January 8th, 2021: Lindor, Allen, Felix, Bell, Minor Leagues, Mailbag

The Yankees are scheduled to play their first Grapefruit League game in seven weeks and one day. That’s good news, right? I have my fingers crossed hoping Spring Training and the regular season will begin on time. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. The Francisco Lindor trade. In one fell swoop, Cleveland traded their franchise player and the Mets made the blockbuster move we’ve been waiting for them to make all offseason. Lindor and Carlos Carrasco went to Flushing in a 2-for-4 trade yesterday. It’s a done deal. Both teams announced the trade. The details:

• Mets get: RHP Carlos Carrasco, SS Francisco Lindor
• Cleveland gets: SS Andres Gimenez, OF Isaiah Greene, SS Amed Rosario, RHP Josh Wolf

Taking on Carrasco’s contract, which is very affordable for a normal team but too pricey for the cheapskates in Cleveland, to lower the prospect cost to get Lindor was an oh so obvious move. It was the centerpiece of my Offseason Plan and I've been going on about it since last April. You’re gonna give me this good pitcher and take lesser prospects for Lindor? Sign me up!

Once again, Cleveland took a quantity over quality package -- I gave up way too much to get Carrasco and Lindor in my Offseason Plan, which is usually the opposite of how these things go -- which is what they did in the Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger trades. Gimenez is talented but not a player you let stand in the way of getting Lindor. Rosario had fallen out of favor and the two prospects are good but not great. MLB.com ranked them ninth and tenth in New York’s system before the trade.

Bottom line, the Mets gave up nothing they’ll miss and upgraded their MLB roster significantly. I assume they’ll now make a strong push to extend Lindor -- they still have top shortstop prospect Ronny Mauricio in the system as a fallback option -- but even if he walks as a free agent next offseason, they’ll get a draft pick and recoup a prospect that way. Total no-brainer for the Mets. A trade they couldn’t refuse.

The Yankees equivalent to that trade package is something like Miguel Andujar (Rosario), Roansy Contreras (Wolf), Estevan Florial (Greene), and I guess Oswald Peraza (Gimenez)? The Yankees don’t have a good Gimenez equivalent and maybe that would’ve stood in the way of a trade. I refuse to believe that's a gap that couldn't be bridged though. (Mets president Sandy Alderson told Joel Sherman that Gimenez was “central to Cleveland’s interest in making a deal.”)

Anyway, a few thoughts on this. One, it’s time for the Yankees to stop being held hostage by DJ LeMahieu. More accurately, it’s time for the Yankees to stop holding themselves hostage with LeMahieu and get on with their offseason. Sherman reports the Yankees inquired about Lindor but backed away because they're committed to seeing things through with LeMahieu, so they didn’t even give themselves a chance to see whether something else could make sense. It’s LeMahieu or bust.

Waiting on LeMahieu has cost the Yankees a shot at a Yu Darvish salary dump, a Carrasco and Lindor salary dump, possibly Tomoyuki Sugano, and we can throw Lance Lynn in here too. Those are all players the Yankees should have been in on who will now play elsewhere in 2021. (I don’t think Blake Snell was a realistic option for the Yankees given the whole intradivision thing. Ditto Charlie Morton and his stated preference to play close to home.)

Given the slow moving free agent market, it made sense to remain patient with LeMahieu, but the hot stove is heating up, and too many good players are going to other teams. They're willing to pay him top of the market dollars. Either get LeMahieu signed soon or start exploring alternatives. The Yankees have one viable Major League middle infielder and their No. 2 starter is Jordan Montgomery. The free agent market is underwhelming and the best infielder and arguably the four best starters on the trade market have all been moved (most within the last two weeks), and none will play in the Bronx next year. That is too many missed opportunities. The time for patience has come and gone. It's time to get to work.

