October 1st, 2021: Final Weekend, Judge, Stanton, Severino, Cole, Loaisiga, Taillon, Voit, Mailbag

Self-promotion: I was on the Spin Rate podcast to talk Yankees and the AL Wild Card race (we recorded yesterday afternoon, so it’s a little outdated now), so check that out. A few weeks ago I noted the Yankees probably need to go at least 10-5 in their final 15 games to make the postseason, and they’ve gone 9-3 in the first 12 of those 15 games. The schedule hasn’t been in their favor but they’ve risen to the occasion. The Yankees are on pace to go 93-69 with only three games remaining. To today’s thoughts as Bronxie the Turtle makes the trip back across the border.

1. The final weekend. Winning out to finish the regular season was never all that realistic, but the Yankees went to Toronto and did what they had to do. They took two of three (and battled back admirably in the game they lost) and come home this weekend with a two-game lead and three to play. The updated Wild Card standings:

1. Yankees: 91-68 (+2.0 GB)
2. Red Sox: 89-70
3. Mariners: 89-70
4. Blue Jays: 88-71 (1.0 GB)

The stupid Mariners swept the stupid Athletics earlier this week, so the magic number to clinch a postseason spot is two, not one. That’s also the magic number to clinch home field advantage. Remember, the Yankees hold the tiebreaker against the Mariners but not the Blue Jays or Red Sox. They have to finish ahead of Boston and Toronto, but can settle for a tie with Seattle.

Although the Yankees had (and still have) the schedule disadvantage, they won series in Boston and Toronto while the Red Sox lost two of three to the Orioles and the Blue Jays split four games with the Twins last weekend. A favorable schedule is only good if you capitalize, and those two teams didn’t. Of course, they have more chances this weekend. The remaining schedules:

• Blue Jays: 3 games vs. Orioles
• Mariners: 3 games vs. Angels (Shohei Ohtani won’t start Sunday as scheduled)
• Red Sox: 3 games at Nationals
• Yankees: 3 games vs. Rays

Disadvantage Yankees. The Rays have already clinched the best record in the league, so while they have nothing to play for this weekend, the 28-man roster means their regulars have to play. Plus you know Tampa would love to keep the Yankees out of the postseason. They might hang a banner if they do. I know I’ve made that joke before but it’s kinda true.

Beat the Rays twice this weekend and the Yankees will host the Wild Card Game. A win tonight plus a Red Sox or Mariners loss will clinch a postseason spot but not necessarily the top Wild Card spot. Boston specifically must lose to clinch the top spot. It takes a few things going right but yes, the Yankees can clinch the top Wild Card spot as soon as tonight.

The No. 1 thing to root for this weekend is the Yankees beating the Rays twice, preferably tonight and tomorrow. That’s the No. 1 priority. No. 2 is the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Red Sox all finishing with the same record (they can all finish with anywhere from 89-91 wins) and tying for the second Wild Card spot. That would trigger a little tiebreaker mini-tournament in which:

• Game 1: Club A hosts Club B (loser eliminated)
• Game 2: Club C hosts Game 1 winner (loser eliminated)

The Club A, B, and C designations are based on head-to-head records and other things, and the Game 2 winner gets the second Wild Card spot. Not only would that little mini-tournament be a blast, it would also mean tired players and pitching staffs leading into the Wild Card Game at Yankee Stadium. Give me all the chaos*.

* The AL Wild Card Game is scheduled for Tuesday. MLB would have to push it back one day to accommodate the two tiebreakers, right? They couldn’t flip the schedule and play the NL Wild Card Game on Tuesday instead of Wednesday because teams have already lined up their pitching. That’s not fair to NL clubs. Not sure how this would work but I hope we find out.

The Yankees (eventually) pounded the Cy Young favorite last night and won five of six games against direct Wild Card competitors on the road the last six days. It was their most impressive stretch of the season. Their work is not done, the Rays won’t roll over this weekend, but the Yankees are sittin’ pretty. They’ve earned it and the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Red Sox haven’t.

2. Weekday thoughts. Welcome to October. Doesn’t it feel like it was just April? This season has somehow flown by and taken forever. The 2021 Yankees are nothing if not exhausting. Only three regular season games remaining, and hopefully many more postseason games to follow. A few thoughts on the last few days.

