January 1st, 2021: New Year’s Resolutions, Tanaka, Medina, Mailbag

Welcome to 2021. New year, new beginnings, still the same old Yankees. They’ll get around to make some moves this offseason eventually. Here is today’s mailbag heavy post (you folks are always good for content, plus I kinda wanted to milk the holidays a little longer).

1. New Year’s resolutions. It is Jan. 1st and that means today is the day we begin to enact the plans we’ve made to better ourselves this year, only to fail. No judgment here. I’ve botched more New Year’s resolutions than I could possibly count. The best advice I can give you: it’s okay. Life is hard and self-improvement can begin at any time. Just try your best.

Anyway, I learned a long time ago to never look gift content in the mouth, so on the first day of 2021, here are New Year’s resolutions for select Yankees (listed alphabetically).

Kyle Higashioka

Draw a walk! Higashioka has not drawn a regular season walk since Aug. 30th, 2018 (he did draw a walk in the ALDS Game 1 against the Rays). As I noted a few weeks ago, it’s not just a "he rarely plays" thing. The most plate appearances without a walk since Opening Day 2019:

1. Kyle Higashioka: 105
2. Luis Castillo: 66 (pitcher)
3. Jose Quintana: 63 (pitcher)
4. Miles Mikolas: 62 (pitcher)
5. Kenta Maeda, Steven Matz, Max Scherzer: 61 (pitchers)

The next position player on the list, Isaac Galloway, is at 54 plate appearances. Higashioka has a career 32.3% chase rate, which is a bit high but not unworkable. He just sees so many pitches in the zone. This past season 60.3% of the pitches Higashioka saw were in the zone, and it’s 55.1% for his career. The MLB average was 49.8% in 2020.

In those 105 plate appearances the last two years Higashioka saw only 11 three-ball counts, or 10.5%. The MLB average was 21.7% three-ball counts in 2020. Higashioka has power and will put a mistake in the seats, but pitchers seem willing to challenge him. Still, he’s going to run into a few three-ball counts along the way. It’s inevitable. Take that walk, Higgy. I believe in you.

Jordan Montgomery

Avoid the big inning. Montgomery had a 5.11 ERA in 2020, which is objectively bad. It was 16% worse than league average once adjusted for ballpark and all that. He did not go out and get blasted every five days, however. Montgomery had several good starts throughout the season, plus several others that started well before falling apart late.

This game is a pretty good encapsulation of the 2020 Jordan Montgomery experience. He threw five scoreless innings on only 58 pitches against a really good Braves lineup, then the sixth inning went fly out, single, single, homer on 11 pitches. A dynamite outing turned into the bare minimum quality start in the blink of an eye. Montgomery allowed seven home runs in 2020:

• Three three-run homers.
• Two two-run homers.
• Two solo homers.

Montgomery allowed 27 runs in 44 innings this past season and he was on the mound for one four-run inning, three three-run innings, and two two-run innings. That’s 17 runs in six innings, or 63% of his runs in 14% of his innings. The big inning (the multi-run homer, specifically) really put a damper on an otherwise solid season.

There are many reasons to be encouraged by Montgomery’s season. In his first full year back from Tommy John surgery he posted very good strikeout (24.4%) and walk (4.7%) rates, and his 84.4 mph average exit velocity allowed was third lowest among the 135 pitches who allowed at least 100 balls in play. Montgomery missed bats, limited walks, avoided hard contact, and his stuff was back to where it was pre-surgery. Now he just needs to avoid those big innings.

Gary Sanchez

Get back to using right field. Sanchez has always been a pull hitter. He had a 54.1% pull rate during his monster 2016 debut, and it was a 50.9% pull rate from 2017-19. The MLB average for right-handed hitters was a 41.2% pull rate this past season. Gary pulls the ball a lot. It’s what he does and he’s had a lot of success doing it (115 homers! career 117 wRC+!).

Sanchez’s pull rate in 2020: 57.6%. That was second highest in baseball among the 203 hitters with at least 150 plate appearances, and the highest among righty hitters (Kole Calhoun had a 59.0% pull rate). Pulling the ball is not automatically bad -- the shift has unfairly stigmatized pulling the ball -- but pulling the ball that much can be a problem. Gary's made himself easy to defend.

