything goes out and does something, and we all remember him for that one game.

Yankees claim Thompson

Add another to the outfield depth chart. The Yankees claimed Bubba Thompson off waivers from the Reds, the team announced. You may remember him for giving you a(nother) reason to hate Josh Donaldson in Game 162 in 2022 (video). Thompson is a former first rounder. The Rangers took him with the No. 26 pick in 2017, 10 picks after the Yankees took Clarke Schmidt.

Thompson, 25, is incredibly fast. His 30.4 ft/s sprint speed last season trailed only Bobby Witt Jr. (30.5 ft/s) and Elly De La Cruz (30.5 ft/s), and was just ahead of Trea Turner (30.3 ft/s). Alas and alack, Thompson can not hit. He’s a career .242/.286/.305 (65 wRC+) hitter in 241 big league plate appearances, and he hit .259/.338/.395 (82 wRC+) in Triple-A in 2023. Meh.

Although he’s extremely fast, Thompson’s center field defense is only so-so. He runs and that’s about it. Defense isn’t exceptional, there’s no hard-hit ability, he strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. Thompson’s speed could make him a potential designated pinch-runner in the postseason though. The guy is 98-for-111 (88%) stealing bases at all levels the last two years.

If the Yankees get to the postseason and Thompson is still around, we can talk about the possibility of him serving as a designated pinch-runner. Long way to go between now and then. Thompson will join Luis González, Oscar Gonzalez, and Everson Pereira in the Triple-A outfield. Oswaldo Cabrera could see time there too, depending how the MLB bench shakes out.

With the Poteet signing and Thompson claim, the 40-man roster is now full, though the Yankees still have a few easily droppable players (Thompson, Jeter Downs, Oscar Gonzalez, Matt Krook, etc.), plus they can put Jasson Domínguez on the 60-day injured list as soon as camp opens. I’m not sure Thompson is long for the 40-man. He could lose his spot when the Yankees need one next.

Also, Thompson is the ninth player the Yankees have claimed on waivers the last two years. The others: Downs, Albert Abreu, Yoan Aybar, Luke Bard, Junior Fernández, Oscar Gonzalez, Anthony Misiewicz, Jeisson Rosario, and Luke Weaver. I know you’re saying “who???” on a few of those, but trust me, they happened. Nine waiver claims the last two years.

I bring this up only because the Yankees made nine waiver claims from the start of the 2016-17 offseason through 2021. Nine claims in a five-year span and then nine in the last two years. The Yankees were so inactive on waivers for such a long time that I was compelled to write about it in July 2021. You’re not gonna strike it rich on waivers, but still, it was an avenue the Yankees mostly ignored for a long time. I’m glad they’re a little more active in that area now.

2. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Jordan Montgomery. Pitchers and catchers report in six weeks and the Yankees must upgrade their rotation between now and then. They’re rumored to have interest in a reunion with Jordan Montgomery, who is either the best or second best starter available in free agency along with Blake Snell. Here are the top unsigned starters by projected 2024:

1. Blake Snell: +3.3 WAR
2. Jordan Montgomery: +3.2 WAR
3. Shōta Imanaga: +2.6 WAR (Scouting the Market post)
4. Marcus Stroman: +2.6 WAR
5. James Paxton: +2.3 WAR

That list goes from “actually good” to “you’re lucky if you get 100 innings from him” real quick. If you want to keep your prospects and simply spend money to significantly improve your rotation, your options are limited right now. Montgomery and Snell are clearly the best available.

The Yankees sent Montgomery to Triple-A few times in 2017 to manage his workload, and it doubled as service time manipulation. He fell only 19 days short of free agency last offseason. In a way though, it may have worked out better for him. Montgomery is coming off his best season and it’s a weak free agent class. Last offseason he would’ve been in the Jameson Taillon/Taijuan Walker bucket. This offseason he’s among the cream of the crop.

We’re all familiar with Montgomery, though a lot can change in 18 months, so it’s worth looking at his game and seeing what he is today. It does seem like there’s a lot of conflicting information out there about what Montgomery’s changed since leaving the Yankees, no? Let’s break him down.

Background

I’m not going to spend too much time here because we all know the story. The Yankees selected Montgomery in the fourth round in 2014 and he was the first “mid-round college pitcher the Yankees coach up” success story. Montgomery added velocity in pro ball and improved both his curveball and changeup. As a non-roster invitee to Spring Training in 2017, he beat out several 40-man roster guys (Luis Cessa, Chad Green, Bryan Mitchell, etc.) to win the No. 5 starter's spot.

Now 31, Montgomery posted a 3.94 ERA (3.90 FIP) with average underlying stats in parts of six seasons with the Yankees. Since leaving the Yankees, he has a 3.17 ERA (3.44 FIP). The single biggest difference between Yankees Montgomery and Not Yankees Montgomery is home runs. He keeps the ball in the park now.

Strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and barrel rate are more or less in the same range. A percentage point or two in either direction. Montgomery’s home run rate is significantly lower away from the Yankees though. On one hand, he’s a more experienced veteran pitcher, who better knows how to avoid the barrel. On the other hand, Yankee Stadium.