Two-Man Army

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are the Yankees’ best 1-2 punch since who, Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield? They’re better than A-Rod and Mark Teixeira in 2009. Robbie Cano and Curtis Granderson had some years together, though not quite this impactful. There’s some room for debate here. Clearly though, Judge and Stanton are a powerhouse duo. Since Aug. 1st:

• Judge: .300/.373/.610 (162 wRC+) with 18 homers in 56 games
• Stanton: .306/.364/.633 (167 wRC+) with 19 homers in 53 games

Stanton demolished the Red Sox last weekend and had that insane home run Tuesday night. It wasn’t even a bad pitch (video)! He just went down and golfed a changeup that was down at his ankles into the second deck. His home runs have been majestic and also clutch. And Stanton is out here making running catches in the outfield too (video). What a player.

Judge had an MVP game last night. He took the Cy Young front runner way deep twice (I can’t remember the last time I saw a ball hit over the WestJet sign), and also made a diving catch to save a run. Thanks to that game and series, Judge has taken over as the MLB leader in championship probability added. The leaderboard with three games to go:

1. Aaron Judge: +3.66
2. Bryce Harper: +3.59
3. Fernando Tatis Jr.: +3.21
4. Brandon Woodruff: +2.94
5. Ranger Suarez: +2.82

When I wrote about Judge’s MVP case earlier this week, he led the American League with +3.07 CPA, so that was a +0.59 CPA series in Toronto. Pretty massive. Stanton is 14th in MLB with +2.36 CPA, by the way. These two are on monster carry the team kinda runs.

“He’s a superstar in this league,” Anthony Rizzo told Bryan Hoch about Judge. “Him and G, what they’ve been doing, you sit back and have a front row seat every day. It’s fun to watch. Every day they’re ready to bring it, and we all feed off that energy.”

It’s unfair to call Judge and Stanton a two-man army. That was certainly the case earlier this year -- if they didn’t hit, the Yankees didn’t score -- but Gleyber Torres is hitting .316/.359/.462 (123 wRC+) since Aug. 1st, Gio Urshela has kinda righted the ship, Rizzo is driving in big runs, so on and so forth. Judge and Stanton are leading the way, but others are contributing too.

The Yankees put themselves on the verge of the postseason with 5-1 trip through Boston and Toronto. They did it because the bullpen has been outrageously good, because they’re getting contributions from the bottom of the lineup, and also because their two behemoth MVP talents are playing like MVPs. This is most dominant run by two Yankees in quite some time.

“I wish it was 6-0,” Judge told Hoch about the road trip. “We’ve still got a lot of work to do. The job’s not finished. We’ve got to keep going. Even if we can clinch tomorrow, you’ve still got two more at home, and we want that home-field advantage.”

Severino’s changeup

Luis Severino returned from Tommy John surgery with the best changeup he’s ever had. Aaron Boone mentioned Severino worked on the pitch during his rehab, and the changeup he’s throwing this year has roughly two more inches of drop and two more inches of run than his 2017-18 changeup, so there’s more fading action down and away from lefties.

Also, Severino is throwing the changeup more often. A little more than 25% of the time this year compared to 14% from 2017-18. He’s also throwing it to righties. From 2017-18, just under 10% of the pitches Severino threw to righties were changeups. This year it’s close to 30%. Look at this beauty he threw George Springer the other night (video link):

That’s a right-on-right changeup to great hitter in a 3-2 count leading off the seventh inning of a reasonably close game with the middle of the order coming up. That is a gutsy, gutsy pitch. And it was a great pitch too. Looked like a fastball down the middle out of Severino’s hand before slamming on the brakes and taking a right turn under the barrel.

Severino threw six changeups in his inning Tuesday and five in his inning Thursday (he faced Springer, Marcus Semien, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. both times). There were entire starts in which he didn’t throw six changeups from 2017-18. He’s not just throwing the changeup more either. He’s throwing it in big situations. Remember this one? Severino throws it with conviction.