That’s why, despite ranking near the top of the league in exit velocity (91.8 mph) and hard hit rate (50.0%) this past season, Sanchez hit .147 and had a .193 expected batting average based on his batted ball trajectories and all that. When he’s at his best, Gary is still pulling the ball about 50% of the time, though he’s also taking the ball to center and right when necessary.

Defenses will not stop shifting on Sanchez. The “go the other way and they’ll stop shifting” thing is a fallacy. Defenders will still be positioned where the hitter is most likely to hit the ball, and Gary will always be a pull first hitter. There are hits available in center and right though, and Sanchez is so strong (and Yankee Stadium is so tiny) that he can mis-hit a ball and still hit it out.

I suppose the good news is Sanchez seems aware of this. He recently told Marly Rivera he focused on hitting the ball to right field late in the regular season, which helped him cut down on swings and misses …

… and then he went to the Tampa complex and winter ball to continue working on it. That’s great. I need to see it happen next year to believe in any improvement though. After the season he just had, I can’t give Gary the benefit of the doubt just because he says the right things, and I love the guy. I need to see it in action and for more than a few at-bats at the end of the season.

I am not a passed ball hysteric. Sanchez can lead the league in passed balls from now until the end of time for all I care as long as he hits like he did in 2017 and 2019 (he played through a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery in 2018, remember). He’s a game-changing hitter when right, and to be right, Gary needs to use the entire field more than he did in 2020.

Gleyber Torres

Avoid careless errors. Gleyber’s defense at short this past season was so frustrating because his problems were all tied up in botching routine plays. He doesn’t lack range, he has more than enough arm for the position, and his instincts are good. It’s just that every once in a while he does something like this (video link) …

… and it’s like dude, come on. Errors are going to happen but they have happened entirely too frequently with Torres in his young career. “I think for Gleyber, it’s about becoming excellent at the routine. Ultimately, that’s what separates really good shortstops from average to below average," Aaron Boone said during his end-of-season press conference (video link).

I am of the belief that Gleyber’s defensive issues are rooted in carelessness and not a lack of skill. Derek Jeter had limited range, especially late in his career, but he reliably made the routine play. Torres isn’t Miguel Andujar, who may not have the footwork or arm accuracy to ever play third base, or Clint Frazier, who is a corner outfielder because his routes aren’t good enough for center. Gleyber has the physical tools. He just needs to clean up the sloppiness.

Luke Voit

Get back to drawing walks. Among the 142 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in 2020, Voit had the 16th highest wRC+ (152) and the 107th highest walk rate (7.3%). He nearly doubled his homer rate while cutting his walk rate nearly in half:

• 2018-19: 18.8 PA/HR and 13.3 BB% (as a Yankee only)
• 2020: 10.6 PA/HR and 7.3 BB%

Give me the choice and I’d take 2020 Voit over 2018-19 Voit because you always trade walks (potential runs) for dingers (guaranteed runs). Voit’s power increase was the result of increased aggressiveness. He swung more often, at pitches both in and out of the zone, and that led to more homers and fewer walks. I mean, duh.

As a Yankee, there’s been a pretty obvious correlation between Voit’s offensive production and his swing rate. The more he swings, the more damage he does.

Is there a middle ground? Can Voit maintain the aggressiveness that helped him lead baseball in home runs this past season while mixing in enough patience to get back to, say, 10% walks? I’m not greedy, he doesn’t have to get back to 13.3% walks. 10% works. 7.3% though? We can do better than that, right? I think so. Voit’s a good enough hitter to figure it out.

