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May 4th, 2023: Bader, Cabrera, Offense, Peraza, Trivino, Rays, Mailbag

Six years and one day ago, Brett Gardner hit a go-ahead two-out, two-strike, three-run home run in the ninth inning at Wrigley Field. Here’s the RAB recap. It was an absolute stunner (video) and one of those early season moments that made the 2017 Yankees feel real. Gardner’s comeback homer was the start of a three-game sweep of the defending champs in their building (the finale went 18 innings on Sunday Night Baseball, you may remember). Good times. The Yankees have an off-day, so here is Friday morning’s post Thursday evening.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees won the season series 4-2 against the Guardians, which could come in handy come postseason tiebreaker time. Also, in all six games the team that took a 2-0 lead went on to lose. If the Yankees are going to turn their season around, I guess the trick is to never take an early lead and always play from behind. Good plan. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Bader returns

Harrison Bader returned Tuesday and although Aaron Boone insisted it was not a panic move, it felt kinda like a panic move. A day earlier the Yankees placed Aaron Judge on the injured list and suffered a hideous loss, and Bader did not play a full nine innings in center field on back-to-back days during his rehab assignment like the Yankees said he would. Maybe it really wasn’t a panic move. Kinda felt like one though.

“That can never be a part of the equation,” Bader said when asked whether he came back ahead of schedule because of the team's injuries and struggles. “It’s easy to kind of fall into that, but there was never any pressure from the Yankees on their side to push anything along. The same on my side. I know what I have to feel to be effective for this team to help them win.”

Panic move or no panic move, Bader is indeed back, and he is 1-for-7 with an infield single in two games. He’s already made an impact defensively – Bader killed a rally with a diving catch Tuesday (video) – and the bat will come around soon enough. How much will it come around? I don't know, it’s difficult to pin down what kinda hitter Bader really is, but he’s no worse than every non-Judge outfielder the Yankees have run out there this season.

And because these are the 2023 Yankees, Bader got hurt in his second game back. Bader and Isiah Kiner-Falefa collided in the ninth inning Wednesday (video) and Bader exited the game. Afterward, Boone said Bader is okay and in "really good spirits," so congrats to Harrison for being the only person to watch the 2023 Yankees and be in good spirits.

The Yankees are averaging one injured list stint every 2.46 games this season* and Bader is the first player they’ve gotten back. He’s not a star but he is way better than the guys they’ve used in the interim, and it’s nice to see one more actual Major Leaguer in the lineup. And the sooner Bader’s bat gets going, the better. The Yankees need it.

“Just really excited to be back,” Bader said Tuesday. “There’s a job to be done so I’m excited to get back in the lineup, and just start playing some baseball and help these guys win.”

* I’m fudging a bit. The Yankees have placed 13 players on the injured list this year but most of those injuries happened last year (Scott Effross, Luis Gil), in the offseason (Frankie Montas), or in Spring Training (Tommy Kahnle, Carlos Rodón, Ben Rortvedt, Luis Severino, Lou Trivino). They haven’t had 13 new injuries since Opening Day, as my stat implies.

Signs of life from Cabrera (maybe? possibly?)

Let me start by saying Oswaldo Cabrera is hitting .196/.227/.272 (32 wRC+) and that is very bad. Extremely bad. There is a minimum acceptable standard on offense and Cabrera is not meeting it, particularly since he spends most of his time in left field, a position with a pretty high offensive bar. Cabrera has been a major disappointment in the early going.

That said, there are maybe some signs of life here? Cabrera has not struck out in his last 30 plate appearances and he’s struck out only three times in his last 50 plate appearances. He struck out 16 times in his first 48 plate appearances this year, or 33.3%. Cabrera has been able to whittle his season strikeout rate down to 19.4%, well south of the 22.9% league average.

Also, Cabrera is chasing much less the last few weeks, and his swinging strike rate is down too. For the season he’s at 10.6% swinging strikes, a tick below the 11.0% league average and way better than where he was two weeks ago. Here’s his chase rate:

“I’m working on my strike zone discipline,” Cabrera told Gary Phillips recently. “I feel that I’m not swinging at bad pitches, but at the same time, I’m swinging too much.”

