December 21st, 2023: Downs, Giants, Mailbag

I'm aware of the new issue of post emails coming with a “Continue Reading” button that redirects you to the Patreon site. It hasn’t happened to me yet (even with non-RAB Patreon posts) but I’ve gotten multiple complaints. I’m trying to figure out how to get rid of it, so please bear with me. I swear, every Patreon update is worse than the last. Here now is Friday morning’s post Thursday afternoon just in case Yoshinobu Yamamoto decides to sign at some point in the next few hours (I hope he does, let’s get this over with already). Things have been pretty quiet around Mr. Yamamoto the last 48 hours or so. When things are kept out of the media, that usually means contract talks are getting serious.

1. Yankees claim Downs. I figure you’ve all had your fill of “YANKEES GET JETER” headlines this week, so I kept it simple. As I’m sure you know, the Yankees claimed infielder Jeter Downs off waivers from the Nationals earlier this week. Yes, Downs is named after Derek. His father was a Derek Jeter fan, so he named his son Jeter. Derek and Downs met back in 2020.

"It was (surreal)," Downs told Ian Browne about meeting Derek after a friend in the Marlins system connected them during Spring Training, back when Derek was still Marlins CEO. "I've idolized him my whole life. It was finally good to meet him and talk to him a little bit. It was definitely special."

Downs is well-traveled. The Reds took him with the No. 32 pick in 2017, then traded him to the Dodgers in the Yasiel Puig deal in Dec. 2018. The Dodgers traded him to the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade in Feb. 2020, then Washington claimed him off waivers in Dec. 2022. Now the Yankees have claimed him in Dec. 2023. The prophecy has been fulfilled.

The 25-year-old Downs is a former top 100 prospect who hasn’t performed above Double-A. He’s a career .202/.306/.370 (80 wRC+) hitter with a 29.7% strikeout rate in 231 Triple-A games, including .236/.358/.379 (91 wRC+) in 51 Triple-A games around an injury in 2023. Concerns about his noisy swing and the ability to handle upper level stuff were well-founded.

Downs is an 8-for-44 (.182) hitter with one home run in sporadic big league time with the Red Sox and Nationals. You may remember him going 2-for-3 with a double and a homer against Gerrit Cole at Yankee Stadium two years ago (video). Downs went 2-for-4 with four walks with Washington in 2023. That’s a 1.067 OPS. Did Derek ever have a 1.067 OPS? I think not.

Defensively, Downs has mostly played shortstop in his career, and he has experience at second and third base as well. Scouting reports indicate he fits best at second but can play second or third in a pinch. Downs has an option left and is ticketed for Triple-A Scranton, where he and the recently acquired Jorbit Vivas figure to be the regular double play combination.

Downs and Alex Verdugo were the two key pieces in the Betts trade (Connor Wong, the third player, was Boston’s backup catcher in 2023) and now both are with the Yankees. I think this means the Yankees won the trade? I've never been happier about a rival trading away a player than I was after the Betts trade. I was ready to hate Mookie all the way to Cooperstown. Now I can like him and not feel dirty. Thanks, Red Sox.

Anyway, I am now rooting for two things. First, Verdugo putting it together in his contract year and having a huge season while Downs carves out a big league role, and the two of them combining for a higher WAR in 2024 than they gave the Red Sox in four years. FanGraphs has them at +6.8 WAR with Boston from 2020-23. That’s … doable? Unlikely, but not impossible. This would be a hilarious outcome. I need it to happen.

And second, Downs carving out that MLB role while Roderick Arias blossoms, so the Yankees can one day have Jeter and Rod-A on the left side of the infield. Baseball is a flat circle. Man, I miss the peak Mark Teixeira, Robinson Canó, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez infield. The four of them combined to hit .310/.385/.519 (134 wRC+) with 112 homers and +20.6 WAR in 2009. Lordy.

Getting back to business, Downs is deep infield depth and he might not even stick on the 40-man roster all offseason. We’re gonna get hit with an avalanche of “YANKEES DFA JETER” headlines at some point, either in the next few weeks or sometime further down the road. The Yankees still have two open 40-man spots. The DFA line beyond them is probably:

1. Estevan Florial
2. Jeter Downs
3. Oscar Gonzalez
4. Ben Rortvedt
5. Matt Krook

The Yankees only have 16 pitchers on the 40-man roster, several of whom are working their way back from a major injury (Nestor Cortes, Scott Effross, Luis Gil, etc.), so I’m not sure they’ll cut pitchers anytime soon. Either Downs or Florial figures to be first to go when 40-man space is needed. Cut the spare position players before further depleting the pitching depth. Welcome, Jeter. Make your namesake proud.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: San Francisco Giants. The Giants landed their first big name free agent since Barry Bonds* last week when they signed Jung-Hoo Lee to a six-year contract worth $113M. Did they have to overpay to get him? “It was such a huge offer that my knees buckled a bit,” Lee told Jee-Ho Yoo after returning to South Korea. Make of that what you will.