Two, the Yankees should call about Jose Ramirez. They need an infielder (Ramirez has played second base, though not regularly since 2017) and he’s a high-contact, high-impact switch-hitter who would be a really great consolation prize after missing out on Lindor. Ramirez’s contract is outrageously cheap …

• 2021: $9M
• 2022: $11M club option ($2M buyout)
• 2023: $13M club option (no buyout)
• Luxury tax hits: $5.2M in 2021, $9M in 2022, $13M in 2023

… so it’ll cost real prospects to get him (unless they do another quantity over quality trade, of course), but so be it. You can’t keep everyone and that’s what happens when you miss out on salary dump opportunities. Ramirez is great and fits what the Yankees need on the field and on the payroll. Hell, ask about Shane Bieber too. Once you’ve traded Lindor, might as well listen on everyone. I would happily put Jasson Dominguez on the table to get Bieber and Ramirez. Make the call. Worst that can happen is they say no.

Three, what I wrote last week about the shifting American League landscape is even more true now. Cleveland didn’t just trade Lindor and Carrasco, they traded them to the other league, so the American League talent pool has thinned out further. The Rays are cutting back, Cleveland is cutting back, the Athletics are cutting back, and the Astros and Twins have done nothing of note this offseason (that’ll change, I imagine). Get an infielder, get some pitching, and the Yankees can reassert themselves as the powerhouse team in the so-called Junior Circuit. Now they just have to actually do it.

Four and finally, this is a truly shameful moment for Cleveland. They just traded their franchise player (their most popular player since Jim Thome) for a bunch of stuff the other team didn’t want, and Zack Meisel says their payroll is down to $35M. $35M! That is straight up unacceptable for a Major League franchise in 2021, pandemic or no pandemic. As friend of the blog Drew Fairservice said, Cleveland is just the Rays with a better stadium.

Cleveland has not won a championship since 1948. They went to Game 7 of the World Series in 2016, and despite having two bona fide superstars in their prime and gobs of pitching, they’ve cut payroll every year since. If owner Paul Dolan (James’ cousin) is unwilling to invest in the team at that point, then I strongly suggest he sell the franchise for a billion-something dollars and let someone else try. Baseball fans deserve better.

2. The Greg Allen trade. The Yankees are no longer among the teams yet to add a player to their 40-man roster from outside the organization this offseason (you’re on the clock, Athletics and Cardinals). Earlier this week the Yankees acquired switch-hitting outfielder Greg Allen from the Padres. Lefty reliever James Reeves went the other way in the 1-for-1 trade, the Yankees announced.

Gonna start with the easy part: Reeves is a 27-year-old southpaw who spent 2017-19 bouncing between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. He had a 2.23 ERA (3.04 FIP) with 29.4% strikeouts in 169.2 innings those three years, and it’s a classic lefty specialist profile complete with a sweepy slider and funky low arm slot (video). Lefties have hit under .200 against him in his career.

At one point the Yankees liked Reeves enough to bring him to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee in 2017. He hasn’t been back as a non-roster invitee since though, and he’s been passed over in the last few Rule 5 Drafts. Reeves is pretty far down the depth chart, and because he’s a lefty matchup guy, his usefulness is limited in the three-batter minimum era.

With all due respect, Reeves is an inconsequential minor leaguer to give up, and the Yankees got Allen so cheap because San Diego designated him for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Ha-Seong Kim last week. Players in DFA limbo usually don’t fetch much in a trade. The Padres got Allen from Cleveland in the Mike Clevinger trade and they’ve moved on already.

Allen, 28 in March, is a speed and defense guy who’s hit .239/.298/.343 (69 wRC+) with eight home runs and 32 steals in 38 attempts in 618 big league plate appearances (221 games). You may remember his four-hit game against the Yankees two years ago. As a prospect, Allen’s calling card was his plate discipline and ability grind out at-bats, though those skills haven’t been as evident as he’s climbed the ladder (he’s had average swing and contact rates in MLB):

• High-A: 13.4 BB% and 12.1 K% (in 448 plate appearances)
• Double-A: 8.6 BB% and 17.2 K% (in 477 plate appearances)
• Triple-A: 9.0 BB% and 20.4 K% (in 431 plate appearances)
• MLB: 4.9 BB% and 20.9 K% (in 618 plate appearances)

The jumps from High-A to Double-A and Triple-A to MLB are considered as the biggest in the sport, and Allen’s walk and strikeout rates support that. I should note Allen has not been bad at Triple-A (.282/.376/.415 and 119 wRC+), it’s just that he didn’t walk as much as you’d like given his skill set, and he struck out more than you’d like too.