It’s good Cabrera is getting the chases and swings and misses under control, though he still isn’t hitting. He is 3-for-27 (.111) during this 30-plate appearance strikeout-less streak, and Statcast calculates his expected batting average (based on exit velocity, launch angle, etc.) at only .229. There have been a few loud outs in there (video), but, by and large the improved swing decisions haven’t led to more damage. Cabrera still isn’t contributing.

The Yankees can’t do it right now given the injuries but I would be in favor of sending Cabrera to Triple-A Scranton for a little reset. He can go down there and continue his plate discipline work in a low stakes environment, and have some success at the plate and build confidence. Countless guys have temporarily gone back to the minors to figure things out. It’s not the end of the world.

For now, there are at least some signs Cabrera is moving in the right direction. He’s cut down on his chases and swings and misses significantly – again, no strikeouts in 30 plate appearances! – and swinging at the right pitches and getting the bat on the ball is more than half the battle. Hopefully the results follow soon. Cabrera’s been good defensively and has a chance to be a really good super utility guy. The bat just needs to catch up to the versatility.

Where’d the walks go?

Power and patience have been a hallmark of the Yankees basically since the dawn of time, yet this season they’re sporting a 8.2% walk rate (22nd in MLB), including a 4.7% walk rate in their last 13 games. It’s not just the injury replacements either. Look:

Maybe it’s unfair to lump Volpe in there. He’s got barely a month in the big leagues and he was never gonna sustain the 18% walk rate he had a few weeks ago. Even with few walks in his last 50 plate appearances, Volpe still has a 13.3% season walk rate, which is a top 25 mark in baseball and well above the 8.8% league average.

The other guys though? They’re the healthy veterans and LeMahieu and Rizzo in particular are not walking nearly as much as they have throughout their careers (they’ve both been 10%+ walk rate guys in recent years). At a time when the Yankees need every baserunner possible just to have a representative offense, they’ve stopped drawing walks.

Why this is happening, I do not know. It could be pitchers are so unintimidated by the offense that they’re comfortable pounding the zone. Pitchers have a 51.9% zone rate against the Yankees the last two weeks, higher than the 50.4% league average, so there might be some truth to this. The Yankees have seen a lot of strikes lately.

It could also be veteran hitters pressing given the lack of offense (classic “trying to do too much”), and expanding the zone. LeMahieu, Rizzo, and Torres are all running chase rates in line with their career norms the last two weeks, if not better than that, so I’m not sure there’s much to this. Maybe they expand in specific at-bats, but the overall numbers don’t bear it out. (As a team, the Yankees have the tenth lowest chase rate in baseball the last two weeks.)

This could also be a two-week blip. But, if it is a two-week blip, it’s a rather extreme two-week blip. The Yankees have drawn 21 walks in 13 games dating back to the start of the Blue Jays series. Here are their fewest walks in a 13-game span in the last five seasons:

You have to go back to 1991 for the last time the Yankees drew as few as 21 walks in a 13-game span (19 walks from June 12-25). That 1991 team was, uh, not good. So yeah, this sudden lack of walks (the Yankees had a 10.5% walk rate prior to these last 13 games) could be a two-week blip, and if it is, it is unlike any two-week blip the Yankees have had in the last three decades.

Whatever the reason, the Yankees have not walked much lately, and it is noticeable. The offense has a 4.7% walk rate and .262 OBP in the last 13 games. Give them a league average 8.8% walk rate in those 13 games, and it jumps to a .301 OBP. That’s not good, but it’s a heck of a lot better than a .262 OBP. Start taking walks again, guys. You need every baserunner you can get..

The plan with Peraza

Is there a plan with Oswald Peraza? He’s been on the bench the last two games and three of the last five, and has started only 10 of 17 games since being called up. Including last season, Peraza has started only 24 of his 48 games on the active roster. Feels like a top prospect should be playing more than that! This is the starting nine I’d like to see:

1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. 2B Gleyber Torres
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. DH DJ LeMahieu
5. LF Willie Calhoun
6. CF Harrison Bader
7. RF Jake Bauers
8. 3B Oswald Peraza
9. C Jose Trevino

The batting order can be whatever it needs to be, and maybe it’s Calhoun in right and Bauers in left, but those are the nine names. Rotate infielders through the DH spot, sprinkle in Cabrera now and then, and don’t force things with Aaron Hicks and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. They play too much as it is. I believe the lineup above is the best the Yankees can do with the available personnel.