Other less interesting Yankees New Year’s resolutions include stay healthy (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton), give up fewer homers (Gerrit Cole), cheat fastball (Mike Tauchman), and don’t give up a soul-crushing season-ending homer (Aroldis Chapman). And stop crying poor (ownership). No one wants to hear about the economic hardships of the NEW YORK YANKEES.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. For what it’s worth, a “source close to” Masahiro Tanaka told Randy Miller there’s a “good chance” Tanaka will either re-sign with the Yankees or return to the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan. Lotsa qualifiers there, though Jason Coskrey notes Tanaka said the chances he returns to Japan this offseason are "not zero" during a recent television appearance. I can totally buy this. Tanaka would definitely make more money in MLB, but he’s made so much money in his career already that it may not be the priority. Tanaka’s a prideful guy. If things don’t work out with the Yankees, I can absolutely see him going home to be near his family and play with the team he started his career with rather than go be a mercenary somewhere else. Bouncing around MLB and chasing every last dollar doesn’t seem like a thing Tanaka would do. If it’s truly Yankees or Japan, that would seem to bode well for a reunion. It means top dollar isn’t the priority and the Yankees certainly need the pitching. I suppose the big question is whether Tanaka is willing to wait until the DJ LeMahieu situation resolves to sign, because the Yankees say they aren't doing anything else until they know what's up with LeMahieu … I’m planning another full winter ball update soon, probably after the Venezuelan Winter League season ends in two weeks, but Luis Medina’s performance is worth a mini-update:: 16.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 BB, 32 K in four starts. Lordy. Medina was lights out to close out the 2019 season (45.2 IP, 29 H, 14 R, 9 ER, 15 BB, 63 K in eight starts) and he spent 2020 at the alternate site working on who knows what. I’ve been doing this long enough to know winter ball usually doesn’t mean anything, but damn if I’m not excited about Medina. The stuff has always been electric (video) and maybe he’s kinda sorta starting to figure it out? I so badly want to believe in these last 62.1 innings spread across 16 months in multiple countries with a pandemic mixed in.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Paul asks: Have the Yankees ever gone from the end of a season through to the end of a year without doing any MLB transactions before? How many other teams this year have done nothing?

I’m going to define “MLB transaction” as adding a player to the 40-man roster from outside the organization through a waiver claim, trade, or free agent signing. Rule 5 Draft picks don’t count (sorry, I don’t consider them a wholehearted effort to improve the roster) and neither do minor league contract signees who are added to the 40-man at a later date.

Signing Gerrit Cole was the last MLB transaction the Yankees made. For real. This was an unusual year but he’s the last player the Yankees brought in from outside the organization and immediately put on the 40-man roster. The Yankees, a team that fancies itself a World Series contender, has not made an MLB transaction in over a calendar year. Wild.

The last time the Yankees did not make an MLB transaction between the end of the season and New Years was 2011. They re-signed Freddy Garcia in November and Andruw Jones in December, but they didn’t bring in a new 40-man roster player until Jan. 2012, when they added Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda. The last time they did it prior to 2011 was 1991 (they made no moves prior to New Years, not even re-signings, then added Mike Gallego, Melido Perez, Mike Stanley, and Danny Tartabull in Jan. 1992).

Looking around the league, I count only three other teams that have not yet made an MLB transaction this offseason: Astros, Athletics, and Cardinals. The Diamondbacks and Cleveland barely avoid the list with one waiver claim (and nothing else) apiece. Even crummy rebuilding teams like the Tigers (Jose Urena) and Pirates (Wil Crowe and Michael Perez) have brought in new 40-man players. The Yankees will get around to it one day. Probably.

C.J. asks: I know the Yankees matched up well on a Darvish trade given that the return to Chicago consisted of high-upside but lower level players, of which the Yankees have plenty.  However, it took Darvish a while to adjust to pitching for the Cubs, so do you think the Yankees avoided him out of fear that he would struggle to adjust to another new setting or that he lacks the temperament to ever be able to have success in New York?

I think you’re overthinking it. Yu Darvish is a rock star in Japan -- he was the most popular athlete in the country during his heyday (he has his own museum!) -- and he came over with a ton of hype, and he’s lived up to it. He’s over 1,100 MLB innings with a 3.47 ERA (3.43 FIP) and a 29.9% strikeout rate. Chicago’s not some low pressure town either. Darvish damn near won a Cy Young there. He's shown he can handle whatever you throw at him.

The Yankees did not trade for Darvish because they’re cutting payroll and he’s owed $59M through 2023 ($21M luxury tax hit). They want to re-sign DJ LeMahieu, who is probably going to cost something like $21M against the luxury tax hit himself. With roughly $30M to spend under the $210M threshold, Darvish would mean no LeMahieu (and vice versa). I think any concerns about his ability to handle New York pale in comparison to the money.