To date, Allen has been a switch-hitter in name only. He’s a career .251/.316/.372 (82 wRC+) hitter against righties and .200/.239/.252 (27 wRC+) against lefties. The good news: Allen has been better on the heavy side of the platoon. The bad news: Allen has still been bad on the heavy side of the platoon. His lefty swing has a bit of an uppercut (video link) …

… yet has consistently produced a higher than average ground ball rate (career 46.0% as a lefty). Ground balls aren’t necessarily bad given his speed, though there seems to be a disconnect between what his swing is trying to do and what it’s actually doing. Allen’s in-zone exit velocity as a lefty hitter has been good. Not great, but better than average on pitches in the strike zone.

Allen is a weapon on the bases and in the field -- his sprint speed (29.0 ft/s) and baserunning (+4.7 runs) border on elite and the stats like his defense (+4 DRS and +7 OAA) -- so the worse case scenario is he’s a pinch-running specialist and defensive replacement demon. Bring him to camp, make him and Mike Tauchman compete for a bench spot, and there you go.

There’s also a chance the Yankees believe Allen has untapped offensive potential and think they can help him unlock it. Maybe they will encourage him to stop switch-hitting and focus on the left side, maybe they have a plan to level out his swing, or maybe it’s something else entirely. Not every minor pickup is the next Gio Urshela, but maybe?

The Yankees like Allen enough that they traded a living, breathing player for him, which tells us they didn’t expect him to get to them on waivers. They wanted him enough to make a trade to make sure they got him. Because of that, I don’t think Allen is first up on the 40-man roster chopping block when a spot is needed for DJ LeMahieu or a pitcher or whatever (the 40-man is now full).

With his defense and baserunning, Allen doesn’t have to do much at the plate to justify a lineup spot. A league average bat makes him the No. 9 hitter and an above-average player overall. He is out of options, and I think the Yankees want to at least get him to Spring Training so they can see him up close. Heck, if Brett Gardner doesn’t return, there’s room for Allen and Tauchman on the bench.

The Yankees needed center field depth behind Aaron Hicks and Tauchman, and Allen and the recently signed Socrates Brito addressed that need. They still need a third catcher, another infielder depending on LeMahieu, and of course pitching. Now we’ll see whether Allen is just another random pickup who gets dumped at some point, or manages to get 400-something plate appearances in 2021.

3. Free agent target: Felix Hernandez. There are three tiers of free agent starting pitchers this offseason. There’s Trevor Bauer, the clear No. 1 pitcher. Then there’s the second tier guys like Jake Odorizzi and Masahiro Tanaka. The third tier is the reclamation project tier and almost everyone else fits in that tier. Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Jose Quintana, etc. etc.

King Felix is among those reclamation project starters and he’s something of a forgotten man this offseason. He signed a minor league deal with the Braves last year, then opted out of the season following the shutdown. Given all the pitching injuries Atlanta suffered, they probably could have used him, though I’ll never blame someone for not playing during a pandemic.

Hernandez, 35 in April, is likely to pitch next season and teams are showing interest in him, according to Jon Heyman. He’s almost certainly going to have to settle for a minor league deal -- when’s the last time a player signed a minor league deal, didn’t play that year, then got a guaranteed MLB deal the following year? -- which makes it a zero risk proposition.

Felix’s last three seasons with the Mariners were bad and littered with injuries, including multiple shoulder strains. The numbers real quick:

Yep, bad. Hernandez’s fastball was down into the upper-80s in 2019 and he threw it only a third of the time, and instead tried to fool hitters with his array of secondary pitches. The kitchen sink approach didn’t work. Felix was good prior to the shutdown last spring (13.2 IP, 13 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 14 K) and he made all the token comments about feeling good and all that.

“Physically, I feel 100%. I’m healthy. If I keep doing what I did today, I’m going to be in that spot," Hernandez told Mark Bowman following his first spring start on Feb. 22nd (two strikeouts in two scoreless innings). “Good results. I was throwing a lot of strikes. That’s the main thing. I feel really good. I’m really excited. I’m looking forward to another (start).”