The Yankees have been very pro-changeup this season. Gerrit Cole is throwing it more, Corey Kluber is throwing it more, Jonathan Loaisiga is throwing it more, and now Severino is throwing it more too. All these guys who didn’t use a changeup much in the past now use it regularly. The biggest changeup use increases from 2018-19 to 2020-21 (i.e. the pitching coach Matt Blake era):

1. Brewers: +5.0 percentage points (9.7% to 14.7%)
2. Yankees: +4.4 percentage points (8.7% to 13.1%)
3. Giants: +4.4 percentage points (10.3% to 14.7%)

No other team is over +3.7 percentage points. The Giants are one of the most well-run teams in the game -- they could finish with the best record in franchise history this season (including the New York years!) -- and the Brewers are a pitching powerhouse. Have been for a few years now. That’s good company.

It’s also not a coincidence the Yankees are there. That’s three smart teams ahead of the curve on the changeup. Elevated four-seamers were all the rage not too long ago. Now teams -- smart teams, anyway -- are gravitating toward changeups. And sinkers too. I think the emphasis is on pitches with that two-seam movement profile rather than velocity, but I’m not sure.

Looking ahead to next season, when he returns to the rotation, Severino’s improved changeup is very exciting. He was very good as a predominant fastball/slider reliever before getting hurt. The changeup would give him a third quality weapon, and he obviously trusts it. This isn’t just a show-me pitch. It’s a weapon Severino believes in. That’s exciting.

For now, Severino is in the bullpen because it was that or nothing given the calendar, and he’s been great so far. He’s given the Yankees a significant lift. Even in these short bursts, we can see a new version of Severino. He apparently has a cutter now, and he’s definitely improved his changeup like so many Yankees this year. It’s pretty great.

(I really hope the Toronto series isn’t an indication the Yankees are shifting Severino into a one-inning role. He’s capable of throwing two innings at a time, maybe even three if he keeps his pitch count in order. I understand protecting him after Tommy John surgery and two setbacks, but let’s keep him stretched out as a multi-inning weapon, mmmkay?)

Another Cole clunker

Gerrit Cole has had an unfortunate knack for poor starts in important games this season and it happened again Wednesday. With a chance to deliver the kill shot and effectively end Toronto’s season, Cole gave up five runs in six innings. Yes, a(nother) pop up that wasn’t caught led to the fifth run, but the other four were on Cole. The Blue Jays hit him very hard.

“I just was not quite sharp enough today. That’s just the bottom line,” Cole told Hoch after Wednesday’s start. “I think that I certainly showed the ability to make the pitches that we needed to over the course of the game. I just didn’t make enough of them.”

Cole allowed seven extra-base hits to the first 23 batters he faced Wednesday night after giving up seven extra-base hits to the first 165 batters he faced this season. The Blue Jays were all over his fastball and it wasn’t until the Yankees trailed 4-0 in the third inning that the adjustment was made to go heavy on secondary pitches. It was too little, too late at that point.

“They definitely came out swinging aggressively at the heater,” Kyle Higashioka, who is still Cole’s personal catcher for some reason, told Hoch. “The first two innings set the tone. After that, we reined it in, but by then, the main damage was pretty much done.”

Cole hasn’t looked like himself since returning from the hamstring issue four starts ago. His best start since returning required 108 pitches to labor through five innings against the Orioles, and he’s allowed 16 runs in 22.2 innings in those four starts. Opponents have hit .304/.360/.554 against him. In the biggest games of the year, the ace has come up small.

To me, it seems Cole has been unable to locate his secondaries since returning, particularly his slider. Too many are well out of the zone for easy takes. They’re not even tempting hitters. His slider “edge” rate (i.e. pitches on the corner or just off the plate per Statcast) has bottomed out at close to 30% in September after sitting closer to 45% most of the season.

Hitters don’t have to respect the breaking ball as much and they’re able to sit on the heater a bit more comfortably, and against a good lineup, you wind up with a game like Wednesday’s, when the Blue Jays hit Cole’s fastball like they knew it was coming. Cole getting through six innings is a testament to how good he is (most pitchers are lucky to make it through three innings after starting that poorly), but ultimately, it was a bad start.

