January 2nd, 2024: Montas, Weaver, Urshela, Red Sox, Cabrera

Happy New Year, everyone. In case you missed it Monday, I announced a minor change to RAB. Thank you to everyone who’s upgraded their subscription. As far as content, it’ll be business as usual here, and that includes me pointing out the occasional “this date in Yankees history” nugget. For example, the Randy Johnson trade was 19 years and one day ago. The trade that brought him to the Yankees, I mean. Not the one that sent him back to Arizona. Johnson was unreal in 2004: 2.60 ERA (2.30 FIP) with 290 strikeouts in 245.2 innings. He was, uh, not quite as good in 2005 and 2006. Let’s now get to the first post of 2024 as Greg Bird tears up the Australian Baseball League.

1. Latest hot stove news. Things began to pick up this past weekend, albeit not in a way that directly involved the Yankees. There were some rumors and a few moves tangentially related to the Yankees though. Here’s the hot stove latest.

Montas signs with Reds

So much for a Frankie Montas reunion. Frankie the Yankee is now Frankie the Red. Montas signed with the Reds for one year and $16M over the weekend. I gave him one year and $10M with $3M in incentives as part of my Offseason Plan, so yeah, I didn’t expect him to get $16M. $10M with $6M in incentives? Sure. But $16M guaranteed? Didn’t see that coming.

The thing is, $16M is not an overpay for Montas in this offseason’s pitching market. It’s only a touch higher than other “prove yourself” contracts, and that’s because you don’t have to look back as far to see the last time Montas had a good full season (2021) as you do with the other guys. Those contracts:

• Frankie Montas, Reds: $16M
• Jack Flaherty, Tigers: $14M
• Luis Severino, Mets: $13M

I was begrudgingly okay with a Montas reunion. It was more of a “given who’s available and what they all offer, I’ll take him, but I don’t love it” thing. Montas going to Cincinnati takes an option off the board and just reinforces that pitching is expensive. Reclamation projects and No. 4-5 types are getting eight figures nowadays. It’s not an overpay when everyone is getting it.

The Montas news made me think about another potential reunion: Luke Weaver. Weaver made three starts for the Yankees in September, one good (5.1 shutout innings) and two serviceable (three runs in four innings and two runs in four innings), which is a heck of a lot better than what he did with the Reds and Mariners earlier in the year (6.77 ERA and 5.75 FIP in 110.1 innings).

Weaver brought back his cutter at midseason (he hadn’t thrown it regularly since 2020) and Matt Blake had him throwing a slightly slower version that got a little more velocity separation from his fastball during his three starts with the Yankees. Maybe there’s something to that? It’s probably better to frame that question “maybe the Yankees think there’s something to that?”

Now 30, Weaver made $2M to throw 123.2 innings with a 6.40 ERA (5.61 FIP) last year. I can’t imagine he’ll get a raise (but who knows in this pitching market), and he might even have to settle for a minor league contract. As a non-roster guy who could spot start and be the long man who gets irregular work, Weaver could work. Either way, Montas is off the board now.

Yankees have interest in Urshela

Could the most happy fella make a return to the Bronx? Will Sammon (subs. req’d) says free agent Gio Urshela has attracted interest from several teams, including the Yankees and Mets. Urshela hit .299/.329/.374 (92 wRC+) in 62 games with the Angels last year before breaking his pelvis* on June 15th. Gio has played a few winter ball games back home in Colombia, so I guess that means he’s healthy.

* Urshela suffered the injury stumbling through first base (video) and apparently it sounds worse than it really was. He didn’t need surgery and was off crutches by early August. Gio even stayed in the game to play defense the next inning.

Now 32, Urshela’s skill set is the same as it was when he was last a Yankee – lots of contact, some pop, solid defense that the numbers don’t like as much as the eye test – though he’s a little older now and slower. Gio hit .310/.358/.523 (133 wRC+) during the rocket ball seasons from 2019-20. He was awesome. He’s hit a more modest .281/.323/.415 (106 wRC+) since.