Hernandez has already made a fortune, so it stands to reason he will prioritize winning -- the man has never pitched in the postseason! -- and opportunity with his next team. The Dodgers can offer a chance to win, but cracking that rotation will be difficult. The Orioles could promise a rotation spot all year, but they’re not going to win anything in 2021.

The Yankees can offer both. They’re a World Series contender and the rotation right now is the land of opportunity behind Gerrit Cole. Just to lay out the depth chart again:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. RHP Luis Severino (expected back at midseason)
3. LHP Jordan Montgomery
4. RHP Domingo German (missed 2020 with a domestic violence suspension)
5. RHP Deivi Garcia (promising but figures to have a workload limit in 2021)
6. RHP Clarke Schmidt (promising but figures to have a workload limit in 2021)
7. RHP Mike King

The Yankees could re-sign Tanaka and Hernandez would still have a good chance to crack the Opening Day rotation. Hernandez would be a hedge against German, and allow the Yankees to remain patient with Garcia and Schmidt. Felix gets a chance to win a rotation spot and a chance to win in general. The Yankees get a depth arm on a minor league deal. It works for both sides.

Remember when the Yankees signed Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in 2011? The situation is very similar. The rotation was thin and they needed pitching, and Colon and Garcia were looking to hang on and continue (revive, in Colon’s case) their careers. It’s the same mutually beneficial situation now. Few teams have what the Yankees can offer (chance to win a championship, rotation spots, etc.).

Of course, all signs point to Hernandez being very bad in 2021, because he was very bad from 2017-19, and he just sat out an entire year. It’s not often a player comes back from that and is a viable big leaguer. Perhaps the year away does Hernandez some good and the rest helps all the aches and pains that come with being a 34-year-old former workhorse go away. Would be cool.

Either way, the risk Hernandez will be unplayable is the reason he’ll get a minor league contract and not a big league deal. I say give him a minor league deal that allows him to opt out if he’s not on the MLB roster come Opening Day. It amounts to a Spring Training showcase. Bring him in and let him show what he can do in February and March, then evaluate. If it doesn’t work, walk away.

I have no expectations of Hernandez being good (or even serviceable) next season, but I am in no way opposed to giving him a Spring Training look. He’s always been fearless on the mound and he’s a veteran “knows how to pitch” guy, so maybe he figures something out and carves out a nice little second phase to close out his career a la CC Sabathia from 2016-19.

On top of that, Hernandez has a reputation for mentoring young pitchers -- Michael Pineda said Felix took him under his wing back in the day -- so having him around Garcia and Schmidt and Albert Abreu and the Luises (Gil and Medina) and others in Spring Training would be a nice side benefit. Braves pitchers were certainly excited to have him around last spring.

Under no circumstances should the Yankees sign Hernandez and consider him the solution to their rotation problems, and I don’t think they’d do that. Bring him in as nothing more than a roll of the dice and an upside play (upside being a relative term), and be ready to back out should things go wrong. I’m pro-Felix and I’d go into the deal with an open mind and no expectations.

4. The Josh Bell trade and the Yankees. The Pirates traded Josh Bell to the Nationals two weeks ago, two weeks after the Yankees were said to have interest in him. That interest was reported to be “intelligence gathering” more than anything, which makes sense. Bell was a talented buy low candidate, though he was not an obvious fit for the roster. So it goes.

Anyway, now that I’ve had more time to think about it, I think the Bell trade tells us two important things for the Yankees. First, it gives us an idea of Gary Sanchez’s trade value. He and Bell are similar players. Consider:

• They’re the same age (Bell is three months older).
• They’re both two years away from free agency and they’re both projected to make $5.5M or so through arbitration in 2021.
• They have similar career numbers (114 wRC+ vs. 117 wRC+) and had similarly poor 2020s (78 wRC+ vs 69 wRC+) after All-Star seasons in 2019.
• They’re both below-average defenders with no baserunning value, though Sanchez has the advantage of playing the far more premium position.