I’m not sure whether Cole’s hamstring is still bothering him or whether this is just a pitcher who lost feel for his slider. It happens at times throughout the season. Whatever it is, it’s happening at the worst possible time. The Yankees need Cole to be a lockdown ace, it needs to be Win Day when he pitches, and that has not been the case the last four starts.

Cole’s next start will come with the season on the line. Either he starts Game 162 on short rest because it’s a win or go home situation, or he starts a Game 163 tiebreaker on normal rest, or he starts the Wild Card Game on extra rest. Normally, we’d take Cole on the mound in any of those games. Now he’s a bit of a question. It ain’t great.

“Physically, I think the velocity is in a good spot,” Cole told Hoch. “Things have rebounded well since a couple of those injury mishaps. I’m in a good enough spot to make enough good pitches. I’ve just got to make those pitches at the right times.”

Loaisiga returns

Welcome back, Jonathan Loaisiga. Johnny Lasagna missed 26 days with a shoulder issue and looked as good as new Wednesday. He touched 99 mph, he snapped off some nasty breaking balls, and he needed 12 pitches to mow through the top of the lineup. It was impossible to tell Loaisiga was coming off an injury and close to a four-week layoff.

“It’s definitely expected,” Loaisiga told Mark Sanchez when asked whether he expected to throw the ball as well as he did Wednesday. “Thank God I’ve had a really good season this year, and those have been situations I’ve been in.”

Although he was excellent and efficient, I had no trouble limiting Loaisiga to one inning. He has a long injury history and he just missed close to a month with a shoulder problem. The Yankees have several other capable arms in the bullpen and pushing Loaisiga hard in his first game back is asking for trouble. Clay Holmes just didn’t do the job Wednesday. So it goes.

The bullpen right now a) looks nothing like the bullpen we expected the Yankees to have this year, and b) is the best the bullpen has been all year. Severino and Mike King are throwing the snot out of the ball, Holmes and Wandy Peralta have been rock solid, and Loaisiga has been nails. The days of Zack Britton and Darren O’Day feel like a lifetime ago.

Loaisiga looked like Loaisiga in his first game back and it was a welcome sight. If the Yankees get to the postseason, they have the bullpen pieces to make a deep run. Will the offense and rotation cooperate? I hope so, but the bullpen has been overhauled on the fly and this is as deep and powerful a bullpen the Yankees have had in some time. There are no bad options.

Heaney optioned

To make room on the roster for Loaisiga, the Yankees optioned Andrew Heaney down to the minors. They didn’t designate him for assignment. Boone explained the Yankees worked out an arrangement with Heaney, who has enough service time to refuse the demotion, and he will go to Tampa and continue working out in case he’s needed later.

“He’s going back to Tampa and work on some things and stay with us,” Boone told Randy Miller. “I think he’s enjoyed being here and one thing he’s earned is the respect of the organization and the (clubhouse). He’s come over here and had his struggles. We’ve put him in different roles. He’s always taken the ball. He’s always been accountable and I think he’s open to continuing to work here and learn here.”

Saying the Yankees reached an “arrangement” with Heaney is too kind. These were his options:

• Go to the minors and stay on the 40-man roster, and remain eligible for the postseason roster and a postseason share. Also, you’ll be seen as a team player.
• Get designated for assignment five days before the end of the season, when no one will claim you on waivers or sign you as a free agent. And even if a team does pick you up, you won’t be postseason-eligible.

Heaney is making $6.75M this year and he gets paid no matter what, and he’s already banked enough service time to become a free agent this winter, so neither option would cost him. He could either start his offseason early, or stay with the Yankees and have a chance at a World Series title. Those were his options. He’s a competitor, so he picked the latter.

In all likelihood Heaney will never pitch for the Yankees again. He’ll be in Tampa in case injuries (or COVID) strike, but something would have to go really, really wrong for him to throw another pitch in pinstripes. Heaney hadn’t pitched in 11 days before being optioned and he allowed 29 runs in 35.2 innings as a Yankee. Yeesh. This one really didn’t work out.

3. The Taillon injury. Jameson Taillon’s return from his right ankle tendon injury lasted 2.1 innings and 38 pitches. I thought he looked pretty good before leaving with the injury (the run scored on a walk, a stolen base, and a ground ball single), but the ankle acted up again. Taillon was able to play yesterday, though everyone remains in wait and see mode.