* Give or take.

Even after signing Lee, the Giants have holes all over the roster, including at shortstop. Stalwart Brandon Crawford will turn 37 next month and he slashed .194/.273/.314 (63 wRC+) with awful defense (-14 DRS) in 94 games around injuries in 2023. It seems likely this is the end of the line for Gerrit Cole’s brother-in-law. Crawford may be headed for a forced retirement.

Top prospect Marco Luciano made his MLB debut this summer, though it didn’t go well (9-for-39 with 17 strikeouts), and he’s played only 88 games above A ball. Back injuries and the pandemic limited him to 930 plate appearances the last four years. Luciano could use more minor league seasoning. It’s no surprise then that the Giants are looking for a shortstop, per Susan Slusser.

Specifically, the Giants are looking at the trade market for a shortstop, because there isn’t much to see in free agency. Here are the top free agent shortstops by projected 2024 WAR:

1. Amed Rosario: +2.3 WAR
2. Tim Anderson: +1.6 WAR
3. Gio Urshela: +1.1 WAR
4. Brandon Crawford: +0.9 WAR
5. Elvis Andrus: +0.8 WAR

Rosario rates terribly at shortstop (-16 DRS in 2023), Anderson was arguably the worst everyday hitter in baseball this year (60 wRC+), and Urshela a) isn’t a shortstop, and b) is recovering from a broken pelvis. The fourth guy on the list is the guy the Giants are trying to replace. It’s easy to understand why San Francisco has turned to the trade market for a shortstop.

The Yankees, in theory, have a spare shortstop: Oswald Peraza. They’re committed to Anthony Volpe at short, and unless he wrestles third base away from DJ LeMahieu (or someone gets hurt), Peraza doesn’t have a path to regular playing time next year. His next full-time opportunity may not come until Gleyber Torres is allowed to leave as a free agent next offseason. That’s a long wait.

San Francisco is said to prefer a stopgap shortstop with Luciano coming, which could lead them to a larger trade for a rental like, say, Willy Adames or Ha-Seong Kim. They do need a long-term third baseman though (J.D. Davis will be a free agent after 2024), and there’s some thought third base will be Luciano’s best position anyway. Peraza seems like a fit for the Giants.

Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) recently reported the Giants are “entertaining” the idea of trading a young pitcher(s) to address other needs on the roster, though they probably need to add a veteran starter before actually trading a kid. The Giants need a shortstop and have pitching, the Yankees need pitching and have a shortstop. You can see where I’m going with this.

Peraza was not included in the Juan Soto trade because the Padres are loaded with infielders. The Yankees had to surrender four pitchers in that trade, including three MLB-ready guys, and sending Peraza to the Giants could be a way to replenish the pitching pipeline. The Yankees would have to come up with a new backup shortstop, though that’s doable (Luis Guillorme?).

With the Peraza for a Giants pitcher idea planted, let’s take a look at the young arms the Giants can offer, and whether any of them make sense for the Yankees.

RHP Tristan Beck

2023 stats: 3.92 ERA (4.00 FIP), 19.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, 40.8 GB% in 85 IP (MLB)
2024 ZiPS: 4.40 (4.31 FIP), 20.6 K%, 8.1 BB% in 94 IP
Contract status: All six years of team control, two minor league options

The Yankees drafted Beck a few years ago (29th round in 2017) but didn’t sign him, and his younger brother Brendan is in the farm system now. Tristan made his MLB debut this past season and mostly pitched as a bulk innings guy behind an opener, and he pitched well. The underlying numbers weren’t great, though Beck has interesting pitch traits.

Beck, 27, operates with a mid-90s fastball with carry at the top of the zone, a traditional upper-80s slider with downward snap, and one of those bendy low-80s sweepers that moves so much it looks like Bugs Bunny threw it.

Beck also has a curveball and a changeup, though he didn’t feature them much this season. The Giants are very slider/sweeper heavy – Giants pitchers threw 31.9% sweepers and sliders in 2023, by far the highest rate in MLB (the Pirates were second at 28.3%) – so Beck threw 37% fastballs, 55% sliders and sweepers, and 8% everything else. My UCL hurts.

Going into 2023, the various prospect scouting reports labeled Beck a potential No. 4-5 starter as long as he stays healthy (he missed time with back problems in 2021 and 2022). These pitch data dudes with ungodly movement can get underrated though. A lot of them get written off as back-end starters, then they keep finding another gear (see: King, Mike).