(Bauers and Calhoun in the corner outfield spots would be a defensive nightmare, but the roster is what the roster is. I’d trade some outfield defense for more Peraza playing time. The Yankees say he’s part of the future, so let’s get this show on the road already.)

There is a stark contrast between the way the Yankees handle Peraza and the way they handle Volpe and even Cabrera. They’re in there every game (just about every game for Cabrera) and get to work through their struggles. Peraza is 6-for-32 (.188) this year, which is bad, though he hasn’t been given the same leash. He gets the inconsistent playing time, not Volpe (who stunk early) or Cabrera (who’s stunk all year). And it’s not a Boone thing. If the front office weren’t okay with Peraza sitting so often, he wouldn’t sit that often.

Peraza is apparently too good to trade and too good to “block” with a free agent shortstop, but also not good enough to play everyday even with half the lineup on the injured list. The Yankees do not have a great track record of finishing off the development of their top prospects at the MLB level, so forgive me for being a bit concerned. Donaldson’s injury was the opening the Yankees needed to play Peraza regularly, and they’ve passed it up. Shrug.

(Peraza went for x-rays on his ankle after stumbling into second base awkwardly on that stolen base attempt Wednesday. We’ll get an update on him Friday, though Boone indicated it doesn’t look like anything major. Who knows with how he downplays injuries though.)

Miscellany

Gerrit Cole was named the AL’s Pitcher of the Month for April and he had his worst start of the season Tuesday night against the Guardians: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 8 K. When that’s your worst start of the season, you’re doing alright at doing alright. Cole has a 1.35 ERA (2.17 FIP) in seven starts and 46.2 innings, and he’s yet to allow a home run. This is the first time he’s gone seven straight starts without a homer since an eight-start homerless streak in 2018 … Rizzo got thrown out (rather easily) trying to steal second base Tuesday night and he is 0-for-6 in his last six stolen base attempts dating back to last year, postseason included. I appreciated the effort, Tony, but can we not? … Two homers in two games for Calhoun, plus the game-tying single against Emmanuel Clase in the ninth inning Wednesday. Bauers also went deep Wednesday, in his first game back since crashing into the wall in Texas. We just lived through the Franchy Cordero experience, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves thinking these two are solutions, but props to them for their contributions. The Yankees have been waiting for someone to step up the last few weeks, and Bauers and especially Calhoun stepped up the last two nights … And finally, let’s play the Mystery Player game, shall we?

Any guesses? Mystery Reliever is Ian Hamilton. He’s been great. Between Hamilton and Jimmy Cordero, the Yankees have some dudes pitching in middle relief who should get a look in higher leverage situations. That would allow the Yankees to back off Clay Holmes a bit, and let him work through things in less important spots. How long it takes Boone to realize this, well, we’ll see.

2. Trivino has Tommy John surgery. The writing has been on the wall the last few weeks and now it’s official: Lou Trivino needs Tommy John surgery. He had it already, in fact. Wednesday in Los Angeles. The Yankees have now had a player on their Major League roster undergo Tommy John surgery every season since 2014. The streak is alive. Here’s the list:

Cut it close in 2019! Hicksie came through after the ALCS though. I have no idea whether other teams have similar streaks, but a third of big leaguer pitchers have had Tommy John surgery these days, so probably. The Rays seem to blow out 2-3 guys a year. They could probably go back a ways with their Tommy John surgery streak. I don’t care to research it.

“I know it’s disappointing but the big thing right now is to support him through this,” Aaron Boone said about Trivino. “Feel like we’re still going to have a chance to have a really good bullpen. So right now just in regards to Lou, it’s just feeling for the person. Hoping he gets through surgery well. And I know he’s gonna work his tail off to get back at some point next year.”

Trivino is obviously done for the season and he might be done as a Yankee. Next year is his final season of team control and the Yankees non-tendered Eovaldi and Kahnle under the same circumstances. They weren’t going to pay them to spend their last year of team control rehabbing only to have them go out into free agency after the season.