“I’m not sure,” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin when asked whether Taillon could pitch again this season. “It’s tough to tell right now. Based on him (Tuesday) night, coming out, maybe not. Based on (Wednesday) and how it looks, at least it’s in play still.”

The Yankees have not put Taillon on the injured list yet because there’s a chance he could pitch this weekend, and they want to keep that door open. An injured list stint would end his regular season. If Taillon is done for the year, here’s how his numbers stack up against the American League averages for starting pitchers:

• ERA: 4.40 (AL SP average: 4.45)
• FIP: 4.46 (AL SP average: 4.36)
• DRA: 4.71 (AL SP average: 4.96 approx.)
• K%: 23.4% (AL SP average: 22.3%)
• BB%: 7.3% (AL SP average: 7.7%)
• GB%: 33.3% (AL SP average: 41.5%)
• HR/9: 1.53 (AL SP average: 1.37)

Almost exactly league average across the board. For a guy coming back from two lost seasons and a second Tommy John surgery, a league average-ish season in the AL East is a pretty good outcome in a vacuum. For a team that traded four prospects to get Taillon and has designs on the World Series, the Yankees probably hoped to get better than average-ish.

If this is the end of Taillon’s season, I’d feel terribly for him. He’s overcome a lot to make it back to the mound, he made every start the first five months, and he pitched well enough to be named AL Pitcher of the Month in July. Then he had the rug pulled out from under him right before the postseason. Not being able to pitch in October (potentially) must be killing him.

“It was a little bit surprising to me (the reaggravation). I felt I tested it and threw with intensity. I felt this was just a freak incident. I’m still not 100% sure how it happened,” Taillon told Martin. “Is it worth it to keep pushing through this? Can I make it worse? Definitely, our backs are against the wall with time.”

In the short-term, losing Taillon is not the end of the world. His rotation spot comes up again on Sunday, the last day of the season, and if that game is meaningful, Gerrit Cole will start on short rest. If the Yankees have already clinched and the game means nothing, then who cares who pitches. Start Domingo German or whoever. Not a big deal once they clinch.

In the medium-term, the Yankees would potentially have one fewer pitcher available in the postseason. Taillon’s injury all but guarantees Nestor Cortes would get a postseason rotation spot, at least in theory. There will be quick hooks and short leashes and all that in October. I imagine the postseason pitching staff will look something like this:

• Starters (4): Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Corey Kluber, Jordan Montgomery
• Relievers (9): Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Clay Holmes, Mike King, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lucas Luetge, Wandy Peralta, Joely Rodriguez, Luis Severino

Nine relievers might be overkill given the built-in off-days, but if the Yankees are going to have short leashes with their non-Cole starters, you’d rather have too many pitchers than not enough. We’ll see. Make and win the Wild Card Game first. Point is, the bullpen is so deep right now that the Yankees should (should) have enough capable pitchers to absorb losing Taillon.

In the long-term, Taillon was talking about offseason surgery even before Tuesday’s start, and it’s always possible the recovery will cut into Spring Training or even the start of next season. Taillon had a platelet-rich plasma injection in the ankle a few weeks ago and that didn’t take. The next logical step is surgery. At least it’s not his elbow again, I guess, but it still sucks.

For now, the Yankees and Taillon will see how the next few days play out, and hope his ankle improves enough that he can pitch this weekend and potentially in the postseason. That seems like a lot to ask given the nature of the injury and Tuesday’s exit, but there’s no harm in waiting. Losing pitching is never good, though the Yankees have the bodies to replace Taillon.

4. The Voit injury. There’s a chance Luke Voit has already played his final game as a Yankee. He was placed on the injured list yesterday* with left knee inflammation, the third time this season the knee has put him on the shelf. The season ends in three days, and while Voit could return in the postseason, the knee has had a tendency to sideline him for weeks, not days.

“He woke up pretty stiff today and he’s limping around pretty good today,” Aaron Boone told Ken Davidoff. “I think he just kind of aggravated it when he slammed on the brakes there. We think it’s kind of that bone bruise that can be a result of that surgery that’s kind of been off and on for him. So we’ll get more tests when we get back to New York and see what we’re dealing with.”