At this point Urshela is a corner infielder who can play the middle infield in a pinch. If you need him to play second base or shortstop for a few innings or even a game or two, okay, but you probably don’t want to run him out there full-time when someone else hits the injured list. ZiPS projects a 104 OPS+ and +1.3 WAR in just under 400 plate appearances in 2024. That’s a solid part-timer/role player.

Assuming they send Oswaldo Cabrera to Triple-A, the Yankees have an open bench spot, and they have questions at third base (DJ LeMahieu’s age, Oswald Peraza’s bat) and first base (Anthony Rizzo’s concussion, LeMahieu’s age). A lefty hitter to complement LeMahieu and Peraza would be ideal, but who is that player? Jorge Polanco, if you’re willing to give up some pieces (I am), or I guess Yoán Moncada. I’d take Moncada to lower the prospect cost for Dylan Cease. On his own though? Eh.

Also, signing Urshela would not necessarily make it easier to trade Peraza for pitching because he’s not really a shortstop. Trade Peraza and the Yankees would be wise to bring in a legit backup shortstop, someone who can man the position for weeks at a time. Either that or roll with Jeter Downs (or Cabrera?), I suppose. I don’t see Urshela as anything more than an emergency shortstop. Not at age 32 and after a pretty serious pelvis injury.

Gio’s skill set overlaps with LeMahieu’s – contact over power, no speed, shouldn’t see much action on the middle infield – though the Yankees have enough corner infield questions that they can coexist. This feels like one of those potential moves where you wonder if it makes sense on Jan. 2nd only to wind up happy the Yankees did it on June 2nd. Know what I mean?

The Blue Jays have interest in Urshela, per Ben Nicholson-Smith, and both the Blue Jays and Mets offer a clearer path to third base playing time. Matt Chapman’s a free agent and Toronto currently has a Cavan Biggio/Isiah Kiner-Falefa platoon penciled in at third. Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball, so the Mets have Brett Baty (he’s stunk in MLB) and Joey Wendle.

Kiner-Falefa got two years and $15M and he’s three years younger than Urshela, he’s more versatile, he’s better on the bases, and he’s not coming off a major injury. Does one year and $8M work for Urshela? That’s what the Orioles gave Adam Frazier last offseason. Adam Duvall ($7M) and Jurickson Profar ($7.75M) were in the same salary range. I love Gio, but I wouldn’t go multiple years for him. Anything more than $8M or so seems awfully generous.

Similar to signing Jordan Montgomery, signing Urshela would not undo the bad trade the Yankees made. The trade is over and done with. Remove emotion and look at what the player provides now, and what the team needs. Do that and yeah, I can see how Gio could be a fit. It really depends how comfortable you are with LeMahieu and/or Peraza at third base. I’d like a little more depth there. Gio makes some sense, sure.

Red Sox get Giolito, trade Sale

Busy weekend in Beantown. First, the Red Sox signed Lucas Giolito to a two-year contract worth $38.5M. There’s an opt out and also a conditional third year club/mutual option tied to innings pitched in 2025. The conditional option feels like a ‘look how smart we are!” thing more than something that serves a practical purpose. Front offices these days, I tell ya.

For pitchers like Giolito – healthy, not old, something to prove – there is no such thing as a one-year contract anymore. Those guys get two years with an opt out (or one year with a player option, which is functionally the same thing). Seth Lugo, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, and Michael Wacha all signed contracts like that the last two offseasons. Two years with an opt out is the new one-year contract for mid-range pitchers.

The Yankees were not connected to Giolito at any point this offseason and I never thought much about him as a possible target. His last two seasons have been rough (4.89 ERA and 4.70 FIP) and he surrendered 41 homers in 2023. Pitching options are dwindling, but I’m not sweating the Yankees losing out on Giolito. There are too many red flags and downward trends in his game.

And second, the Red Sox traded Chris Sale! To the Braves, specifically. Sale made 20 starts and threw 102.2 innings in 2023. Who knew? Sale and $17M to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom. The Red Sox save $10.5M and get six years of a young second baseman. The Braves get Sale at $10.5M and have a reasonable $20M club option for 2025 in the event things go well.