Beck seems like a Jhony Brito/Randy Vásquez replacement more than someone who steps right into the rotation no questions asked, and there’s nothing wrong with that. It takes a lot of pitchers to get through 162 games and depth starters like Beck, Brito, and Vásquez are important. The Yankees have to replenish their depth at that level between now and Spring Training.

RHP Mason Black

2023 stats: 3.71 ERA (4.26 FIP), 30.3 K%, 10.2 BB%, 40.8 GB% in 123.2 IP (AA and AAA)
2024 ZiPS: 4.35 ERA (4.39 FIP), 22.3 K%, 9.1 BB% in 109.2 IP
Contract status: Hasn’t made MLB debut, not on 40-man roster (Rule 5 Draft eligible after 2024)

A third round pick in 2021, Black split 2023 evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, and like most others, he had trouble with the automated strike zone. His walk rate jumped from 8.3% to 12.0% following the promotion and his swinging strike rate slipped from 12.1% to 10.7%. Black missed a lot of bats overall, and he logged a good amount of innings.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked the 24-year-old Black as the No. 8 prospect in San Francisco’s system a few weeks ago. Here’s a snippet of their write-up (here’s video):

His primary two weapons are a mid-90s sinker and a sweepy slider in the low 80s. He will mix in the occasional four-seam fastball as well, and he added a gyro slider later in the year as an early-count offspeed pitch that helps him steal strikes and can be landed in the zone more easily than a sweeper … Black has the potential for average control … He’s an extremely hard worker who is constantly looking for ways to up his game and shows a particularly intense demeanor on days when he starts … Black will return to Triple-A in 2024 and has the ceiling of a back-end starter who can eat innings. Because his arsenal is so limited, however, his more likely home is in the bullpen.

Triple-A Statcast indicates Black’s sinker runs in on righties more than it dives down toward the bottom of the zone, which isn’t bad or anything. I just think it's more of a two-seamer than a true sinker. Black doesn’t have a reliable third pitch yet and it’s really hard to stick as a starter as a two-pitch guy with average-ish control. A spot in the bullpen beckons.

The Yankees need all kinds of pitching, both starters and relievers, and I’d be interested to see what reliever whisper Matt Blake could do with Black. Unless the Yankees believe Black can start though (they thought Clayton Beeter could start when no one else did, so who knows), I can’t see them trading Peraza for a likely reliever. Not unless they’re getting another piece(s).

LHP Kyle Harrison

2023 stats: 4.66 ERA (5.15 FIP), 35.6 K%, 16.3 BB%, 35.9 GB% in 65.2 IP (AAA)
2024 ZiPS: 4.23 ERA (4.20 FIP), 27.8 K%, 11.6 BB% in 106.1 IP
Contract status: All six years of team control, all three minor league options

I’m going to keep this section brief because I assume Harrison is off-limits. The 22-year-old is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, albeit a risky one given his inconsistent strike-throwing and unrefined third pitch. He made his MLB debut in August and struck out 35 in 34.2 innings. In his second start, Harrison fanned 11 Reds in 6.1 scoreless innings. Here’s video.

If the Giants entertain Peraza for Harrison, it would make me wonder if there’s something I’m not seeing with Harrison (or Peraza, I suppose). He seems like the guy the Giants will keep. Harrison is their stud, their top prospect, and they’re not going to part with him to get a shortstop when their other top prospect is also a shortstop. The other pitchers in this post are more realistic targets.

LHP Carson Whisenhunt

2023 stats: 2.45 ERA (2.82 FIP), 35.3 K%, 9.8 BB%, 41.9 GB% in 58.2 IP (A+ and AA)
2024 ZiPS: 4.17 ERA (4.25 FIP), 23.6 K%, 9.3 BB% in 77.2 IP
Contract status: Hasn’t made MLB debut, not on 40-man roster (Rule 5 Draft eligible after 2025)

Whisenhunt entered 2022, his draft year at East Carolina, as a potential top 10 pick, but he was suspended right before Opening Day after testing positive for a PED. He did not pitch at all his last year in college. The Giants rolled the dice in the second round and Whisenhunt lived up to his potential top 10 pick billing this summer, at least before forearm tightness ended his season in July.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Whisenhunt, 23, as the No. 4 prospect in the Giants’ system a few weeks ago. Here’s part of their scouting report (here’s video):

The crown jewel of Whisenhunt’s arsenal is his changeup—or, more accurately, his changeups. He has three variations of the pitch—differentiated by the placement of his fingers—that he can use to vary the depth of its break and land it in the zone for a called strike, add a touch of fade or let the bottom completely fall out. He complements the changeup with a four-seam fastball and curveball. The former averaged 94 mph and topped at 97 while showing excellent life through the zone. Now, the key is the development of Whisenhunt’s curveball, which is a 1-to-7 bender with decent power at an average of 79 mph … Evaluators inside and outside the organization believe adding a cutter could be helpful. Whisenhunt has potentially above-average control … His future hinges on the development of the breaking ball. If he can find one that becomes a true third option, he could fit as a No. 4 starter with a chance at a bit more.