Voit suffered the injury running to first base following a strikeout Wednesday night, his first at-bat in a week, and he didn’t even have to run. The ball got away from the catcher but first base was occupied, so Voit was out automatically. I guess the catcher could have panicked and thrown the ball away, but eh. Voit got hurt doing something he didn’t even have to do. Brutal.

Anthony Rizzo was given the first base job -- Voit hit .281/.352/.563 (148 wRC+) in August, so it would be incorrect to say he lost the job -- and Brett Gardner was in the lineup over Voit these last few weeks, and Boone never bothered to use Voit even against lefties. The reigning MLB home run leader started four of his last 20 games on the active roster.

I’m not sure what the Yankees will do at first base next season -- I am dreading a potential Rizzo extension, which has “DJ LeMahieu extension but worse” written all over it -- but I’m pretty sure their plans do not include Voit. You don’t marginalize a dude who has been this productive the last few years in the middle of a postseason race if he’s in your long-term plans.

(If the Yankees are upset with Voit for saying he deserves to play after the Rizzo trade, then they need to get over themselves. That’s so stupid I find it implausible, and I apologize for making you spend your hard-earned money to read me acknowledging the possibility.)

Voit made $4.7M this year and his salary will jump into the $6M range next year, and soon-to-be 31-year-old righty hitting first basemen with bad defense and a bum knee have basically zero trade value. The Yankees supposedly had a Voit trade in place at the deadline, but that was before benching him, before his knee acted up again, and before telegraphing their plans.

I don’t think moving on from Voit is a bad thing, necessarily. Hell, I traded him as part of my Offseason Plan last winter. It would have been nice to not completely tank his value though, and to find a way to get him in the lineup more often during a postseason race. At this point Voit is a non-tender candidate more than a trade candidate. This is not the most sought after profile.

Hopefully Voit gets healthy soon and can return for the postseason, otherwise the Yankees’ best bench bat is Rougned Odor, and that is no bat at all (call up Miguel Andujar pls). If this is the end for Voit as a Yankee, then it’s the end of a pretty good three and a half years. His mistake was getting hurt this year and nothing more.

* The Yankees called up Albert Abreu to replace Voit. I don’t get it. They had 10 relievers in the bullpen already and are now rolling with a three-man bench (Odor, Kyle Higashioka, and Tyler Wade). What is going on?

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Anthony asks: In the beginning of the season, it was said the new ball would be like "adding five feet (of height) to every fence. What do you think? (Question 2) You seemed to think they might have snuck some old balls into the Field of Dreams game... do you think we might see that in the postseason?

I was mostly joking when I said MLB must’ve snuck a few 2020 balls into Iowa for the Field of Dreams Game a few weeks ago. The ball really flew that night though, didn’t it? Probably not a good thing that we’re wondering which baseball will show up in the postseason. In no other sport is the ball, the single most important piece of equipment, such an unknown year to year.

Let’s take a quick look at some batted ball distances. Here are the average distances on balls with 100-105 mph exit velocity in the 20-25 degree launch angle range. That’s a well-struck line drive with a chance to leave the yard. Here’s a recent Yankees example. Here are the average distances on those batted balls the last few years:

• 2017: 381 feet (.791 AVG and 2.373 SLG)
• 2018: 375 feet (.722 AVG and 2.057 SLG)
• 2019: 379 feet (.773 AVG and 2.335 SLG)
• 2020: 375 feet (.707 AVG and 1.947 SLG)
• 2021: 371 feet (.670 AVG and 1.848 SLG)

I chose this batted ball bucket because it is essentially the best possible contact, and look how different things are from even two years ago (let’s ignore 2020 because of the 60-game season weirdness). From the last full season, these balls have lost eight (!) feet of distance on average, as well as 103 points of batting average (!!) and 487 points of slugging (!!!). Geez.

We know MLB deadened the baseball this year, and while we can’t say with 100% certainty the new ball is to blame for this decline, what else could it be? We’ve selected similar batted balls in a narrow range across multiple years. Spin rates and pitch velocity and all that doesn’t matter once the ball leaves the bat. This is the effect of the new ball. The numbers don’t lie.