HOWEVA, Yankee Stadium does not explain Montgomery’s home run trouble with the Yankees. For his career, he has a 0.98 HR/9 (10.0% HR/FB) in the Bronx and a 1.14 HR/9 (12.7% HR/FB) everywhere else. He’s been better at limiting home runs everywhere the last 18 months. This is not simply a case of getting out of a home run friendly home ballpark.

Montgomery helped the Rangers win their first World Series last fall and he pitched well in the postseason (2.90 ERA and 3.90 FIP), though he had a 12.6% strikeout rate and opponents hit .291/.316/.417 against him. The 2023 postseason averages were .241/.316/.410 and 23.8% strikeouts. As good as he was in October, it was a bit of a weird postseason for Montgomery, statistically.

Pitch Mix

Montgomery is an excellent example of there being such a thing as too many pitches. He threw five pitches – four-seamer, sinker, curveball, slider, changeup – regularly early in the career, then the Yankees replaced his slider with a cutter in 2020. It was too much and Montgomery kept getting beat with his fourth or fifth pitch, so eventually he consolidated his arsenal.

Here is Montgomery’s pitch usage by month. Look how scrunched together everything is from 2020-21, and then how it begun to untangle in 2022:

Montgomery had a 3.83 ERA (3.69 FIP) in 2021, so he was effective with the scrunched up pitch mix. He began to take off when he simplified his arsenal though, and that process began with the Yankees. Early in 2022 they had him throw fewer four-seamers and more sinkers, and cut back on the cutter greatly. That cutter experiment is pretty much over. He barely throws it now.

These days Montgomery is a sinker/curveball/changeup pitcher with a show-me four-seamer. The Cardinals had him throw more four-seamers after the trade in 2022 and a lot was written about the stupid Yankees not letting him throw his fastball, but the four-seamer thing didn’t last. Montgomery was back to using his sinker as his primary fastball in 2023.

“I don’t think we would change anything about how we used him,” Matt Blake told Dan Martin in Sept. 2022. “There’s definitely something to him being convicted to his plan and trusting the four-seamer when he throws it. But if you look at his pitches overall objectively, it’s the least of his pitches. That’s why it’s hard to validate that’s the pitch he should throw more often.”

Opponents hit .278 with a .478 SLG against Montgomery’s four-seamer in 2022 and that jumped to .333 with a .500 SLG in 2023. The velocity, spin, and shape of the pitch are unremarkable. Objectively, Montgomery’s four-seamer is not a great pitch. The Yankees realized that, the Cardinals eventually realized that in 2023, and the Rangers realized it as well.

Truth be told, Montgomery’s stuff doesn’t jump off the page. He has average velocity and spin, and the movement on everything is okay but not really great. What makes him successful is control and deception. It’s not just that he doesn’t beat himself with walks. Montgomery throws strikes without leaving pitches in the middle of the plate. He throws quality strikes. His 2023 numbers:

• Edge rate: 43.0% (MLB average: 42.6%)
• Fastball edge rate: 45.7% (MLB average: 44.7%)
• Middle-middle rate: 24.5% (MLB average: 26.4%)
• Fastball middle-middle rate: 28.0% (MLB average: 29.8%)

As for deception, that is accomplished in a few different ways. Montgomery tunnels his pitches very well (I first wrote about this in Nov. 2017), which doesn’t just mean everything comes out of the same release point. His pitches stay on the same plane – in the same “tunnel” – longer than they do for most pitchers, making it difficult to tell his sinker from his curveball from his changeup.

To put it another way, Montgomery’s pitches stay bunched together out of his hand and they don’t begin to separate until later in the flight path, when the hitter’s brain has less time to tell his hands to swing here because that’s where the pitch is going. Baseball Prospectus used to have stats on this stuff (not anymore, apparently) and Montgomery rated as an elite pitch tunneler.

Also, Montgomery has some funky spin axis stuff going on with his sinker and curveball. David Adler wrote about this last month and he explains it better than I can:

The easiest way to visualize how the ball comes out of Montgomery's hand is by picturing the face of a clock. Montgomery's sinker rotates in the "11:00" direction -- some backspin, some side-spin toward his arm side. His curveball rotates in the "5:00" direction, directly on the opposite side of the clock -- it tumbles down and toward his glove side … When Montgomery releases his sinker and curveball, they look the same because of spin mirroring. By the time they reach the batter, their movement has taken them to very different locations.

Got that? When hitters try to pick up spin, they’re really trying to pick up the spin axis. This guy’s heater spins north-south and his slider spins east-west, so that’s how I tell them apart. That kinda thing. Montgomery’s sinker and curveball spin on the same axis though (albeit in opposite directions). It’s much more difficult to tell them apart because of that.

And don’t forget Montgomery is a 6-foot-6 lefty. Lefties standing 6-foot-6 accounted for 2.3% of all innings last year and only four (Montgomery, David Peterson, Chris Sale, Brandon Williamson) threw 100 innings. It’s a look hitters don’t see often. Add in the tunneling, the spin axis stuff, and the fact Montgomery throws a lot of strikes, and yeah, he’s a handful despite just okay stuff.