Is it boring to say I like the trade for both teams? Grissom’s a good bat-to-ball guy (I wrote about him as a trade target in July) and the Braves get a potentially great veteran starter to help with their World Series push. They don’t need Sale to be an ace or even a No. 2 because they have Max Fried and Spencer Strider. They just need him to match Ranger Suárez or Bobby Miller or whoever in Game 3 or 4 in October. It’s a nice high upside roll of the dice for Atlanta.

Grissom was capital-B Blocked in Atlanta and an obvious trade chip. Trading him for a pitcher with longer term control and a less worrisome injury history would have been the way to go, but GM Alex Anthopoulos tried that before settling on Sale. Jeff Passan says the Braves tried to use Grissom to get Dylan Cease, but no luck. Sale was the best they could do.

Boston replaced Sale with Giolito, who is more likely to give them 170+ innings, while picking up Grissom and adding only $8.5M to their 2024 payroll. That’s a nifty work for new CBO Craig Breslow. Nifty enough to get them out of last place? Eh, I’m not ready to say that yet, but the Red Sox got better with this series of moves, I think. And that, by definition, is bad for the Yankees.

(Chris Cotillo says the Red Sox have told at least one free agent they need to shed payroll before they can make a serious offer. Cot’s estimates their 2024 luxury tax payroll at $191M, including arbitration projections. That’s well below the $237M threshold and last year’s $226M payroll. It would be their lowest since 2014. What in the world are they doing in Boston?)

Miscellany

Jon Heyman says the Yankees would like to bring back Jordan Montgomery, though their level of interest in Blake Snell is unknown. My boring take is they are both good pitchers, though they would fit better with different teams. Snell would fit best with a team that has the rotation depth to gamble on his upside, kinda like the Braves did with Sale. Montgomery makes more sense for a team that needs steady innings, like the Yankees. I do wonder what Montgomery’s market is now with the Rangers cutting back on spending because of the Bally Sports thing, the Red Sox telling free agents they need to cut payroll, the Dodgers preferring upside, the Braves addressing their pitching with Sale, and the Giants seemingly destined to be the runner-up for everyone. Hmmm … According to Enrique Rojas, the Blue Jays have “taken the lead” for Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. Rojas says the Blue Jays, Pirates, and Red Sox view Rodriguez as a starter while the Yankees and others peg him as a reliever. Toronto already has Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Yusei Kikuchi. Not much faith in Alek Manoah, eh? I’m not sure what to make of Rodriguez, though giving him a chance to start while knowing the bullpen is a fallback plan is a fine idea. Would he go for that though? Rodriguez will probably go to the team willing to give him the longest leash as a starter … And finally, Yakyu Cosmopolitan passes along word that Roki Sasaki’s 2024 contract talks with the Chiba Lotte Marines are ongoing and taking longer than usual because he wants to be posted next offseason. Assuming that happens, Sasaki will be only 23 and subject to the international bonus pools. And if it happens, I would guess a) it will be announced in the coming weeks that he is being posted, and b) that he’ll be posted a little later than usual next offseason so his 45-day posting window extends into the 2025 international signing period next Jan. 15th. That gives teams a heads up and plenty of time to get their 2025 bonus pools in order rather than expect them to make it work on short notice in 2024. I’m sure the Yankees will try to sign him whenever the time comes, but I assume Sasaki’s a Dodger.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Edward Cabrera. At some point between now and Opening Day, the Yankees will add to their starting rotation. I think? Probably. I thought they would add a left fielder last offseason and they never did, so I guess there’s a chance they won’t bring in a starter(s) this winter. I think they will though. What was the point of the Juan Soto trade if you’re just going to skimp on pitching?

“Onboarding pitching is gonna be important,” Brian Cashman told Peter Sblendorio last month. “We’re in the market for pitching. See if we can reinforce it. We like the pitching we have, but we also recognize that if we can add to it, it’s important to do. The rotation-bullpen combo, all the above, from an insurance standpoint or something established that you can plug and play with, we’re going to continue conversations in that arena.”

The free agent market offers several good but not really great options, at least not at the current prices, and who knows whether trade candidates like Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, and Dylan Cease are even truly available. Their teams don’t seem especially eager to move them. It’s not a great offseason to need pitching. It never is, really, but especially not this one.