Forearm tightness is a common precursor to Tommy John surgery and the good news is Whisenhunt has so far avoided going under the knife. The bad news is it is not certain he’ll be ready for Spring Training, according to Gerard Gilberto. Buying low on a talented but injured pitcher could be worthwhile, though of course it is risky.

Chances are Whisenhunt will not be a meaningful contributor in 2024. That makes him a Drew Thorpe replacement as a potential changeup heavy rotation piece for an undetermined point in the future. Restocking the cupboard isn’t a bad idea. It’s just that, given the state of the roster, the Yankees should be all-in on 2024 if they trade Peraza. Not worrying about 2025 and beyond.

RHP Keaton Winn

2023 stats: 4.68 ERA (4.37 FIP), 20.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 58.0 GB% in 42.1 IP (MLB)
2024 ZiPS: 4.28 ERA (4.24 FIP), 21.5 K%, 7.7 BB% in 96.3 IP
Contract status: All six years of team control, two minor league options

During the season I’m up late most nights working on stuff for CBS or RAB, and I put on West Coast games to keep me company. There are so many random guys out on the West Coast. Guys I’ve never heard of and guys I probably forget five minutes later. Just random guy after random guy. West Coast baseball is like a different universe of guys.

I was watching a Giants game one night this past season (Sept. 10th, apparently) and there was this guy I’d never heard of before with a nasty splitter, striking out nine Rockies in six innings and getting 22 whiffs on 80 total pitches (46 swings!). And that’s how I learned Keaton Winn existed. Here’s the video. Winn was dominant that evening.

A fifth round pick in 2018, Winn rode the shuttle this summer, making five spot starts and four long relief appearances in the big leagues. The soon-to-be 26-year-old pitched well in Triple-A (4.81 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 25.1 K%, 9.9 BB%) relative to the absolute chaos that was the Pacific Coast League this summer (the PCL averages were a 5.70 ERA and .272/.369/.453 batting line). Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote about Winn in June:

After losing two seasons of development — one to the pandemic and the other to Tommy John — Winn climbed to the upper levels of the minors very quickly in 2022 and was recently promoted to San Francisco. Over the last year, he’s been stretched out from working just two or three innings at a time to working as many as six, either as a starter or long reliever. Winn has had success in a long relief role in the majors even though he’s only working with two-and-a-half pitches, a four- and two-seam fastball and his devastating splitter, which is one of the nastier ones in pro ball. He also has a slider that he used 7% of the time at Sacramento, but that hasn’t yet been deployed at the big league level. Winn is a little bit stiff, and despite relatively strong strike-throwing performance, the eyeball evaluation of his delivery tends to funnel him toward the bullpen. Limited in-zone fastball utility (his heater has downhill angle and run) adds to this, though we projected Winn’s repertoire depth would enable him to work multiple innings and so far that’s been true. Regardless of the specifics of his role, Winn’s velocity and splitter fit somewhere in the meaty middle of a contending team’s pitching staff.

The Yankees need to improve the meaty middle of their pitching staff, and Winn has a carrying pitch in his splitter. If you have an elite pitch – not to mention two fastballs that averaged 95.8 mph in 2023 – you have a great chance to carve out a big league role. Help that slider along and Winn’s a three-pitch guy with a swing-and-miss splitter. That’s a strong foundation.

Alex Cobb will miss the start of the season following hip surgery, so San Francisco’s rotation right now is Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, Ross Stripling, ???, and ???. And Stripling was so bad this year that he got put on the phantom injured list. I have to think Winn is penciled into one of those ??? spots. He’s a rotation piece for the Giants and could be hard to pry loose.

* * *

Harrison is presumably untouchable, Beck is fine, Black is probably a reliever, and Whisenhunt’s forearm injury puts him in the danger zone where at any moment he may need surgery that will sideline him until the middle of 2025. Winn stands out to me. The splitter is great, the fastballs are firm, and he has a history of missing bats, getting grounders, and limiting hard contact at the highest level of the minors.