That said, the timing of Trivino’s surgery suggests he could return next year. These days Tommy John surgery comes with a 14-18 month rehab, and since he doesn’t have to get stretched out to start, Trivino figures to be closer to the 14-month end of that range. That would put his projected return sometime around next year’s All-Star break in the best case scenario.

Trivino is making $4.1M this year and he would get the same amount next year after not pitching this season. He won’t have his salary lowered in arbitration (no player ever has) but he wouldn’t get a raise either. Would the Yankees bet $4.1M on Trivino not having a setback and returning to make an impact late next year? Seems unlikely, but I guess we’ll find out eventually.

The Yankees got 66 innings out of Trivino and Frankie Montas last year, postseason included, and that might be all they get out of the trade if they non-tender Trivino and Montas can’t make it back this year. What a dud*. The Yankees would be in much better shape if you undid every trade they’ve made since July 2021. Clay Holmes and Jose Trevino don’t make up for the rest**.

* According to fWAR, the Yankees are actually winning the Montas/Trivino trade (+0.3 vs. -0.1), but yeah, what a stinker. As much as we (rightfully) complain about the Yankees’ trades with the Athletics, A’s fans must complain about their trades with the Yankees. Oakland has sent the Yankees a few of their best trade chips in recent years and they don’t have much to show for it.

** Considering the Yankees had to give up a top 100 prospect (Kevin Alcantara) to get the Cubs to pay Anthony Rizzo’s salary so they could stay under the luxury tax threshold, I’m okay calling that trade a dud. The Yankees were one-and-done in the Wild Card Game that year and could have signed Rizzo as a free agent that offseason anyway.

Trivino was seventh in relief innings (283.2) and tenth in relief appearances (284) from 2018-22, so he’s been durable throughout his career, but eventually the bill comes due. Pitchers get hurt and I’m comfortable chalking this up to shit happens. It’s too bad. I like Trivino and thought he would be a really nice middle relief option this year, and occasionally better than that.

Shit does happen but ultimately results matter. Trivino is yet another trade that didn’t work out, or, more accurately, he was part of a larger trade that didn’t work out. There have been way, way too many of those the last two years, and the result is the last place Island of Misfit Toys team we’ve seen on the field this season. Good luck with the rehab, Lou.

3. On the Rays series. The best, most optimistic thing you can say about the Yankees’ AL East hopes at this point is that they’ve used up their entire margin of error. Any wiggle room they had coming into the season is gone and they have to play close to flawless baseball to have any shot at a division title. There’s 130 games to go, so it’s doable, but it’s so very unlikely.

The reality is the Yankees are in last place in baseball’s toughest division and they have been (and continue to be) hammered by injuries. This 17-15 start has done real damage not just to their division title hopes, but also their postseason odds in general. FanGraphs has the Yankees’ AL East odds at 10.3%, down from 42.7% on Opening Day. Now here are the postseason odds:

Not great! Still better than 50/50, but not great. It feels like this team’s upside is the top Wild Card spot and home field advantage in the Wild Card Series, though this postseason format is so screwed up that the third Wild Card spot is more preferable because you’ll (likely) face the AL Central winner rather than the third best AL East team. I’m getting ahead of myself though.

The Yankees and Rays play three games in Tampa this weekend and four games in the Bronx next week (they play seven of their next 10 games against each other) and even though it’s only May, this might be the Yankees’ last chance to get back in the AL East race. The Rays could bury the Yankees these next two weekends. We’re talking 13+ games back in a deep division.

Tampa is 13-6 since starting the season 13-0 and some of those outrageous early numbers on offense are coming back to Earth. They’re still a very good team though, better in every facet of the game than the Yankees, especially with the Yankees so depleted by injuries. The Yankees have scored 126 runs in 32 games. The Rays scored their 126th run in their 19th game. Yeah.

This series is far more important to the Yankees than the Rays. Tampa has given themselves a nice cushion and the Yankees figure to spend the rest of the season playing catch up. The new schedule means fewer head-to-head games (13 instead of 19), and fewer head-to-head games makes catching up more difficult. These games are of paramount importance.

Nestor Cortes came down with strep throat and will miss the series*, so Jhony Brito has to start Friday night. The Yankees would have used Thursday’s off-day to skip Brito otherwise. Tough break there. Ultimately, either the offense will give the Yankees a chance or it won’t. Two or three runs a night (probably) won’t be enough to beat a Tampa team with a far, far deeper lineup.