Montgomery has always been a contact manager, not a bat-misser, and his contact quality (exit velocity, etc.) has held steady at a tick better than average the last three years. The concern is once Montgomery loses velocity – a totally normal thing that happens to just about every pitcher in his 30s – his margin of error shrinks, and that contact gets harder and harder.

That said, Montgomery set new career highs in average (93.2 mph) and max (95.9 mph) sinker velocity in 2023, and he’s thrown 127 pitches at 95 mph the last two years after throwing seven total prior to 2022. Montgomery will lose velocity eventually. It happens to every pitcher. There is no indication that velocity loss is imminent though. He’s gaining velocity.

Also, there’s no way to quantify this, but watching Montgomery in the postseason, he just looked more poised and in control. A few years ago he was prone to letting innings get away from him. A hit and an error or whatever would snowball into a four-run inning. He looks more mature and is better at buckling down. That’s just a young guy becoming a veteran, I think.

In this era of big velocity and cartoonish movement and pitch design, Montgomery is an outlier. His stuff is good but not really great. He has success because he’s always around the zone but not in the middle of the plate, and it’s difficult to get a read on his pitches because he tunnels them well and because his sinker and curveball spin on the same axis. In the old days they’d call a guy like Montgomery a pitcher, not a thrower.

“It’s been great just to kind of show what I’m worth, what I can do and what I’m capable of,” Montgomery told Greg Joyce during the postseason. “I had a career (3.94 ERA) with the Yankees. I wasn’t a bad pitcher, but I’ve kind of matured, gotten better every year, and I’m having my best year so far.”

Injury history

Montgomery needed Tommy John surgery six starts into 2018 and he didn’t make it back to the big leagues until Sept. 2019 (Montgomery told Pete Caldera he had a setback that summer), when he made two two-inning appearances. That’s the only injury of his career dating back to college, unless you want to ding him for missing two starts with COVID in 2021.

Contract projections

I’m not sure why I keep listing the contract projections when they’ve all been so low on pitchers this offseason, but I guess it’s better to have them than not. Here are Montgomery’s:

• The Athletic (subs. req’d): 5 years and $105M ($21M per year)
• ESPN (subs. req’d): 5 years and $106M ($21.2M per year)
• FanGraphs: 5 years and $105M ($21M per year)
• MLBTR: 6 years and $150M ($25M per year)

Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162M contract could be the benchmark for Montgomery, though they are basically the same age (Rodón is 17 days older than Montgomery), so Rodón last offseason was a year younger than Montgomery is this offseason. Also, Rodón’s two years leading into free agency were better than Montgomery’s. His demonstrated upside was much greater.

Montgomery has a much cleaner injury history and that matters, and that’s why I think he’ll get something close to Rodón despite being a year older at the time of free agency and not being as good in the two years leading up to free agency. Then again, who knows with this free agent market. Maybe Montgomery will get Aaron Nola money (seven years and $172M).

Montgomery and Snell are the two best free agent starters available and they’re both Scott Boras clients. Boras’ thing is waiting out the market until teams have nowhere else to turn. If Snell was represented by literally anyone else, Boras would wait until Snell signed before getting serious with Montgomery. That way he would have the top of the pitching market to himself.

How does it work when the top two free agents are both Boras clients? Beats me. (Boras also represents Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. He controls the entire top of the free agent market now.) I just know Boras is more than okay with waiting … and waiting … and waiting … to get the deal he wants. It’s January, but Montgomery’s free agency may not be close to a resolution.

Also, I must note Montgomery is not attached to draft pick and international bonus pool compensation. He was traded at midseason and thus could not receive the qualifying offer. Snell declined the qualifying offer. Given their luxury tax status, the Yankees would have to give up their 2024 second and fifth round picks and $1M in 2025 international bonus pool money to sign Snell. There’s no compensation with Montgomery.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

The short version is yes, clearly. The Yankees need rotation help and steady, reliable innings, and Montgomery is the best bet to provide them among free agents and one of the best bets to provide them in the sport. With Montgomery and Gerrit Cole, that’s twice every five days the Yankees would feel pretty good about their starter giving innings and pitching well.

Also, the Yankees know Montgomery. They know his personality, his work habits, what he’s like as a teammate, how he likes information presented, all that. It would be a seamless transition back into the organization, or at least as seamless as you could expect with a free agent. With Snell or any other free agent, you just don’t know how his way of doing things fits or how he’ll handle it until after you sign him. That unknown is eliminated with Montgomery.

(The Yankees have not so subtly suggested Joey Gallo and Sonny Gray were overwhelmed by New York. If you’re going to hide behind the “he can’t handle New York” excuse, then it stands to reason a player who’s already been here and done that would be a higher priority.)

The long version is a bit more complicated. Long-term deals for non-elite players (Montgomery is very good but I’d stop short of calling him elite) already in their 30s usually lead to regret. It won’t take much age-related decline for Montgomery to slip from a No. 2 to a No. 4. There’s a pretty good chance he just had a career year, and you have to pay a career year price to get him.

There’s also the Juan Soto component. The Yankees operate within a budget – a budget that is larger than most teams though likely not as large as it could be – and every dollar the Yankees give Montgomery in 2025 and beyond is a dollar they can not give Soto. Like it or not, any long-term deal given out this winter affects the ability to re-sign Soto next winter.