Trading six years of Peraza for six years of a guy like Winn would be a letdown given the Peraza hype the last few years, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable. Peraza’s not unseating Volpe and I have no idea how he’s supposed to get continue his development as a part-time player in 2024. He has value as an injury replacement and LeMahieu insurance policy, otherwise Peraza is in a holding pattern.

With Trey Sweeney traded, the shortstop depth chart behind Volpe and Peraza is, uh, Jeter Downs? It’s basically empty. Trade Peraza and then lose Volpe to a pulled hamstring or a fluky hit-by-pitch injury, and we’ll be begging for Isiah Kiner-Falefa at short. That said, Spring Training is two months away. Plenty of time to find a capable backup shortstop.

Keep in mind pitching is in short supply and the Giants might get better offers for Winn (or Beck or whoever) than Peraza. Peraza’s stock is down at the moment because he hasn’t hit at all in the big leagues, though he is a non-doubt shortstop with good defensive chops. Those guys are pretty hard to find and the Giants badly need one. Their defense stinks.

The Giants are at a place right now where they really need to contend in 2024. Attendance fell to tenth in the National League in 2023 and ownership is beginning to run out of patience. Manager Gabe Kapler was fired at the end of the season. The next step is usually a front office change. For that reason, POBO Farhan Zaidi may prefer Adames or Kim to the unproven Peraza.

But again, the Giants need a shortstop and have pitching, and the Yankees need pitching and have a shortstop. Maybe something can be worked out here, and that something wouldn’t need to be dependent on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision. Peraza for a Giants pitcher is something that is sensible no matter where Yamamoto lands. The teams match up well on paper.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Anthony Volpe received a $246,549 bonus through the pre-arbitration bonus pool, per the Associated Press. He was the only Yankee to get one. The bonuses are determined using some mystery joint WAR calculation and Volpe received the smallest bonus among the 100 eligible players. I have no idea how the math works on that. Whatever. Julio Rodríguez got the largest bonus at $1.9M. Corbin Carroll ($1.8M) and Spencer Strider ($1.7M) were also in the top four bonuses. Those three all have long-term contracts. Maybe guys with extensions should be exempt from the bonus pool since their payday is locked in? I dunno. I guess if you earn the bonus, you earn the bonus. These bonuses come out of MLB’s central fund. They aren’t paid directly by the team, though each team is responsible for 1/30th of the $50M pool. It’s a $1.67M annual luxury tax charge for the Yankees no matter how the bonuses are distributed … And finally, coming soon to the YES Network: Bernie Williams. Maybe. Andrew Marchand says YES executives are talking to Bernie about a potential role, likely beginning with pregame and postgame work in the studio before moving into the booth to call games. Bernie is pretty funny whenever he makes an appearance in the booth, plus he has good stories, so I hope it works out. Maybe YES will let him bring his guitar and replace the rain delay saxophone with a Bernie jam session.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Taylor asks: I know it shouldn’t, but do you think a massive contract to Yamamoto will impact Hal’s desire to re-sign Soto? Seems he’s been reluctant in the past to pass certain arbitrary payroll thresholds, and in the span of two years handing out massive deals to Judge-Yamamoto-Soto could be too much for him. Again, it shouldn’t be a factor -it’s the Yankees after all - but a year from now Hal could be looking at nearly $200m/year in contracts to Soto/Judge/Cole/Yamamoto/Rodon/Stanton alone.

Yeah, it’ll probably be a factor. Hal Steinbrenner has a way of coming up with excuses to limit spending (remember when the Yankees couldn’t sign Bryce Harper because they were going to have to pay their core homegrown players?) and I’m sure we’ll get some next offseason with Juan Soto, no matter how 2024 plays out. There’s always an excuse.

Let’s say, hypothetically, the Yankees sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 10-year contract worth $300M. An even $30M per year. In that case, the Yankees would have these contracts on the books long-term (these are luxury tax hits, not actual salary):

• Aaron Judge: $40M per year through 2031
• Gerrit Cole: $36M per year through 2028 (2029 if they void his opt out)
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto: $30M per year through 2033
• Carlos Rodón: $27M per year through 2028
• Giancarlo Stanton: $22M through 2027
• DJ LeMahieu: $15M per year through 2026
• Aaron Hicks: $10M per year through 2025

That’s $180M per year for seven players. Soto’s next contract will probably have an average annual value north of $40M. That’s where Judge set the bar. Let’s call it $42M a year, so that’s $222M per year tied up in only eight players (one of whom has already been released). Six of the remaining seven are already in their 30s, and in some cases deep into their 30s. Yikes.