I don’t think the Yankees will trade Sanchez, though he could still be traded the same way any player without a no-trade clause could be traded at any moment. It could happen. Probably won’t, but one phone call can change everything. If it does happen, Bell gives us a pretty good approximation of Sanchez’s trade value.

And that trade value is, according to MLB.com, a 19-year-old rookie ball pitcher who “looks every bit the part of a future big league starter” (Eddy Yean) and a 26-year-old Triple-A pitcher who “should have no problem carving out a role as a No. 4 or 5 starter” as long as he refines his breaking ball (Wil Crowe). Can’t say that blows me away.

Should the Yankees look to trade Sanchez at some point soon -- his trade value changes once the season begins and he plays well or poorly, and his team control shrinks -- that’s the sort of return they’re looking at. A big league depth arm and a lower minors lottery ticket. Given where the Yankees are (World Series contenders) and what Sanchez has the potential to do (All-Star caliber hitter), it’s just not worth it right now.

And second, the Pirates once again targeted a lower minors prospect with considerable upside as the No. 1 piece when trading a core player. They received two such players in the Starling Marte trade (Brennan Malone and Liover Peguero) and now received another one in the Bell trade (Yean). Pirates GM Ben Cherington is prioritizing upside, not proximity to the big leagues.

So, want to trade for Joe Musgrove? Or Jameson Taillon or Adam Frazier? Teenagers in rookie ball are a pretty good place to begin a trade package based on Cherington’s recent history, and the Yankees have lots of teenagers in rookie ball with upside. Using MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects as a guide, these players fit the description:

1. OF Jasson Dominguez
10. SS Anthony Volpe
13. OF Kevin Alcantara
14. OF Everson Pereira (somehow still only 19)
20. SS Alex Vargas
22. C Antonio Gomez

SS Oswald Peraza (No. 4), OF Ryder Green (No. 29), and OF Anthony Garcia (No. 30) are all 20 years old, though they certainly fit the “young lower minors prospect with upside” profile the Pirates have been targeting even though they’re not teenagers like Malone, Peguero, and Yean.

If you’re the Yankees, and your World Series window is as open as it’s going to get, you have to be willing to trade 19-year-olds in the lower minors to get immediate MLB help. I can understand making Dominguez off-limits. The other guys? Trade ‘em. Trade ‘em all. Musgrove is an obvious target and if you can get him without sacrificing upper level prospects, how do you say no?

The Pirates don’t have many desirable (and realistically available, so not Ke'Bryan Hayes) players remaining on their roster. Musgrove, Taillon if you’re willing to roll the dice on his health, Frazier if you think he’s a bounceback candidate, Rich Rodriguez, and that’s about it. The Yankees could use literally all those players, and with Pittsburgh hoarding lower minors prospects, it should be easy to find a package that works for both sides.

5. Minor league season will be delayed. The great J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has issued a memo informing teams the start of the Double-A and Single-A seasons will be delayed. Specifically, those players will not be allowed to report to Spring Training until MLB and Triple-A players break camp, limiting the number of people at the complex during the pandemic.

Cooper notes this was expected in minor league circles and the news was met with relief more than concern, because a delayed season gives teams the best chance to play as many games as possible with fans in the stands, and minor league clubs rely heavily on gate revenue. Here are the details:

• Double-A and Single-A leagues would play full seasons that run from early May through early October rather than early April through early September.
• There is unlikely to be a minor league postseason in 2021. Instead, all teams would play more games. I guess the team with the league’s best record will be crowned champion?
• The minors may implement one set off-day for the entire league each week to cut down on travel. Six-game series, off-day, six-game series, off-day. Rinse, repeat.

A few things about this. One, Cooper notes this plan would allow the Triple-A season to begin on time in early April, though that is hardly set in stone. It’s possible MLB will begin the year with the alternate site model, then transition to a traditional Triple-A season. Delaying a full Triple-A season would be an issue because then you’re asking those players to play an extra month.