It’s one thing to compromise your ability to re-sign Soto by giving a long-term contract to a 25-year-old like Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s another to do it with 31-year-old Montgomery. At the same time, the Yankees only have Soto for one guaranteed year and they should be all-in on that one year, which is also Cole’s age 33 season and Aaron Judge’s age 32 season.

Signing Montgomery would improve the 2024 Yankees. Fairly significantly too. What it means for the 2025 and beyond Yankees is a problem for 2025 and beyond. I don’t love the idea of giving Montgomery a long-term contract but I also don’t know what else the Yankees can do. Options are limited and they’ve kinda backed themselves into a corner. Cole and Judge are at the age where the Yankees can’t punt decisions down the road. They need to get better now.

As far as we know, there are no hard feelings on either side. Brian Cashman never actually said Montgomery wouldn’t be in the postseason rotation in 2022, and Montgomery has spoken fondly of the Yankees since the trade. The idea Montgomery may have hard feelings toward the Yankees seems made up, and if not, that’s the kinda thing money can fix anyway.

“I’ve got no bad blood,” Montgomery told Greg Joyce during the postseason. “The Yankees drafted me, gave me (six) good years of being in the big leagues. I’ve got a lot of really good relationships still over there. Media can try to stir up as much bad blood, but I got nothing but respect for them.”

Also, did the Yankees learn anything from Montgomery’s time with the Cardinals and Rangers? The Yankees never let him go through the lineup a third time, but he did it regularly with the other two teams. Would the Yankees give him hundreds of millions of dollars to be a twice through the lineup guy, or do they now see Montgomery can give more than that? I would hope it’s the latter. At some point it will be smart to limit Montgomery to two times through the order again (once he ages and is less effective, etc.), though I don’t think that point will arrive in 2024.

My preference would be trading for one year of Corbin Burnes or two years of Dylan Cease, or I guess one year of Shane Bieber. I’d rather do that than sign Montgomery long-term. I’m not sure how likely those trades are though, and the Yankees can’t stand pat pitching-wise. Chances are we’ll hate the contract in 2-3 years, but if signing Montgomery is the best way to improve the 2024 Yankees, then do it. Expect Yankees Montgomery and be happy if you get Cardinals and Rangers Montgomery.

(To me, the ideal outcome would be getting two starters, and pairing Montgomery’s reliability with the upside of someone like Edward Cabrera.)

3. Injury updates. I’ve been meaning to round up the latest injury news the last few weeks – don’t worry, there are no new MLB injuries, these are basically rehab updates – but I kept putting it off for whatever reason. Let’s go through them now before these updates get really outdated.

Judge’s toe is a “resolved issue”

Aaron Judge’s toe injury is a “resolved issue,” and he will go into Spring Training as a fully healthy player. “We think it’s behind him,” Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch last month. I’m glad the Yankees feel that way, but we’ll find out in Spring Training, right? This team tends to be cagey and overly optimistic with injuries, including with Judge.

I suppose the good news is Judge performed very well even while being hobbled by the toe injury. There were times he was clearly not running at 100%, and yet the guy hit .245/.408/.557 (164 wRC+) after coming off the injury list, including .284/.452/.614 (187 wRC+) in September. That includes 18 homers in 57 games after returning, a 52-homer pace (lol).

In all seriousness, the Yankees intend to play Judge in center field most of the time in 2024, and I don’t think they would do that if there was any lingering concern about the toe. I wish they would have shut him down after falling out of the race in September, just to start the healing process as early as possible, but what’s done is done. Glad Judge is doing well.

Rizzo is “cleared and ready to roll”

At some point earlier this offseason Anthony Rizzo was cleared following his post-concussion symptoms and he’s ready to go for Spring Training, Aaron Boone said at the Winter Meetings. “He is cleared and ready to roll. Now it's about going out and proving it to himself,” Boone said, adding Rizzo was probably ready to play in games by the end of the regular season.

“Riz is doing great. He stayed back. He was in New York pretty much all of October and even into November, coming into the stadium and working out,” Boone said at the Winter Meetings. “I would say by the end of the season, he was probably game ready and ready to go. He's in really good shape … He's in the middle of a normal winter of training and getting ready, and I know he is really excited.”

Before the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr., Rizzo hit .304/.376/.505 (146 wRC+) in 53 games. After the collision, he hit .172/.271/.225 (44 wRC+) in 46 games. Incredible that two full months passed before the Yankees said you know, maybe we should get this guy checked out. Rizzo’s injury was the beginning of the end. The Yankees won the day he got hurt to improve to 32-23. After that, they went 50-57.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Juan Soto (and Alex Verdugo) can only help so much. The Yankees need the guys already on the roster to be better and to stay healthy, Rizzo included. The concussion was a fluke thing, players collide all the time and usually walk away fine, but it still happened and it took him out of commission. I’m glad he’s doing well. The Yankees badly need Rizzo at 100%.

Cortes completes rehab, resumes throwing

That might be confusing. What I mean is Nestor Cortes completed his rehab work following his second rotator cuff strain, then had his usual offseason rest period, and he has since started throwing as part of his normal build up to Spring Training. That’s what Matt Blake told Gary Phillips at the Winter Meetings, anyway. (Nestor posted video of himself playing catch last week, so he is indeed throwing again.)