Keep in mind though, Hicks comes off the books one year into Soto’s next contract. LeMahieu comes off two years into it. The third year will be the first year of the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, when the luxury tax threshold figures to climb over $250M (it will be $244M in 2026). Stanton then comes off the books after that season. Once we get beyond 2024, we’ll start to see the light at the end of some of these contract tunnels.

I want the Yankees to prioritize 2024. Put the best possible team on the field in 2024, and worry about what happens later later. The Yankees have wasted enough time screwing around with discarded Texas Rangers and infielders playing the outfield. Just pay what it takes to put the best team on the field next year, because the other approach ain’t working. That involves signing Yamamoto, and then figuring out the Soto situation next offseason.

With any luck, the Yankees will land Yamamoto, and Soto will have an all-time great contract year – one that makes Judge’s contract year look like Joey Gallo’s – and Hal and the Yankees will have no choice but to re-sign him. Get Yamamoto, make the 2024 Yankees as good as they can possibly be, then figure out 2025 when we get there. It’s too early to worry about re-signing Soto.

Colin asks: Talk of Yamamoto getting over 300 mil is concerning to me. Wouldn't it make more sense to go all in on Burnes for one year and then sign Soto in free agency? What do you think it'd take to get Corbin? You mentioned it recently, but I'd love to explore it more in depth. Milwaukee is heavy in young outfielders so can't see them wanting Jones or Pereira right now. Maybe Peraza & Hampton as the base? At this point, if I'm the Yankees I go for it, as long as you're not trading Arias.

When I opened this email, my eyes were drawn to “Corbin” for some reason, and I thought Colin was asking about trading for Patrick Corbin. I was momentarily mad at myself for failing you readers.

As for Corbin Burnes, word is the Brewers are getting calls (duh) but are not shopping him, and plan to keep him for 2024. It kinda feels like they’re waiting to see what happens once Yoshinobu Yamamoto signs, and the teams that miss out come calling. Milwaukee has only cut salary (Mark Canha, Adrian Houser, Tyrone Taylor) and made minor additions this offseason (Jake Bauers, Taylor Clarke, Eric Haase, Wade Miley, Joe Ross).

Burnes just turned 29 and he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last three seasons, posting a 2.94 ERA (2.92 FIP) with a 30.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in 562.2 innings. That includes a 3.39 ERA (3.81 FIP) in 193.2 innings in 2023. There are a few red flags. These numbers are going in the wrong direction:

Those 2023 numbers are very good, but Burnes has lost five percentage points off his strikeout rate each of the last two seasons, and his walk rate is ticking up. He went from being a top of the line bat-misser, basically the best in the sport, to merely above-average. His ground ball rate is slipping too, so he’s now a 1.02 HR/9 guy* rather than the 0.32 HR/9 (!) guy he was in 2021.

* Burnes allowed four homers in four innings in his Wild Card Series start. It was the third time in 2023 he allowed at least three homers in a game. He had zero three-homer starts from 2020-22.

Burnes is a cutter pitcher. It’s a mid-90s pitch and he throws it about 55% of the time. Off that he throws a curveball and a changeup, and the occasional sinker. Matthew Trueblood explained the sinker, specifically Burnes’ ability to locate it, has been an issue lately. This all said, we’re nitpicking here. Even the 2023 version of Burnes is really freaking good.

It’s been a while since one year of a legit ace was traded, so we don’t have a good reference point for a Burnes trade. Also, Burnes is a Scott Boras client and he’s downplayed the possibility of an extension. Similar to Juan Soto, you have to assume you’re trading for one year of Burnes and one year only. You’ll have to win a free agent bidding war to keep him beyond that.

The Brewers went quantity over quality with the Josh Hader trade, a trade that was very poorly received in the clubhouse. That was also a David Stearns trade. Stearns is with the Mets and Matt Arnold is running the Brewers now. Arnold may prefer 1-2 top prospects to 3-4 good pieces that raise the team’s floor, but maybe don’t provide as much impact. I dunno.

The Yankees may be a poor trade match for the Brewers. Willy Adames is a year away from free agency, but Milwaukee already has a “great defender who may or may not hit” replacement shortstop lined up in Brice Turang. I’m not sure Oswald Peraza appeals to them. They’re also overloaded with outfielders, so Everson Pereira and Spencer Jones aren’t great fits.

More than anything, the Brewers need pitching. Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder surgery and non-tender was a major blow, and their overall pitching depth isn’t great. Seems to me the ideal Burnes trade package would include an MLB-ready starter, a near-MLB-ready pitching prospect, and then secondary pieces. Might as well play around with the Trade Values site:

You have my attention, Trade Values site. Ideally the Yankees would add Burnes to Schmidt, but Burnes is much more likely to be an impact pitcher in 2024, and thus meaningfully improve the Yankees’ World Series odds. Replacing Schmidt with Burnes would move the needle and likely in a big way. Hampton, arguably the best pitching prospect still in the system, and Schmidt’s additional three years of control are the cost of doing business.