* Cortes was with the Yankees on Wednesday. The entire team is gonna have strep throat in a day or two, isn’t it?

It’s still early enough in the season that keeping an eye on the AL East race isn’t unreasonable, though the Yankees aren’t even in Wild Card position right now, and there are four teams ahead of them in the division. They must start banking wins regardless of opponent. It just so happens they’re playing the division leader this weekend. One game at a time, etc. etc., but this weekend carries much more importance than the usual early May series.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Stephen asks: I know it’s way too early, but the White Sox have been awful so far. Say they decide to move some pieces in the next few months. How do they line up as a potential trade partner?

The White Sox have indeed been awful. They have the third worst record (10-22) and second worst run differential (-66) in baseball, fans are showing up to the ballpark wearing bags over their heads and chanting “Sell the team!”, and there are a ton of rumblings owner Jerry Reinsdorf will fire GM Rick Hahn soon. Soon as in before the draft and trade deadline in July.

I assume Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert, and Andrew Vaughn are off-limits considering they’re all in their mid-20s and under contract/team control long-term. That’s a core you can build around. The White Sox have several other players who could interest the Yankees though. I’m going to drop them into three buckets:

Bummer is very Yankees-like given his mid-90s sinker and history of solid strikeout rates (career 25.5%) and elite ground ball rates (careers 67.4%). He’s owed $3.75M this year, $5.5M next year, and then has club options for 2025 ($7.25M) and 2026 ($7.5M). Bummer strikes me as a reliever who’d interest the Yankees given his skills and affordable contract.

Hendriks has completed his treatment for Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma and will start a minor league rehab assignment this weekend. He’s expected to return in a few weeks. His $15M club option for next season becomes fully guaranteed upon a trade and that’s a hefty sum, but it is just one year, and Hendriks is a top tier closer. The Yankees could use someone exactly like him to stabilize the ninth inning, plus he’s super likable and easy to root for.

I don’t think the Yankees can win a bidding war for Cease. The asking price for the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up will be exorbitant, plus I’m sure a lot of teams will be interested. Moncada has been very up and down in his career, though the Yankees need a long-term third baseman, and maybe Chicago will take 50 cents on the dollar in exchange for eating the $29M they owe him in 2024 (if his $25M club option for 2025 is declined).

The money is the x-factor. Reinsdorf is cheap (ask Bulls fans) and dumping money may be the priority at the deadline. Maybe the White Sox would give you Bummer as a sweetener to take on Moncada’s money. Who knows! As bad as they are, Chicago has a few short and long-term pieces who could help the Yankees. Bummer and Hendriks are atop the list for me, assuming Cease is unattainable and Jiménez, Robert, and Vaughn are off-limits.

(Andrew Benintendi is hitting .275/.336/.321 (81 wRC+) at the moment. Imagine if the Yankees had given him the five-year, $75M contract and he was doing that in pinstripes? Oy vey.)

Michael asks: Mike, can you explain to me the fascination with Willie Calhoun and more so, the Yankees insistence on hitting him in the middle of the order.

According to the email and Statcast timestamps, Michael sent in this question five hours and 54 minutes before Calhoun hit his seventh inning go-ahead home run Tuesday night. You can all thank him for the reverse jinx that got Willie going.

Anyway, squint your eyes and there are some things to like about Calhoun. He was a multiple time top 100 prospect and he’s a lefty hitter with a history of high contact rates, good top end exit velocities, and performing in the minors. Even this year Calhoun is running a 6.8% swinging strike rate. He doesn’t swing and miss much and will occasionally put a charge into the ball.

Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about Calhoun back in 2018, the last time he was prospect eligible:

Calhoun is one of the most talented hitting prospects in the game, with an outstanding combination of barrel control and power. He has great rhythm and balance in the batter's box, quick hands and powerful hip rotation. He has good hand-eye coordination and a compact swing that stays on plane through the hitting zone for a long time. He has great plate coverage, with little problem handling premium velocity or barreling breaking pitches. He seldom swings and misses (and) could be a 35-plus home run threat in the big leagues. Calhoun's stature gives him a smaller strike zone to cover, and he doesn't expand it by chasing much.