Either way, MLB teams would have to stash players they may use in the big leagues in Triple-A early in the season, even players who would normally be expected to start at a lower level. Estevan Florial is a good example. Ideally, he’d begin the season at Double-A. Because of the delayed season, he may have to start at Triple-A just so he’s available as a call-up candidate.

Two, if the Triple-A season does start on time in early April, wouldn’t they need a taxi squad? 26 MLB players and 26 Triple-A players won’t be enough. Injuries happen. Calling players up from Spring Training to fill the Triple-A roster as needed isn’t ideal for baseball reasons (those players are still in Spring Training mode) and pandemic reasons (you want to limit the number of players traveling between two sites).

Seems to me there would have to be a Triple-A taxi squad to ensure every team has enough players available. Is a five-player taxi squad enough? Eight? Ten? I dunno. Sticking with the alternate site model for a few weeks may make the most sense logistically, but if it’s possible to play games, do it. I say give Triple-A teams a 35-man roster for a few weeks. Problem solved. Too many players is better than not enough.

Three, one set off-day a week is a good idea and I think it should become permanent. That’s the schedule they use in Nippon Pro Baseball (every Monday is an off-day in Japan) and it reduces travel, which is a huge expense for minor league franchises, and more rest helps keep players healthy (in theory). Minor league teams regularly play five-game series already. Why not stretch it to six?

I suppose the downside is starting pitchers won’t grow accustomed to pitching every five days when they constantly get an extra day between starts, though I think the good (healthier players) outweighs the bad (limited experience starting every five days when they arrive in MLB). Besides, MLB is trending toward a six-man rotation anyway. Not sure this will be that big a deal.

Every team should play Friday, Saturday, and Sunday because those are peak attendance days, then the leagues can stagger their off-days the rest of the week. The Triple-A International League gets Monday off, the Double-A Eastern League gets Tuesday off, etc. That way minor league ball is played everyday. One off-day a week sounds good to me though. Let’s do this.

And four, a delayed minor league season would mean a delayed Arizona Fall League season. AzFL Opening Day was moved back from mid October to mid September a few years ago to avoid a long downtime after the minor league regular season ended, so that would have to be reversed. No biggie. (The AzFL is so far away that I wouldn’t worry about it at all right now.)

Delaying the Double-A and Single-A seasons is smart. Fewer people in Spring Training during the pandemic, more games with more attendance for minor league franchises, etc. That’s all worthwhile. MLB has to figure out the Triple-A (or alternate site) situation in April, which should not be that tough. If nothing else, at least MLB is making progress on a plan to play in 2021.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Tomoyuki Sugano is heading back to Japan. His signing deadline came and went with no deal yesterday. A report out of Japan indicates Sugano wanted Yusei Kikuchi money (four years and $56M) and held firm. The Yomiuri Giants reportedly gave him a four-year contract with an opt out after each year, allowing him to test free agency whenever he wants (Sugano will qualify for international free agency next offseason and won’t have to be posted). The Yankees were never really connected to Sugano this winter. I’m not surprised they didn’t sign him but I am surprised no MLB team signed him. I guess there’s just too much good pitching available in free agency. Yeah, that must be it … Ryne Stanek, who the Yankees had interest in a few weeks ago, signed a one-year deal worth $1.1M with the Astros, reports Joel Sherman. Would’ve liked him for the bullpen but I’m not broken up about it. There are an awful lot of relievers sitting in free agency at the moment … Two players I highlighted as possible Yankees targets signed one-year contracts recently: Ross Detwiler ($850,000 with Marlins) and Curt Casali ($1.5M with Giants). Definitely didn’t expect Detwiler to get an MLB deal. He signed minor league contracts each of the last five offseasons, so I guess Miami likes his new slider enough to give him a 40-man roster spot. Good for him. Casali on a minor league contract was a pipe dream. He’s flawed, no doubt, but he’s too competent at too premium a position to not get a 40-man spot. The Yankees need to find a third (and, frankly, a fourth and fifth) catcher at some point before Spring Training. The catching depth chart is awfully thin … And finally, earlier this week the NHL announced it has found sponsors for its four divisions: Scotia North Division, Honda West Division, Discover Central Division, and MassMutual East Division. MLB is probably mad as hell they didn’t think of it first. The Visa AL East and Cialis NL West can’t be too far behind. In all seriousness, I couldn’t care less about selling division sponsorships. This isn’t some sacred ground. Spring Training is officially Spring Training presented by Camping World. Two years ago the Nationals won the 2019 World Series on FOX presented by YouTube TV. No one except the league itself and the media entities obligated to refer to the divisions by their official names will actually call the divisions their official names. They’ll be the AL East and NL West to everyone else. Baseball is a for-profit business. If some company wants to give MLB money to slap their name a division, good for MLB. Sell the naming rights to the rosin bag for all I care.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Mat asks: I write my question after reading your 5th Jan email and to be honest I feel like the Yankees moves are obvious. Drive down the prices of DJLM, Tanaka and Gardner, sign them, trade for a 4/5th starter type and sign an SP on a minor league with an opt-out. Pessimistic? Yes. Cynical? Definitely. How disappointed would you be if this happened? Where would this currently rank us in terms of projection?