Two years ago we had the rocket ball during the regular season and something less than that in the postseason, so I can’t tell you which ball we’re getting this October. I hope it’s the rocket ball and all the Yankees who lost power this year suddenly get it back in the season’s most important month. That would be cool. Mostly, I just want a consistent baseball from year to year. Get it together, MLB.

Ben asks: If the last game of the season comes, and the Yankees have clinched a wild card spot, but not home field advantage, would you start Cole on short rest? What about if the Yankees have clinched a WC spot, but a tiebreaker game is still possible?

If there is any sort of win or go home game and Gerrit Cole is available to pitch (even on short rest), he should pitch. No questions asked. Game 162, Game 163 tiebreaker, Wild Card Game, whatever. Cole is the guy I want on the mound with the season on the line, even after his recent struggles. That’s a guy I’ll ride or die with.

Home field advantage isn’t quite as straightforward and it really depends on the situation. If the Yankees go into Game 162 just needing to win to clinch home field advantage, then I say go for it, and start Cole. If the Yankees need to win and they need the Nationals to beat the Red Sox or the Orioles to beat the Blue Jays, eh, I think I’d just save Cole for the Wild Card Game.

Anything can happen in a single game, blah blah blah yadda yadda yadda, but I want the Wild Card Game in the Bronx. Yankee Stadium is an intimidating place in the postseason, and the Yankees are built for their home ballpark (moreso now with Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo than they were earlier this year). The Yankees can win anywhere. I just want the game at home. (FYI: The Yankees have a .577 winning percentage at home and .568 on the road this year, so it's not a significant split.)

Start Cole in Game 162 and the Wild Card Game options are then Corey Kluber on normal rest or Nestor Cortes on short rest given the pitching schedule. I can’t see the Yankees going with Cortes on short rest. Kluber with a short leash would be the call. Worst case scenario is you lean on Mike King and Luis Severino to soak up innings following a quick hook.

Also, if Cole starts Game 162, he could then make two starts in the ALDS, potentially. He’d be able to start Games 2 and 5 on normal rest. If Cole has to start the Wild Card Game, then he would only be available for Game 3 of the ALDS. That wouldn’t be the reason I start Cole in Game 162, but it is something to consider. ALDS availability is a potential fringe benefit.

On paper, the drop off from Cole to Kluber is significant, larger than what you gain from being at home vs. on the road. That said, I think Yankee Stadium in the postseason brings added value, and the bullpen is so good and so deep right now that the drop off from Cole to Kluber & Friends isn’t that drastic. (Aaron Boone pulling the string is the big x-factor here.)

Win or go home game, start Cole, period. Win Game 162 to get home field advantage, then I’d start Cole too, and take my chances with Kluber & Friends in the Wild Card Game. Win Game 162 and need the Red Sox or Blue Jays to lose to get home field advantage, then I think I’d just stay the course and line Cole up for the Wild Card Game. Can’t trust the Orioles or Nationals.

Cory asks: Starting anyone else in the wild card game is just overthinking it, but given his recent struggles, how short is Cole’s leash in a potential wild card game?

We’ve seen Gerrit Cole go on long stretches of dominance in his two years as a Yankee, and even if he were in the middle of one of those stretches right now, I think the leash would still be short. It’s a win or go home game and you don’t have the luxury to wait around and hope he finds it. I hope the hook is as quick as it was for Luis Severino in the 2017 Wild Card Game.

Also, the bullpen now really works in the team’s favor. Pulling Cole or whoever early is easier to do when you have Mike King and Severino throwing the ball the way they gave. They could conceivably give you five innings combined, then you still have Chad Green and Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loaisiga and Wandy Peralta. The Yankees should have a short leash in the Wild Card Game no matter the starter.

Adam asks: The Yankees don’t currently have a third catcher on the 40-man roster. Will this prevent us from carrying one for the wild card game? I’d love for them to carry Brantly on the wild card roster. Higgy is going to start. Gary should pinch hit as soon as Cole leaves the game. I’d hate to be in a situation where Gary is the game tying or winning run and we can’t pinch run Wade or Vasquez for him in the late innings.