(Burnes is a slam dunk qualifying offer candidate next offseason, so the Yankees would recoup a prospect via the compensation draft pick if he leaves as a free agent. It would only be a pick after the fourth round given their luxury tax status, but that’s the same range where they found guys like Hampton, Richard Fitts, Will Warren, etc. Mid-round picks can be very useful.)

I would much rather surrender a Peraza and Pereira package, but those two don’t seem to fit what the Brewers need. Burnes for Schmidt and Hampton is more realistic, I think. The Yankees would have to add another starter on top of Burnes to round out the rotation, but Gerrit Cole and Burnes would be a fierce 1-2 punch in 2024. We’ll circle back to Burnes if the Yankees miss out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He’s an obvious Plan B.

Stuart asks: Yamamoto. Am I wrong in thinking the winning contract will be the one that is front-loaded with lots of opt-outs? Say 10 years for $360M; broken down in $40/yr for the first 5 years with opt=outs after yr 4, and yr 5, then $32M/ yr for every year after?

I don’t think you’re wrong. I just don’t think anyone has any idea what Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s contract will look like. Frontloaded with opt outs is smart. Pay him the most during his late-20s, which figure to be his most productive years, then pay him less in his 30s, which a) are likely to be his decline years, and b) encourages him to opt out and seek a bigger payday. I’m sure Yamamoto would prefer to get the most money upfront too. Who wouldn’t want the biggest payday now?

The problem with this is teams prefer the opposite. They would rather pay Yamamoto less now because a) you might be able to escape the biggest money years via the opt out, and b) a dollar down the road is worth less than a dollar today. Also, that big salary in Years 8-10 or whatever could be some other GM’s and/or owner’s problem. If you have to frontload the contract to get a deal done, they’ll do it, but I suspect most teams would prefer a backloaded contract.

Nick asks: If the Yanks sign Yamamoto, is he eligible for the prospect promotion incentive draft pick? Or are there rules to exclude foreign professional players from this?

He is not. Matt Eddy says players classified as “foreign professionals” are exempt from Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, so the Mets won’t get one for Kodai Senga even though he finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting*. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will surely be classified as a foreign professional and thus not earn his MLB team a PPI pick when the time comes. Even though they’re rookie and prospect eligible, it’s the right move to make KBO and NPB veterans ineligible for the extra draft picks given to teams that do not manipulate service time. They aren’t the players the MLBPA is trying to get to the big leagues with PPI picks.

* Senga would not have qualified for a PPI pick anyway because he didn’t appear on two of the three top 100 prospect lists as required. He was on Baseball America’s top 100 but not ESPN’s or MLB.com’s.

Christian asks: So, let’s say we miss out on Yamamoto (hopefully we don’t but stuff happens), would it be wise to maybe take that 300M+ and split it into maybe 2 160-180 contracts for Snell / Montgomery?

The problem with that is two $150M-ish contracts are not the same as one $300M contract. Let’s say Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s contract is 10 years. That’s $30M a year. Give Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell identical six-year contracts worth $150M, that’s $25M a year each, and $50M combined. Same total dollars but a much larger average annual value.

The Yankees will continue to add pitching even if they do sign Yamamoto, with a Frankie Montas reunion most likely. Reclamation project starters are going for one year and $13M to $14M this offseason (Jack Flaherty and Luis Severino). Call it $14M for Montas. Would you rather Montas and Yamamoto for a combined $44M in 2024, or Montgomery and Snell for a combined $50M?

There are good arguments in favor of both groups. I would go Montas and Yamamoto because you’re getting Yamamoto’s mid-to-late 20s, his peak years, and Montas is just a one-year deal with little risk. We’re talking about locking up Montgomery and Snell at big dollars when they're already on the wrong side of 30. Then again, they might be the better tandem in 2024, and 2024 should be the priority.

Financially, Montgomery and Snell rather than Yamamoto doesn’t really work because the annual salaries would be out of whack, though signing a second starter like Montas would even it out. Yamamoto being only 25 is the separator for me. He can help in 2024 and well beyond, and it’s only one long-term contract. Not two long-term deals for guys in their 30s.

George asks: I don't hear much about Luis Gil in talks about next season. I know he is coming off an injury and walked too many in the minors, but I liked what I saw in his short MLB stint with the Yanks. Is he even in the conversation for 2024?