Exciting! But that was also six years ago now, and Calhoun has almost 1,000 plate appearances in the big leagues and is a career .241/.299/.404 (84 wRC+) hitter. His best year was 2019, when he slashed .269/.323/.524 (110 wRC+) with 21 homers. We know now to be skeptical of guys who had career years in 2019. The ball was juiced to the gills that season.

The Yankees rolled the dice on a high contact lefty with some thump and prospect pedigree, and it was a minor league deal, so low risk. I understand why the Yankees targeted him. I don’t think they wanted to call Calhoun up as early as they did, but injuries kinda forced their hand. Calhoun has been good lately but not good overall (.250/.288/.396 and 88 wRC+), though at this point, might as well continue playing him and see whether these last two games are real.

(The problem with Calhoun is he’s a negative in the field and on the bases, so he has to hit and hit a lot to have value. Even a 110 wRC+ would be underwhelming given the rest of his game.)

As for hitting him in the middle of the order, I can’t explain that. One day Calhoun wasn’t good enough to be on the MLB roster and the next he was hitting fifth. Maybe the Yankees are using his lefty bat to break up all the righties? Or want his contact skills in the middle of the order to avoid rally killing strikeouts? The Yankees don’t have any great alternatives, but yeah, Calhoun being locked into the middle of the order is a head scratcher.

Paul asks: It feels like every HR the Yankees hit is a solo HR. Am I imagining this?

You are not. The Yankees’ last multi-run homer was a Gleyber Torres two-run shot against Brent Headrick in the last game of the Twins series at Target Field (video). The Yankees have hit eight homers in seven games since then and all eight were solo shots, and 28 of their 39 home runs this season have been solos (71.8%).

Here are the highest rates of solo home runs entering play Thursday:

1. Royals: 76.0%
2. Brewers: 75.8%
3. Nationals: 75.0%
4. Rays: 71.9%
5. Yankees: 71.8%

MLB average: 58.5%

30. Rangers: 39.5%

I’m not sure what to make of this. In terms of AVG and OBP, the Yankees have been better with men on base (.244/.323/.362) and with runners in scoring position (.255/.336/.357) than with the bases empty (.218/.280/.393), though the SLG hasn’t been there. Even before this streak of eight straight solo homers, the Yankees were at 64.5% for the season, so still more than average.

Only the Royals (.282 OBP) and Tigers (.292 OBP) get on base less frequently than the Yankees (.297 OBP) and that’s probably the culprit. They just don’t put many runners on base, and even when there are runners on base, their two best home run hitters (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton) are on the injured list. You’re not imagining things though. The Yankees hit a lot of solo home runs. It’s been over a week since their last multi-run homer.

Jon asks: I saw Andujar got called up by the Pirates, hit 3rd and homer twice. It made me think - I know he isn't particularly skilled at fielding either third base or left field, but (excluding DJ LeMahieu) would Andujar be better than the Yankees current options at 3B/LF?

Not at third base. LeMahieu’s pretty good at third, plus I’d rather let Oswald Peraza play there just to get him in the lineup. It’s frustrating Peraza has started only 10 of 17 games since being called up. How is playing him every single day not an organizational priority with Josh Donaldson hurt and playing time open? I don’t get it at all. But I digress.

In left field though, yeah, I’d absolutely take Miguel Andújar over the has-beens and never-wases the Yankees are running out there now. Here are the team's updated left field numbers:

Andújar was hitting .284/.364/.500 (119 wRC+) in Triple-A and he’s 4-for-12 (.333) with two home runs since being called up last weekend. The bar in left field is on the ground, so much so that 2020-22 Andújar would be an upgrade (71 wRC+). He’d give some of it back on defense, sure, but the Yankees are at the point where sacrificing defense for offense can’t be off the table.

And the thing is, even if Andujar doesn’t hit, I’d rather watch him not hit than watch Aaron Hicks or Isiah Kiner-Falefa or whoever else not hit. Andújar plays with energy and swagger, and at least offers the illusion of upside. I feel like I’m watching a ChatGT generated team when I watch the 2023 Yankees. They’re so lifeless. Give me Andújar in left field but not at third base.

Matt asks: Is Yoendrys Gomez a real baseball player? And why is he on the 40 man roster?