“We wanted to get him back on the mound, so he got built up to where he got on the mound. That went well,” Boone told Phillips. “Then he went into shutdown, no-throw, and he just started his throwing program to build up for Spring Training (in early December). So he’s doing well.”

Rotator cuff strains are bad news, though what makes me feel a bit better is how good Cortes looked in his start back from the injured list. It was just that one start before he got hurt again, but he struck out eight in four nearly spotless innings against a very good Astros offense (video). That was 2022 Nestor. It’s still in there, or at least it was before the second rotator cuff strain.

Carlos Rodón gets all the attention because he has the big contract and hasn’t built up any goodwill with Yankees fans, but Cortes is every bit as important to the 2024 Yankees. I’m not sure he’ll ever be 2022 Nestor again, that guy was incredible, but they need him to provide a solid 5-6 innings every fifth day. Laboring through five innings each time out would be A Problem.

Domínguez doing well with rehab

Last month Boone said Jasson Domínguez is doing well with his Tommy John surgery rehab, adding “he’s going to look a lot like a regular player” when the Yankees get to Spring Training. What that means, I do not know. Based on the usual Tommy John surgery rehab timetable for position players, Domínguez should begin swinging a bat right around the time camp opens. Throwing competitively is still a ways off though.

“I just know he’s doing really well. We haven’t set an updated ‘when we expect him to be back’ necessarily, but I know he’s doing really well. I’m optimistic that it will be sooner than later,” Boone told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d). “... I think when he gets to Spring Training, he’s going to look a lot like a regular player. But we’ll see. It’s obviously not something we’re going to rush. We’re going to make sure he’s in a really good spot when he’s ready to come back.”

The Yankees should be all-in on 2024 with everything except Domínguez’s rehab. Don’t rush the kid back as a DH or anything like that – if things get to the point where the Yankees need him to come back as a DH, they’re probably screwed anyway – just let him rehab and get fully healthy, and come back without restrictions as a center fielder. Please don’t cut any corners with the talented 20-year-old.

Effross still “working through” rehab

This caught my eye. At the Winter Meetings last month, Blake told Phillips that Scott Effross is still “working through that process,” meaning Tommy John surgery rehab. That sounds not great? Effross had his elbow rebuilt on Oct 13th, 2022. 14 months out, he should be done with his rehab or very close to it. Blake makes it sound like Effross still has some ways to go.

Tommy John surgery is so common these days that it’s easy to think it’s routine, and everyone goes through their rehab and comes back as good as new. It is a major procedure though, and a lot of guys have setbacks along the way. If Effross had to hit pause on his rehab at some point, it would not be out of the ordinary, though it would create questions about his 2024 availability.

As things stand, the bullpen looks like this (40-man roster pitchers only):

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• High leverage: RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loáisiga
• Middle: RHP Scott Effross, LHP Victor González, RHP Ian Hamilton
• Depth: LHP Matt Krook, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Cody Morris, LHP Nick Ramirez
• Kids: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Yoendrys Gómez

If Effross needs more time to complete his Tommy John surgery, then he needs more time, and that’ll bump someone like Marinaccio or Morris off the roster bubble and into the Opening Day bullpen. Remember, Kahnle (shoulder) and Loáisiga (elbow) finished last year hurt. Blake says both are doing well, but still. There are several health questions out in the bullpen.

We didn’t see him much after the trade in 2022, so you’re forgiven if you don’t remember how good Effross is. He had a 2.54 ERA (2.46 FIP) in 56.2 innings in 2022, and the under-the-hood numbers were very good: 27.1% strikeouts, 6.6% walks, 44.6% grounders, 87.3 mph average exit velocity allowed, 4.0% barrel rate. Pre-Tommy John surgery Effross was awesome:

Hopefully post-Tommy John surgery Effross looks like pre-Tommy John surgery Effross. Even with his funky low arm slot, he dominates lefties (.127/.225/.211 in 2022), and he’s a legitimate high leverage option on a contender. He just turned 30 last month though, and losing a little stuff to elbow reconstruction could really cost him results. Fingers crossed Effross comes back well.

The larger point is Blake seemed to suggest Effross is behind in his rehab a bit, in which case he may not be ready for Spring Training or Opening Day. That would throw a wrench into the bullpen construction to begin the season. Hopefully I’m just reading too much into this (probably am) and Effross will be good to go in 2024. He was missed last season.

Hermann has Tommy John surgery

Right-hander Sean Hermann, my No. 28 prospect entering 2023, had Tommy John surgery in late November or early December, reports Kiley McDaniel. He’ll miss 2024 and should be good to go come Spring Training 2025, or close to it. 2025 will be Hermann’s 40-man roster and Rule 5 Draft evaluation year.

Hermann, who is still only 20, pitched a full season in 2023. He threw 107.2 innings with a 4.93 ERA (5.00 FIP) with Low-A Tampa before one spot start with High-A Hudson Valley to close out his year. The strikeout (18.1%), walk (9.3%), and swinging strike (9.8%) rates with the Tarpons were not good, though the 57.6% ground ball rate stands out.