According to Jon Heyman, the Marlins are at least willing to discuss their starting pitchers. That’s despite losing Sandy Alcantara to Tommy John surgery in October, trading Pablo López for Luis Arraez last offseason, and trading top pitching prospect Jake Eder for Jake Burger at the trade deadline. Miami’s rotation depth chart currently looks something like this:

1. LHP Jesús Luzardo
2. LHP Braxton Garrett
3. RHP Eury Pérez
4. RHP Edward Cabrera
5. LHP Trevor Rogers (limited to 18 innings in 2023 by injuries)
6. LHP Ryan Weathers
7. RHP Bryan Hoeing
8. LHP A.J. Puk (will get stretched out in Spring Training)
9. RHP Max Meyer (coming back from Tommy John surgery)
10. RHP Sixto Sánchez (has thrown one inning the last three years because of injuries)

I know he’s been hurt, but geez, I didn’t realize Sixto has thrown just one inning (in Double-A) the last three years. He was so good in 2020. Anyway, you can see how that rotation can be really good and really exciting, and also completely come apart at the seams. The Marlins probably should add a veteran innings guy this offseason. They’re listening to offers though.

Luzardo’s the big name and I’m not sure the Yankees can put together the kinda trade package the Marlins will want for him without including Jasson Domínguez or Anthony Volpe. He doesn’t seem all that realistic to me. Same with Garrett, and Pérez is untouchable. That leads me to Cabrera, who the Yankees requested during Gleyber Torres trade talks at the 2023 deadline.

The Gleyber rumor at the deadline tells us the Yankees have some level of interest in Cabrera, and they could circle back and rekindle talks with the Marlins this offseason. What’s Cabrera’s deal? Is he worth pursuing? Let’s take a deep dive into the young man and see what’s what.

Background

Cabrera, 26 in April, was a $100,000 signing as an international amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in July 2015. He wowed in rookie ball and really broke out in 2019, when he threw 96.2 innings with a 2.23 ERA (3.06 FIP) and a 30.3% strikeout rate between High-A and Low-A. Cabrera was a staple in the back half of top 100 prospect lists from 2020-22.

The Marlins added Cabrera to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes after the 2019 season. He spent 2020 at the alternate site and made his MLB debut as a September call up in 2021, and made seven starts during that final month. Cabrera got a little more MLB time in 2022 and even more in 2023. Here are his surface stats at the MLB level:

That’s a mighty fine combination of strikeouts and ground balls. Too many walks, for sure, and the walks have been a constant issue at the upper levels. Cabrera had a 7.4% walk rate at Double-A and below and he’s had a 15.9% walk rate at Triple-A and above. His walk rate has more than doubled since he escaped Double-A for good.

Still though, look at those strikeout and ground ball rates! Over 200 pitchers (218 to be exact) threw at least 180 innings from 2021-23 and only seven paired a 26% strikeout rate with a 48% ground ball rate: Tyler Glasnow, Clay Holmes, Lance McCullers Jr., David Peterson, Adam Ottavino, Tanner Scott, and Cabrera. It’s an exclusive club with some premium arms.

Also, Cabrera has limited hard contact as well. In the not insignificant sample of 99.2 innings last season, Cabrera held hitters to an 87.6 mph average exit velocity, below the 89.0 mph league average. You have my attention, Mr. Cabrera:

Missing a lot of bats and getting a lot of weak ground balls will get you to heaven. Cabrera is not a finished product, that walk rate needs work, but the tools for success are here. The Marlins are pretty good at developing pitchers. If they can’t get Cabrera to throw more strikes, the Yankees might not be able to either, but sometimes the change of scenery and new voices help.

Pitch mix

Cabrera averaged 92.9 mph and topped out at 95.7 mph in 2023 … with his changeup. It is a dastardly pitch with a ton of fade away from lefties. Statcast’s pitch values rated it as one of the 12 best changeups in the game last year and hitters missed with 36.3% of their swings against it (MLB average is 31.1% for changeups). Sometimes, you just need a GIF:

At what point does that stop being a changeup and start being a sinker? I mean, 95 mph with that kinda movement, that’s basically a sinker even though Cabrera throws it with a changeup grip. A changeup like that is such a weapon. You can throw it in any count to any batter, and you’ll fool them. Understandably, the changeup was Cabrera’s most used pitch in 2023 (31.4%).