Based on the “have I seen him play in Spring Training?” rule, Gómez is more real than Ben Rortvedt. Gómez looked pretty good in camp too (video). I even wrote a quick blurb about him. Alas and alack, Gómez is hurt again. He’s dealing with a shoulder issue and has yet to pitch during the regular season. I do not know when he’ll return.

I ranked Gómez as the No. 23 prospect in the system before the season. This is his final minor league option year, though I believe he will qualify for a fourth option next year because he didn’t spend 90 days on active rosters last season. My math has him at 93 days on active rosters, but things are a bit fuzzy with rehab games. Gómez might have a fourth option for next year.

If he has a fourth option for next season, great. The Yankees get another bite at the apple. And if not, the Yankees are kinda out of luck, and will either have to trade Gómez or non-tender him and try to re-sign him to a minor league contract (or put him on the MLB roster). On talent alone, Gómez is the third or fourth best pitching prospect in the system. He just hasn’t been able to stay on the field.

Alex asks: How much was Brett Gardner negatively impacted by the shift/how much do you think he would have benefited from the new rules?

Gardner never got shifted all that much. In 2021, his final season, he was shifted in 30.7% of his plate appearances, which was both a career high and well south of the 52.6% league average for left-handed batters that year. His career splits are close to even:

(Those are AVG and SLG numbers on balls in play only. Gardner was a career .256 hitter once you factor in strikeouts, some of which happened with the defense shifted.)

Gardner became a little more pull happy later in his career, so maybe eliminating the shift would have helped him a bit, but probably not much. His thing was grounders and line drives to left field, and selling out to pull the ball in certain counts. He didn’t hit many ground balls or low line drives to the right side. I don’t think the new rules would have helped Gardner much, if at all.

Carlos asks: If you were to start a new RAB style patreon with a team other than the Yankees, what team (s) will you cover? Padres? Mets?

There’s a lack of Diamondbacks blogs out there and there’s some appeal in filling that void, but I would have to learn the organization almost from scratch, and that’s daunting. At this point in my life I am unwilling to take on that challenge and do all that work. Maybe once upon a time I would have jumped on it. Not now though.

I have to go with the Mets. I know them better than any non-Yankees team because they’re local and because almost everyone in my family is a Mets fan. RAB was a labor of love. We started it because we’re Yankees fans and we had things to say about the team. I’m not a Mets fan, but I at least have some connection to the team, and I can go see them whenever I want. Blogging about any topic has to be satisfying. Otherwise it’s just work.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)

Comments

Can someone talk to Bader about his mouthpiece tic / obsession? It’s really gross and hard to look at.

Jingling Baby

Oswaldo is due for some positive regression for what Mike mentioned and his Contact and when he does swing, he makes contact (up to 85% contact rate now). For the White Sox rentals, Grandal can relatively hit but his defensive metrics are so poor. Yankees prioritize catcher defense so don't think there's a fit there. Giolito is interesting though. He is solid at managing hard contact and limits walks. He started off poor but upped his changeup usage his last few starts (now at 21% usage). He has elite extension and his delivery is such where the Yankees could get more movement on his change-up. Fastball velo is slightly down by ~2 mph from peak-2019 which is a concern. Lastly, Yankees stole from the Giants with the Tauchmann for Wandy trade but I think the Giants beat the Yankees with Thairo Estrada. Dude has 1.4 fWAR this year. He has a 5.2 fWAR and earned <$3M since 2021. Donaldson has 3.5 fWAR and earned ~$64M since 2021. Yankees traded Thairo for cash considerations.

Vismay Pandia

Gardner was never a good base stealer though. He was fast sure but lacked the instincts to just go on the base paths. I am sure there would be some improvement on his game with the current conditions but I don’t think it would have turned him into Ricky Henderson or something like that.

The Original Drew

“Blogging about any topic has to be satisfying. Otherwise it’s just work.” I fear this summer may be a real test, Mike, but I’m glad we have you.

Zack

Selfishly, thank goodness Mike balked the family trend and ended up on the right side of NY

Dan G

What about the larger bases and pickoff rules? Gardy used to be good for 20+ steals a year, but by the end he was down to just 4. How much could the new rules have staved off the aging curve?

ajwhite98


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