That offseason is completely plausible to me and it would be incredibly underwhelming. I guess the identity of the pitcher they trade for could change my opinion, though if you’re guaranteeing four or fifth starter production, then yeah, underwhelming. That’s the same team as last season, just a year older and with this new mystery starter replacing J.A. Happ.

There are reasons to believe the Yankees will be better next season even if they simply stand pat. Gary Sanchez can’t possibly be that bad again (right?). I’d bet against Gleyber Torres slugging .368 in a full season. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will hopefully combine to play more than 42.5% of possible games. Full seasons of Clint Frazier and Deivi Garcia, etc.

The Yankees played at an 89-win pace last year, and while I think they would have been better with time to work out the kinks in a full 162-game season (95 wins?), there comes a point where you are what your record says you are, and 89 wins is unequivocally bad for this group. That’s a disappointment. Here’s where FanGraphs projections have the current rosters:

1. Dodgers: +44.1 WAR
2. Padres: +43.7 WAR
3. Mets: +41.6 WAR (includes Carlos Carrasco and Francisco Lindor)
4. Yankees: +40.4 WAR
5. Astros: +38.9 WAR

The Dodgers and Padres are out in their own little world and I buy that. The projections have the Yankees in the next tier, which includes the White Sox and Twins in addition to the Mets and Astros. Are the Yankees really the fourth best team in baseball and the best team in the American League? I think the White Sox and Braves are ever so slightly ahead of them, but yeah, I can see it.

Add LeMahieu, Tanaka, Gardner, and our mystery back-end starter to the roster and you’re adding a good +6 WAR, I’d say. Could be as much as +12 WAR should things go really well, though +6 WAR is a reasonable estimate (projections are inherently conservative anyway). That would put the Yankees in the “best team in baseball” conversation based on the numbers above.

Of course, other teams are going to make additions as well -- the Astros and Twins have done basically nothing this winter and that won’t last, plus the Dodgers aren’t done -- so I wouldn’t get too excited thinking the Yankees are a LeMahieu and a Tanaka and a back-end starter away from being the best team in the game. Other teams are going through this same exercise.

The Rays are doing the Yankees a favor and cutting back, and the Yankees should be making moves designed not only to get them through a 162-game season, but to improve their chances of winning multiple short postseason series. Is this fourth or fifth starter we’re bringing in good enough to start in October? Happ wasn’t. The Yankees told us that with their actions.

Bringing the same team back the next year is a bad idea no matter how good the team. Complacency can set in and everyone’s a year older. The dynasty era Yankees had a new look every year. In 1998 they added Chuck Knoblauch and Hideki Irabu. In 1999 it was Roger Clemens. They didn't bring in anyone in 2000, and the result was the worst team of the dynasty, a team that had to be saved by David Justice. In 2001 it was Mike Mussina. Fresh faces are always needed.

I’m cool with bringing back LeMahieu and Tanaka and Gardner. I am not cool with those being the only moves of consequence, and the Yankees essentially repackaging the 2020 Yankees for 2021. I think that’s a recipe for a team that is at best as good as it was last year despite what the projections say. The Yankees need to do more than keep the band together.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)