Cabrera sets up that changeup with two fastballs – four-seamer and sinker – that average about 96 mph and topped out at just under 100 mph in 2023. Despite the velocity, the four-seamer isn’t all that great. The spin and induced vertical break are unremarkable, so it’s more hittable than you might expect. The sinker is the more effective fastball even though Cabrera throws it less often than the four-seamer (9.5% vs. 27.6%).

As for a breaking ball, Cabrera has both a curveball and a slider, though the curveball is the better pitch and apparently a more natural pitch given his arm slot (so says people smarter than me). The curveball sits mid-80s and Cabrera has thrown it as hard as 88.4 mph. We got dudes throwing 88 mph curveballs and I still see people saying “just shorten up and put the ball in play.”

This is a three-pitch, three-curveball at-bat. Poor Sal Pérez. He didn’t deserve this (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Because he features his curveball so prominently, Cabrera can’t completely shelf his four-seam fastball. Elevated four-seamers best set up curveballs, and sinkers and two-seamers best set up sliders. Cabrera’s slider is just okay, but he has the makings of four-seam/curve and sinker/slider combinations, plus a very good changeup. That’s an excellent foundation.

The GIFs and the highlight videos (here’s one) make Cabrera look like the best pitcher on Earth. He has filthy, filthy stuff. What they don’t show are all the noncompetitive pitches out of the zone. The pitches that lead to all those walks. Cabrera threw only 42.3% of his pitches in the zone in 2023. Among the 172 pitchers with at least 80 innings, only Blake Snell was worse (40.4%).

Snell won the Cy Young! And other really good pitchers like Kodai Senga (45.5%), Charlie Morton (45.7%), and Corbin Burnes (45.8%) were bottom 15 in zone rate. Senga’s moneymaker is a splitter that dives out of the zone. Morton has that big curveball that gets hitters to go fishing. Burnes gets ahead with the cutter then, like Morton, puts hitters away with a curveball.

Not every pitch is designed or intended to be thrown in the zone and Cabrera, a guy with a nasty changeup and a power curveball, is the kinda pitcher who figures to pitch in the zone less often than most. He wants hitters to chase. You still have to be around the strike zone enough to tempt hitters though, and Cabrera isn’t with his fastballs.

• Four-seamer: 49.3% zone rate in 2023 (MLB average: 54.9%)
• Sinker: 40.9% zone rate in 2023 (MLB average: 55.9%)
• Changeup: 35.1% zone rate in 2023 (MLB average: 39.4%)
• Curveball: 47.5% zone rate in 2023 (MLB average: 43.6%)

The changeup and curveball are more or less where they need to be. The fastballs are too low though, especially the sinker. At the risk of oversimplification, Cabrera “just” needs to throw more strikes with his fastball. Do that with the velocity he has, and his changeup and curveball will be even more effective than they already are. That’s the missing piece. More fastballs for strikes.

“Cabby is good. He's throwing 97 mph with a really effective changeup and a really good curveball. He just needs to get in the strike zone,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker told Christina De Nicola in August. “It's not like he hasn't done it before. That's what I think is frustrating … When he's in the strike zone, he punches guys out. Or weak contact.”

Cabrera’s delivery is fairly simple and he repeats it well, and he threw plenty of strikes in the lower minors. Is there a physical reason he is unable to throw more strikes now? Is this merely a young pitcher learning the ropes? Does he need a change of scenery? Glasnow had a 13.9% walk rate with the Pirates, then he got to the Rays and cut to it 7.8%. A change of scenery can work.

The Yankees aren’t the Rays when it comes to coaching up pitchers but they have gotten pretty good at it – Holmes had a 14.9% walk rate with the Pirates and it’s 7.5% with the Yankees – and maybe that’s all Cabrera needs. New coaches, new teammates, new voices around him. Cabrera doesn’t lack talent. It’s a live, live arm. How do you get the most out of it?