Isaac asks (short version): What about taking on Gregory Polanco as part of a Joe Musgrove trade with the Pirates? MTPS, but would Abreu + Florial + Canaan Smith be a workable deal?

Polanco’s a weird one. His 2020 was similar to Gary Sanchez’s in that he hit the snot out of the ball (92.9 mph exit velocity and 52.6% hard-hit rate) but still finished with a pitiful .153/.214/.325 (42 wRC+) batting line and a 37.4% strikeout rate. He pulls the ball a bit too much and is a shiftable left-handed hitter, and he chases too many pitches out of the zone.

Shoulder and knee problems limited Polanco to 341 plate appearances the last two years. In 2018, his last healthy season, he hit .254/.340/.499 (123 wRC+) with 23 homers in 535 plate appearances. He turned 29 in September and he’s a former top prospect. The pedigree, batted ball data, and his 2018 make you want to believe in him as a change of scenery candidate.

Polanco is owed $11M in 2021 with a $3M buyout of his $12.5M club option for 2022, so it’s a $14M commitment. His luxury tax hit is only $7M though, which is a little more than what it will likely take to re-sign Brett Gardner ($5M?). I’d rather have Gardner than Polanco in 2021 -- Polanco is a poor defender and wouldn’t provide coverage in center -- and Polanco would probably rather stay in Pittsburgh because he’ll get guaranteed at-bats.

The question isn’t about a Polanco trade though. It’s about a Polanco and Musgrove trade. I’m a Musgrove fan -- I heard through the grapevine that the Rays are after him in the wake of the Blake Snell trade, which leads me to believe I’m barking up the right tree -- and if taking on Polanco’s money lowers the prospect cost for Musgrove, sure, go for it. There’s an open bench spot and injuries will probably create at-bats for him.

Let's run Isaac’s trade proposal through the Baseball Trade Values site:

We're a little short. Polanco’s contract is underwater but it’s only one more guaranteed year, and Musgrove is sneaky good with two years of control. The gap is $4.4M in surplus value and that’s a Yoendrys Gomez or T.J. Sikkema caliber prospect according to the site’s valuations. Or Mike Tauchman. Include Tauchman in the trade and re-sign Gardner. Boom, problem solved.

I am extremely ready for Clint Frazier to play everyday, and if the Yankees weren’t so dead set on cutting payroll that tying up $7M in Polanco would stand in the way of adding much-needed pitching, I’d be cool with taking him on to lower the prospect cost to get Musgrove. I think it makes more sense to go with Clint, pay full price for Musgrove, and use the $7M on more pitching.

Bob asks: Like all Yankee fans, I want DJ back in Pinstripes. However, if Cashman can't make the deal what about signing Eddie Rosario and Cesar Hernandez? They can both likely be had for the same, or less money, than DJ and for shorter terms. If would add more left-handed firepower and, with Rosario, give the team an outstanding hitting outfield with Judge, Stanton, Frazier and Rosario sharing LF, RF and DH.

Hernandez is a personal favorite and the only player I’d unquestionably have ahead of him on my “possible DJ LeMahieu replacements” list is Francisco Lindor. Hernandez hit .283/.355/.408 (108 wRC+) with Gold Glove defense this past season and that’s exactly who he is. That’s what he’s done for seven years now. Not a star, but rock solid, and not out of place on a contender.

Nearly everything I’ve written about Kyle Schwarber in recent weeks (like this) also applies to Rosario. The shape of their production is a little different -- Schwarber draws way more walks while Rosario strikes out less and hits for a higher average -- but the end result is below-average defense, lots of lefty homers, and offense that is roughly 15% better than league average.

Hernandez played on a one-year deal worth $6.25M this past season. The Twins non-tendered Rosario rather than pay him a projected $9.6M salary. You can probably get these two for $15M to $18M combined, give or take. In a world where the Yankees are unable to re-sign LeMahieu, Hernandez and Rosario would be a good way to deepen the roster and add lefty bats.