Gil finished his Tommy John surgery rehab this summer and made two rehab appearances with Low-A Tampa. The pitch data (velocity, movement, etc.) was where it was before elbow surgery, so Gil looked like himself in those two rehab games. At the Winter Meetings, Matt Blake told Gary Phillips that Gil is on an offseason throwing program and is expected to contribute next season.

Blake didn’t specify a role for Gil and that’s not surprising. Gil will start and/or relieve depending on the team’s needs and we don’t know what their needs are right now. Long-term, I think Gil will wind up being a really dominant one-inning reliever. With the rotation being what it is, might as well stretch him out in Spring Training just so he’s ready to start, if necessary.

Control is often the last thing to come back following Tommy John surgery, so it might be tough sledding for the control-challenged Gil initially. We’ll see him next year though. I’m sure of it. I’m hopeful Gil will emerge as a trusted bullpen weapon by the second half. The Mike King role (2-3 innings at a time) would be great, but I’d be happy with a shutdown one-inning guy too.

Sam asks: Is there a way of selling a “10th man” type role to Joc Pederson? His second half was meh last year but first half was very strong and metrics look still strong including K and BB rate. Wish he played some 1B a little more recently than 2019 is the only thing. But you could sell him on Stanton being on the IL by Memorial Day. What do you think, something like 1 year 12 mill?

It would be a hard sell. Joc’s still good enough to start for a contender, or at least play regularly on the heavy side of a platoon. I’m not sure how effective a “don’t worry, Giancarlo Stanton will get hurt eventually, then you’ll play” sales pitch is. Pederson hit .241/.351/.435 (115 wRC+) against righties this past season and that was with Oracle Park muting his home run power.

I’m not sure if I’m surprised Pederson is only 31 or already 31. He’s simultaneously younger and older than I would’ve guessed. Anyway, Joc is close to a full-time DH these days, which limits his usefulness. This could be one of those situations where, come June, we’re saying the Yankees really could’ve used Pederson. But, right now in December, he should be able to get more playing time elsewhere. Joc is a good fit for the Yankees as a tenth man, but the Yankees don’t seem like a good fit for him.

Paul asks: So the Yankees got last minute international money* from the Pirates (for Billy McKinney) and used it to sign Justin Capellan. Cool. Was Pittsburgh just going to not use the money? I always assumed every team used their full allocation on international signings every year, is that not correct?

*It's just the allocation of money, right? Like, you're allowed to spend $X. The pirates didn't actually send the Yankees any money, right?

Answering the second question first, yes, the Pirates only traded the allocation of bonus pool money to the Yankees. No cash changes hands in these international bonus pool trades. The Yankees essentially traded for the right to spend their own money.

As for the first question, I guess so? The signing period closed the day the trade was made and I doubt the Pirates broke an agreement(s) so they could trade the bonus pool money for literally Billy McKinney (no offense, Billy). Wouldn’t you rather use that money to sign a prospect or two, then pick up some other non-roster Quad-A outfielder? It’s impossible to get a full accounting of international signings, so I have no idea how often teams do not spend their full bonus pool. I bet it happens a few times a year and isn’t that uncommon.

(The Pirates had a $5.8255M bonus pool this year and Ben Badler lists $5.13M worth of signings in his international review (subs. req’d), and notes Pittsburgh didn’t give out any other six-figure bonuses beyond what he listed. I guess they had a decent chunk of unspent bonus pool money to trade to the Yankees.)

Tyler asks: I finally pulled the plug on my cable subscription and found it pretty surprising that, of the big live streaming services (YouTube TV, Hulu, Fubo, etc.), only the DirecTV option carries YES. I think I'm enough of a sicko that I'd pay the $25/mo. fee directly to YES for its streaming service but when I asked a few cord-cutting friends, who are informed-yet-casual Yankees fans, how they watch, they balked at the YES cost and said they only watch games broadcast elsewhere. Obviously these are anecdotes and not necessarily trends, but are you worried at all about the potential downstream impacts of the current streaming environment and how it might impact the Yankees' overall marketability over the long-term?

Me? I’m not worried. It’s not my problem. MLB and the individual teams are worried though, have been for years, including the Yankees. Direct-to-consumer streaming services are good for fans, but teams lose passive subscribers that way. The people who don’t watch YES but are paying for it as part of their cable package. Those subscribers go away with cord-cutting.

This is all coming to a head now with the Bally Sports situation, but until I see otherwise, I will believe baseball will be a-okay. There will probably be some short-term pain, but MLB will figure out a way to make up the lost revenue and come out even better than they were before. The history of the sport tells us that will be the case. The owners and Rob Manfred will act like baseball is dying and you should pity poor us for a bit, then everything will be fine. I have no idea what the solution is, but they’ll find one. They always do.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)