One thing I will say about Cabrera’s walks is framing matters. The Marlins were a middle of the pack framing team in 2023 (-3 runs) and Cabrera had a 43.7% edge rate. Those are pitches in the “shadow” of the zone as defined by Statcast. The MLB average is 42.6% and Cabrera’s edge rate was identical to Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen, Mike King, and several other really good pitchers.

The league average is 46.2% called strikes on edge pitches. For Cabrera, it was 40.6%. That’s not all on Miami’s catchers (pitchers who are wild tend to get fewer borderline calls), but they did contribute to it. The Yankees had a 49.1% called strike rate on edge pitches, though a lot of that was Kyle Higashioka. Still, Jose Trevino is a top of the line framer. He could help Cabrera.

(For what it’s worth, Statcast says only seven pitchers got less help from their catchers in the framing department than Cabrera last year. Hmmm.)

Injury history

Cabrera’s injury history is lengthy enough that the 128 innings he threw between Triple-A and the big leagues in 2023 are a career high. He’s had a nice build up though: 87.2 innings in 2021, 110 innings in 2022, and 128 innings in 2023. Lower totals than you’d like, but at least Cabrera is trending in the right direction. Here is the injury history:

• 2019: Missed most of August with an unknown injury (in the minors).
• 2020: Had a back issue at the alternate site.
• 2021: Missed most of August with a biceps issue.
• 2022: Elbow tendinitis at midseason (missed close to two months).
• 2023: Shoulder impingement at midseason (missed a month).

Elbow and shoulder issues the last two years, and those are never good. No surgeries though, and Cabrera’s stuff bounced back from each injury. He came back from the injured list throwing gas each and every time. Still, there are injuries, and the best predictor of future injury is past injury. Cabrera’s had multiple arm issues and that’s a red flag.

Contract status

Cabrera entered the offseason with one year and 147 days of service time, so he has five years of team control remaining, and he’s very likely to qualify as a Super Two next offseason. That means he’ll go through arbitration four times instead of the usual three, and be a little pricier than the typical player during his team control years. Not a big deal. Few million bucks, that’s all.

Also, Cabrera is out of minor league options. He used his final option last season and now he can not be sent to Triple-A without being exposed to waivers. That ain’t happening – Cabrera would get claimed by the first team in the waiver order – so he’s on your big league roster next season, no questions asked. There’s no sending him to Triple-A for more seasoning.

What would it take to get him?

Two decades ago every fan trade package was Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy. Then it was Miguel Andújar and Clint Frazier. Now it’s Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira. They’re the two young players Yankees fans have deemed expendable (after seeing them struggle in MLB, of course) and are now willing to move in any trade involving a remotely big name. It is the way of the world.

The thing is, Peraza actually makes sense for the Marlins, and we know they’ve had interest in him previously. Two years ago they wanted him as part of a Gleyber Torres/Pablo López trade. A trade the Marlins proposed! The catch here is that was when Kim Ng ran the show. She left the Marlins earlier this offseason. Does the Peter Bendix regime want Peraza? Beats me.

Miami does need a shortstop though. They pursued Isiah Kiner-Falefa for the job, according to Craig Mish, but got outbid by the Blue Jays. Their projected starter is utility man Jon Berti, and youngsters Jacob Amaya, Vidal Bruján, and Xavier Edwards are better suited for other positions. The free agent shortstop market is weak and the Marlins have payroll limitations to navigate.

If nothing else, Peraza’s a legit shortstop who can play the position and play it well, and he offers some potential with the bat. How much? We’re still figuring that out. Peraza might not hit and Cabrera might not throw strikes or stay healthy. There’s risk on both sides.

Maybe there’s the potential for a larger trade? The Marlins have several good lefty relievers and the Yankees could use a new one of those. Tanner Scott is projected to make $6M or so through arbitration in 2024, his final season of team control. Including an expensive (for them) rental reliever in a Peraza/Cabrera trade and receiving an additional prospect(s) could interest Miami.

Surprisingly few potentially high-end starting pitchers with five years of control have been traded in the last decade. Well, no, they get traded, but they’re often included in a larger trade in which a contender parts with a young player to get an established big leaguer. Glasnow (Chris Archer), Joe Musgrove (Gerrit Cole), and Nathan Eovaldi (Hanley Ramirez) were all dealt in such trades.