My only concern is that committing that much money to two role players (good role players, but role players nonetheless) would leave the Yankees short on money for pitching. I’m cool with the idea in a vacuum. Hernandez and Rosario are about as good a Plan B to LeMahieu as you can cobble together in free agency. I just wouldn't want them to lead to cheaping out on arms (if it's one or the other, Hernandez would make more sense than Rosario).

Julian asks: With the strong need for a third catcher, is a reunion with Austin Romine a possibility? Does he have a chance of getting a starting job somewhere else?

Poor Romine, man. 2020 was going to be a big year for him. He landed a job as a starter and his $4.1M salary was going to be nearly as much as he’d made in his entire career up to that point ($4.9M). Then the pandemic happened and knocked his salary down to $1.52M, less than he made in 2019 ($1.8M), and he hit .238/.259/.323 (55 wRC+) and lost playing time. Rough.

Looking over the depth charts, there are still a lot of teams that need catching, including a few that need a starter (Cardinals, Phillies, Rangers, Rockies, Tigers). J.T. Realmuto is going to sign somewhere eventually, and I’d bet the farm on Yadier Molina returning to St. Louis, so Romine’s potential landing spots as a starter are limited.

Plenty of teams still need backups though, and I think Romine has enough of a track record to get a guaranteed Major League deal and a 40-man roster spot. He’ll probably have to take a pay cut from $4.1M, but I don’t think he’s destined for a minor league contract after one bad 60-game season played in unusual circumstances. I hope not, anyway. For his sake.

The Yankees badly need a third catcher and there’s definitely some merit to bringing Romine back. He knows the organization and much of the pitching staff, so that familiarity is already in place. I don’t get the sense the Yankees want to spend money or commit a 40-man roster spot to another catcher though. I think they’re totally cool with Kyle Higashioka as the backup.

If the market is really bad and Romine has to take a minor league contract, sure, bring him in. He is a heck of a lot better than the typical third catcher you pick up on a minor league deal. I’d give him every opportunity to win the backup job in Spring Training too, though the Yankees may feel differently. I think Romine will get a MLB deal elsewhere, so I’d say the chances of a reunion are small. It would make sense though.

George asks: How many home runs would Aaron Judge hit in a full season in Japan?

Justin Perline ran the numbers in 2015 and found NPB hitters who made the jump to MLB saw their home run production more than cut in half in Year 1. They went from homers on 5.0% of batted balls in their final NPB season to 2.1% in their first MLB season. Hideki Matsui is one of the greatest Japanese sluggers ever and even he went from 12.5% homers per batted ball with the Yomiuri Giants in 2002 to 3.0% homers per batted ball with the Yankees in 2003.

If we use Perline’s numbers in reverse, Judge’s home run rate would more than double with a move to NPB. He wouldn’t necessarily hit double the home runs though, because he’d put fewer balls in play. Perline found NPB hitters maintain their strikeout rate in MLB -- the strikeout rate increase is only 0.01% -- but walk less often. Put Judge in NPB and he’d strike out as much as he does now, but he’d draw even more walks, and thus put fewer balls in play.

Here’s what we get when we run Judge’s 2020 rates backwards through Perline’s research:

A 19.9% walk rate is high but not unheard of. Juan Soto had 20.9% walk rate this past season and Mike Trout had a 20.1% walk rate in 2018. He’s the last player to walk at least 20% of the time while qualifying for the batting title in a full 162-game season. I definitely buy a 19.9% walk rate as doable for Judge given his patience and fearsome power, and the inferior pitching in Japan.

Anyway, give Judge 600 plate appearances and you’d expect only 292 balls in play given those strikeout and walk rates (51.4% combined!). 292 balls in play with a 30.7% homer rate equals 90 homers. That’s extreme, so let’s call it 20% rather than 30.7%. That gives us 58 homers. If Judge were to simply maintain his 13.0% homer rate, he’d hit 38 homers.

Wladimir Balentien set the NPB single-season record with 60 homers in 2013 and no one else has ever hit more than 55, a total Judge approached as a rookie against MLB pitching in 2017. He wouldn’t hit 90 homers because no one does that -- they’d straight up stop pitching to him if he were on that pace -- but 58 homers? That definitely seems within reach. I think peak Judge would challenge Balentien’s record (as long as he stays healthy).

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)