Entering 2023, Hermann worked with a low-90s fastball as well as a slider and a changeup. The four-seamer became a sinker this summer and the slider didn’t really get better, though his changeup remains a very good pitch. The hope was Hermann would sharpen the slider and turn his fastball into a legit weapon. It didn’t really happen before his elbow began to bark.

I have to get started on the 2024 Top 30 Prospects List soon and I’m not sure Hermann, a 2021 14th round pick, would’ve made it even before the injury, and even with the farm system thinned by trades and graduations. Still, he doesn’t turn 21 until June and is by all accounts a smart kid. Hopefully he comes out of Tommy John surgery a little stronger, and things begin to click.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. My Bryan Hudson dream is dead. Long live my Bryan Hudson dream. The Dodgers traded the 6-foot-8 lefty to the Brewers earlier this week. Hudson had incredible Triple-A strikeout numbers last year (35.7%) and he’s an optionable lefty reliever at a time when the Yankees are short on lefty bullpen arms. Seemed like a good fit. The fact the Brewers, a smart team that does very well with pitching, picked up Hudson makes me think I was barking up the right tree. The thing is, I thought cash or a player to be named later would get it done. That’s usually all it takes to get a player who was recently DFAed. Instead, the Brewers gave up a pretty good prospect: LHP Justin Chambers, their 20th round pick in 2023. Chambers was a 20th round pick but the Brewers gave him fourth round money ($547,000), and that’s where he was expected to be drafted before having Tommy John surgery a few weeks before the draft. I’m not sure what the Yankees equivalent to Chambers is, but the Dodgers got a pretty good prospect for Hudson. Cash or a player to be named later wasn’t get that done. Ah well. Hudson would have lengthened the bullpen depth chart nicely.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Warren asks: With Montas off the board, what do you think of Sean Manaea. MLBTR was estimating $11m a year, 2 years perhaps an opt out. That seems like the type of decent reward, low risk move that could really help add another arm in short run without over committing to Montgomery etc., but starting to doubt the Yankees actually open their wallet for a fourth / fifth starter type and one of AAA arms / minor league signings is going to be critical to getting through a long season.

I’m glad someone asked about Manaea because I wanted to write about him, but also didn’t want to give him the full Scouting the Market treatment. Manaea, 32 next month, threw 117.2 innings with a 4.44 ERA (3.90 FIP) for the Giants in 2023. That was split into a 5.49 ERA (4.02 FIP) in the first half and a 3.43 ERA (3.79 FIP) in the second half. Beyond his second half performance, Manaea’s interesting for a few reasons. Let’s run through them.

He added a sweeper in 2023. In the middle of the season too. Manaea threw it for the first time on May 30th, and, by July, it was his most used secondary pitch. This relatively new pitch had a 35.1% whiff rate (MLB average for sweepers is 32.7%) and only a .229 xwOBA allowed. There is still some room to improve the consistency of the sweeper, but it’s a new pitch and it’s effective.

He added velocity too. Manaea trained at Driveline last offseason and they helped him iron out his mechanics, specifically improving his torso rotation. As a result, he added more than 2 mph to his fastball, and threw 34 of the 50 fastest pitches of his career in 2023.

With the Athletics back in the day, Manaea was a sinker/changeup pitcher. By the end of 2023, he was a four-seamer/sweeper pitcher, who still threw a good amount of changeups. Manaea doesn’t just have a new pitch (sweeper). He has an entirely new pitch mix. Who he was in 2022 (or even early in 2023) isn’t who he is now.

He’s versatile. The Giants used Manaea as a Swiss Army Knife pitcher last season. He made 10 starts, including four in April and four in September, and 27 relief appearances that ran the gamut. Manaea worked as a long man, a lefty matchup guy, a one-inning setup man, on long rest and short rest, you name it. On May 22nd, Manaea threw 83 pitches in 3.2 scoreless innings. Two days later he retired all four batters he faced, three via strikeout. This guy showed he can fill whatever role you need. That’s a valuable piece on a modern pitching staff.

Manaea posted career best strikeout (25.7%) and hard-hit (36.5%) rates in 2023, and he really eats up lefties. He’s not really a ground ball guy anymore (40.9%), though the contact he allows in the air isn’t especially hard. Manaea allowed 14 home runs while throwing about half his innings in spacious Oracle Park in 2023. Statcast says that, had he instead thrown every inning in Yankee Stadium, Manaea would have allowed … 14 home runs.

The Giants gave Manaea two years and $25M with an opt out last offseason and he used the opt out this offseason, and walked away from $12.5M. Lucas Giolito just got two years and $38.5M with an opt out, though he’s nearly three years younger than Manaea. That’s the contract these guys get nowadays though. Two years with an opt out. Does two years and $30M with an opt out work for Manaea? Does it work for the Yankees? Unknown, but my interest is piqued.

Several asked: What about Trevor Bauer?

It’s telling that, at a time when there’s not nearly enough quality pitching to go around, there has been zero reported interest in a 32-year-old former Cy Young winner who would almost certainly take a cheap one-year contract just to get his foot back in the door. Bauer was a headache who was tolerated before. Now he’s straight up persona non grata. Unrosterable.