As best I can tell – decent chance I’m missing someone here – the last time a young starter with five years of control was traded and he was the centerpiece of the trade was Michael Pineda. Pineda’s tenure with the Yankees didn’t go as planned, but when they got him, he was coming off an All-Star season with a 3.74 ERA (3.42 FIP) in 171 innings. Pineda then > Cabrera now.

That’s a long-ish way of saying there’s no good benchmark for a Cabrera trade, which is a bigger problem for us (trying to figure out what it’ll take) than the Yankees and Marlins (building a trade package from scratch). The Yankees had interest in Cabrera last trade deadline and the Marlins had interest in Peraza under Ng, plus they desperately need a shortstop now. It fits.

The Yankees could, in theory, take back a bad contract to lower the prospect cost, though the only bad contract on Miami’s books is Avisaíl García. He’s hit .215/.260/.316 (59 wRC+) and been a -1.6 WAR player the last two years, and is owed $12M in 2024 and then $17M in 2025 between salary and his option buyout. Not sure what the Yankees would do with García other than release him. Point is, he’s the only bad contract the Marlins have to offer.

On paper, the Peraza for Cabrera framework seems workable. The Marlins get a needed shortstop, the Yankees get a needed starter. Maybe other pieces have to be included to even things out and maybe it becomes a larger trade with the Yankees getting a lefty reliever or something. Miami trading a starter to get shortstop and the Yankees trading a shortstop to get a starter seems reasonable.

(We have to keep in mind pitching is very in demand this offseason. I mean, Vaughn Grissom got one discounted year of late career Chris Sale. Peraza for Cabrera could work on paper, though I suspect the Marlins could get a lot more.)

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

There are two ways to look at Cabrera. One, he’s incredibly gifted. The curveball is vicious, the changeup is an equalizer, and there’s reason to think he can be more effective by emphasizing the sinker over the four-seamer. Cabrera’s already demonstrated the ability to get strikeouts and weak ground balls at the MLB level. Guys with this much talent are always worth pursuing.

And two, Cabrera is really risky. He’s had a hard time throwing strikes and he’s had two different arm injuries the last two years. The Yankees could use more reliability in their rotation given the injury and workload concerns that exist behind Gerrit Cole. Cabrera would be another boom or bust type arm in a rotation already heavy on boom or bust types. Is that what the Yankees need?

That all said, reliable pitching is a bit of a myth. Sandy Alcantara was as reliable as anyone until suddenly his elbow decided nope, that’s enough. The Yankees are also at the mercy of the market. Who can you reasonably count on to take the ball every fifth day among available free agents? Jordan Montgomery and … Michael Lorenzen? The guy who lost his rotation spot in September?

Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease are two of the 13 pitchers to make 93 starts the last three years. They may or may not be available. And, if they are, you’ll have to surrender a hefty package to get them. If you want guys you can count on to give quality innings, you’ll have to pay big to get them, either in dollars (Montgomery) or prospects (Burnes, Cease, etc.). And even then you might not get those quality innings.

These are the Yankees and the clock is ticking on Cole’s and Aaron Judge’s peak. Paying big to get the talent they need is something they should do, though the Yoshinobu Yamamoto pursuit shows they’re still operating with some restraint. Like it or not, this team sticks to its valuations. If they miss out on a player because the price is wrong, so be it. They’re prepared to do that.

In a perfect world Cabrera is the second starting pitcher the Yankees acquire behind a more proven veteran. The guy they bring in now that Frankie Montas on a one-year prove yourself contract is no longer an option. This isn’t a perfect world though. Free agent and trade options are limited and there are a lot – A LOT – of teams trying to add pitching. You can’t get caught chasing the Perfect Fit and let the rest of the market pass you by.

I came away from this exercise liking Cabrera a lot more than I expected. It’s top shelf stuff and long-term control, and I’m hopeful he can get the walk issues ironed out through maturation and better framing. There’s injury risk, no doubt, but every pitcher is an injury risk, and that’ll be baked into the cake when you’re negotiating the trade. I’m in on Cabrera. Are the Yankees? Hope so.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)