The Yankees carried 10 pitches on their 2017 and 2018 Wild Card Game rosters. That was the 25-man roster era, so maybe they carry 11 this year. Point is, you can really shrink your pitching staff in the Wild Card Game, and load up the bench. A third catcher makes sense. The Yankees carried three catchers in the 2018 Wild Card Game (Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine), but not 2017.

Brantly was in the organization on Aug. 31st, so he can be added to the postseason roster even though he was not on the MLB roster at the time. Drop Andrew Heaney (or put Jameson Taillon or Luke Voit on the 60-day injured list if their injuries are bad enough) and there’s your 40-man roster spot and third catcher. Then you can pinch-hit or pinch-run for Higashioka once Gerrit Cole exits the game, and then pinch-run for Sanchez in the late innings, if necessary.

The Wild Card Game is considered its own round, which is probably something MLB should fix, but for now teams can change their roster after the Wild Card Game and before the LDS. I see no reason not to carry a third catcher for that one single game. The Yankees will have the room on the bench and they have the 40-man flexibility. Do it.

Jonathan asks: So, looking ahead to the 2022 rotation: 1. Cole, 2. Taillon, 3. Severino, 4. JoMo, 5. Nestor/German/Gil/Schmidt, with Deivi the main depth piece. You'll say you can never have enough pitching, that Cashman should get more...then he won't or he will but that won't be enough. The question is, once those names aren't enough, is Ken Waldichuk going to be 2022's Nestor, dropping in to implausibly save the season?

My preference would be to go into 2022 with this rotation:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. ???
3. Jordan Montgomery
4. Jameson Taillon
5-7. Nestor Cortes, Domingo German, Luis Severino
7-9. Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt

The ??? spot would preferably go to a high-end outside addition. Max Scherzer would be ideal (put two years and $80M on the table and see what he says, Yankees) but I’m not going to count on it. Someone better and more reliable than Corey Kluber would be nice. Aim a little higher this winter, Yankees.

Severino is clearly the best option among the guys I’ve listed in the Nos. 5-7 spots, but he hasn’t been healthy, and you always need backup plans. It only looks like Cortes and German (and Gil and Garcia) are on the outside of the 2022 rotation looking in. You know how it goes. The Yankees will need a sixth, seventh, eighth, etc. etc. starter before long.

As for Waldichuk, I thought it was interesting Hayden Wesneski got the late season bump up to Triple-A over him. The Double-A season was over and it was Wesneski who moved up to get extra innings, not Waldichuk, even though Wesneski has thrown 15 more innings overall. That may indicate Waldichuk is behind Wesneski on the organization’s internal rankings.

Anyway, Waldichuk was good but not great in Double-A this season (4.20 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 79.1 innings), so I think he’s going back there to begin next year. A good month could get him to Triple-A, and once you’re there, you could be called up at any moment. Waldichuk will be Rule 5 Draft eligible next offseason, so the Yankees would be getting a head start on protecting him.

Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they didn’t expect this from Cortes. I think they brought him up as a swingman type they could later dump without worry, then Nestor pitched his way into a bigger role. Waldichuk is an actual prospect and less likely to get thrown to the wolves. 2022 might be too early for him to have a real impact. 2023 is the better bet.

Austin asks: Shouldn't MLB consider re-seeding based on records after the Wild Card play-in games? If the playoffs started today, San Francisco would play the winner of Los Angeles / St. Louis. LA has 17 more wins than ATL, the 3 seed. Surely SF would rather play ATL (or MIL) than the Dodgers in a NLDS. How is this a reward for having the best record in the league? You could argue in both leagues, you are better off being the 2 seed this year.

This season is an extreme outlier. The Dodgers will finish at least 13 games better than the Cardinals and it will be, by far, the biggest gap between Wild Card teams. The previous record gap was six games done a few times. This big a gap is unprecedented, but it often takes massive outliers to change the rules, so this may serve a purpose.

Yes, I think MLB should reseed teams after the Wild Card Game. I believe the league’s best team should get to face the worst team in the first round (you know what I mean, the LDS). Go with a simple 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 format. If MLB wants to continue with the rule that the Wild Card Game winner can not have home field advantage until the World Series, I’m fine with it. Continue to put a premium on winning the division. Otherwise, reseed.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)