Also, keep in mind Bauer and Gerrit Cole do not get along. It dates back to their time at UCLA. Bauer says they’re cool now, but the Yankees don’t care what he thinks. The Yankees care what Cole thinks and Gerrit has given zero indication things have been smoothed over with Bauer. This is different from the Cole/Josh Donaldson feud. This is said to be more personal.

Bauer had a 2.59 ERA (3.38 FIP) with a 25.2% strikeout rate in 156.2 innings with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in 2023. His teammate, Shōta Imanaga, had a 2.66 ERA (2.35 FIP) with a 29.5% strikeout rate, and is two years younger. The guy’s just not worth the trouble. The Yankees will look elsewhere to address their pitching needs. I don’t think Bauer ever pitches in MLB again.

Eric asks: Wanted to submit a question asking your thoughts on whether the yankees should be bringing back James Paxton on a one year deal?

I remember talking with my CBS colleagues about Paxton as a trade candidate at the deadline because he looked so good and the Red Sox stunk. I was surprised then to see he finished the season with a 4.50 ERA (4.68 FIP). Paxton had a 3.34 ERA (3.58 FIP) in 13 starts leading up to the deadline. It was a 7.62 ERA (7.64 FIP) in six starts after the deadline. Eek.

In possibly related news, Paxton got hurt again in September. This time it was his knee. He had Tommy John surgery in April 2021 and that (plus a few setbacks) kept him out until May 2023. All things considered though, Paxton’s stuff was good when he was on the mound last year. His velocity and all that was where it usually is, and he was effective for 13 starts.

Paxton is 35 now, so he’s several years older than the other reclamation project pitchers (Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino) who’ve gotten $13M to $16M this offseason. One year and $8M might be too much too. That’s what Martín Pérez and Wade Miley got, and they were healthy last season (and in Miley’s case, pretty good too). So one year and $5M, maybe?

My first inclination was to say no to Paxton because you can’t count on him to stay healthy, but he’ll come cheap, and even if you only get 13-15 starts out of him, that’s fine. Jhony Brito made 13 starts last year. You need a lot of pitchers to get through the season. Paxton should be cheap and he offers some upside. He can’t be the only rotation addition, but I’d be cool with it.

Andrew asks: The best starters left in free agency are Snell and Monty, and just given their track records it doesn't seem like either is a lock to be a frontline starter in 2024. On the flip side, someone like Matt Chapman almost definitely won't be worth the contract he gets, but there's a very good chance that he has the best 2024 out of every possible 3B that the Yankees could acquire. There's going to be a lot of competition for Snell and Monty, given the lack of mid-tier SP options and the extreme prices on the trade market. The prices might get crazy. Would there come a point that you just patch together a rotation and pivot back toward position players like Chapman, Bellinger, and Soler?

There are two ways to improve run differential, right? You can add runs offensively or limit them defensively. If you’re having trouble cobbling together the run prevention side of things, then loading up on run creation isn’t a bad alternative. It would lead to an imbalanced offense-heavy roster along the lines of the 2004-07 Yankees, but hey, those teams won 90-something games and went to the postseason every year. It can work.

Other than interest in role players like Gio Urshela, there is no indication the Yankees are looking to add offense, and I would be very surprised if they paid what it takes to sign Chapman or Cody Bellinger. For better or worse, they seem to consider the lineup set. I don’t think loading up on offense and going with patchwork pitching is a bad idea though. I don’t think it’s a great idea either, but it is a viable approach that could work if quality pitching is just too pricey.

David asks: Why aren’t we talking more about an outfield rotation? Any week Soto DHs 1-2x, Judge DHs 1x, Verdugo sits vs a lefty (Judge in LF), and that’s 3-4 games that Judge is NOT in CF. Then G becomes more like ’98 Strawberry. It’s not too hard to see Judge only playing CF in 50-60 games, right? Play your ballparks/matchups well and you can manage workloads/hide deficiencies…

I suspect that’s what will happen. And this will depend on Giancarlo Stanton as much as anyone. If he performs, it’ll be hard to take him out of the lineup. If he doesn’t, and his decline continues in 2024, then it’ll be easy to sit him and rotate Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Alex Verdugo through the three outfield spots and DH (though I’m sure Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and maybe even Austin Wells will get DH time too).

I will say that I don’t want to read or hear anything about load management with Soto. This will sound harsh, but the Yankees only have him for one guaranteed year, so run that guy into the ground. Soto just turned 25 and he’s played 151, 153, and 162 games the last three years (160 starts and two pinch-hitting appearances in 2023). DH days are fine, but I want that dude in the lineup every single day. He’s young and strong and can handle the workload.

If the Yankees clinch and want to sit Soto a day or two in late September, that’s cool. And if they re-sign him and don’t want to overload him in 2025 with an eye on the big picture, that’s okay too. Otherwise Soto needs to play every single game in 2024. Outfield, DH, whatever, but he has to be in the lineup. As for the outfield as a whole, my guess is the Yankees will rotate their outfielders until performance or injuries force them into a set alignment.

Brian asks: I vehemently disagree with your takes on Yammy. You keep tweeting snarky remarks on the Yankees coming up short and sharing how frustrated you are in the Yankees not matching the Dodgers offer. In my opinion, you are failing to see the bigger picture. The Yankees offer was heavily front loaded and included an opt-out one year earlier than the Dodgers offer. These aspects make the Yankees offer objectively superior to the Dodgers. The $25 million (as with the Cole leak) are red herrings. If he came to the Yankees during negotiations and said I want to come to NY, the Dodgers and Mets offered me $325, match it or I'm going to the Dodgers, the Yankees would have done so in a second. All the evidence suggests he didn’t want to come here. I'm surprised for someone who is usually so sharp about the business of baseball you are failing to read the tea leaves. I suppose agree to disagree.

We’ll have to agree to disagree. And respectfully, Brian is wrong about the Yankees offering Yoshinobu Yamamoto a heavily frontloaded contract. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), who I think we can all agree is trustworthy, says the Yankees offered 10 years and $300M “and the salaries each year were the same.” They did offer an earlier opt out – after the fifth year rather than after the sixth year like the Dodgers – but the contract was not frontloaded.

The Yankees go straight average annual value with all their big contracts and do not vary the yearly salaries. Aaron Judge is $40M a year every year. Gerrit Cole is $36M a year. Carlos Rodón is $27M a year. DJ LeMahieu is $15M a year. There’s really nothing creative about their offer. The Yankees offered Yamamoto the same contract structure they offer everyone. Did they do anything to stand out at any point during the process? It doesn’t seem like it, does it?

Ron Blum reported the details of Yamamoto’s contract after Brian sent in his question. Here’s the money breakdown:

• 2024: $5M salary plus $50M signing bonus ($25M on Feb. 1st and $25M on July 1st)
• 2025: $10M
• 2026: $12M
• 2027-29: $26M per year (can opt out after 2029)
• 2030-31: $29M per year (can opt out after 2031)
• 2032-35: $28M per year

There are some conditions on Yamamoto’s opt outs. Basically, he needs to not have Tommy John surgery between 2024-29 to get the 2029 and 2031 opt outs. If he does have Tommy John surgery, the opt outs get pushed back to 2031 and 2033.

Anyway, the Yankees offered $30M per year and an opt out after five years, so that’s $150M before the opt out. Yamamoto would need to sign a $175M contract after opting out (at age 30) just to break even with his Dodgers contract. Los Angeles will pay him $129M during the first five years of his contract. The Yankees offered an extra $21M during those five years, or $4.2M per year. It’s not that much more.

The earlier opt out is real value and the sort of thing that can put you in the lead when all else is equal. It was not equal though. The Yankees offered fewer years and fewer dollars, and they were never going to win a Yamamoto bidding war with fewer years and fewer dollars. They’re an 82-80 team that was going to have to really wow him and stand out, but they didn’t. They made an offer that was easy to dismiss because two other teams offered more.

Maybe Yamamoto was going to the Dodgers all along and there was nothing the Yankees could do. That is a distinct possibility. I wish we knew that for sure though. The Yankees were going to have to outbid the Dodgers – not match, outbid – to get his attention and they didn’t. If the Yankees try this “fewer years and fewer dollars but trust us it’s a better offer because of a higher AAV and earlier opt out” thing with Juan Soto next offseason, he's a goner.

Mark asks: I've been thinking about the Rays, and the fact that if I were an MBA student looking for a thesis topic, I'd study the TB club. I believe part of their success is attributable to their perceived weaknesses as an org: low attendance and media attention allows your players to develop without added pressure. It also allows them to eschew stars and employ platoons and openers. And finally, it allows them to trade stars at peak value, constantly restocking controllable low cost talent and keeping the payroll down. This, the Yankees could never copy. The part I'm curious about is player scouting, drafting and development. How are they so good at it year after year, without key personnel being poached by wealthier rivals? They lose people like Friedman, Bloom, and Bendix but remain excellent, suggesting that there are some operating theories at work. Someone needs to write a book, although I suspect the small TB market deters most writers with the experience and contacts to pull it off. Would love to know your thoughts!

There is definitely something to the lack of popularity contributing to their success, or more accurately how their success is defined/perceived. I don’t think it’s fair to say it is the reason for their success, or even 5% of their success, but it is part of it. The Rays are graded on an enormous curve. They have never in their history had a season that would be considered a success for the Yankees. The two franchises operate in completely different universes despite sharing a division. Tampa benefits from lower expectations.

As for player development, the Rays are excellent at finding players in other organizations those teams undervalued or have not optimized, and then maxing them out. Tampa’s draft track record is low-key spotty (the Yankees have more homegrown players on their 40-man roster than the Rays) but they’re the best in the business at finding the Randy Arozarenas and Isaac Paredeses and Jeffrey Springses. The guys other teams are sleeping on, and getting the best out of them.

How do they do it? I can’t answer that. If I could, I would probably be working for a team and not writing a blog. They have smart and innovative people who hire other smart and innovative people. The Tampa GM tree has been so-so other than Andrew Friedman (Chaim Bloom flopped in Boston, James Click got run out of the GM chair quickly because his people skills are lacking, and the jury’s out on Peter Bendix). It’s the analysts and boots on the ground coaches and scouts that make the Rays tick.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)