December 11th, 2020: Schwarber, Bell, Taillon, Rule 5 Draft, Reds, Gardner, Mailbag

The Yankees have made two major trades on Dec. 11th. On this date in 1959, the Yankees acquired Roger Maris (still the American League’s single-season home run king) from the Athletics for a package that included Hank Bauer and Don Larsen. And, on this date in 1975, the Yankees acquired Willie Randolph from the Pirates. Randolph, Doc Ellis, and Ken Brett for Doc Medich. I didn’t get to see Randolph’s prime but I reckon he would’ve been one of my all-time favorite players. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Winter Meetings rumblings. The virtual Winter Meetings are complete and while there were some transactions, the Winter Meetings were much more subdued than usual. Not as many rumors and not as many moves. Lame. The pandemic ruins everything. Let’s recap the latest Yankees-related hot stove nuggets.

Yankees interested in Schwarber

It took longer than I expected but we have our first real “the Yankees are interested in Kyle Schwarber” rumor. It comes from Bruce Levine, who says Joe Maddon’s Angels and the Blue Jays are also in the mix. I said all I have to say about Schwarber last week, so I’ll refer you to that. This won’t be the last time we hear the Yankees connected to Schwarber. Far from it.

Yankees have talked Bell, Taillon

Now this is a fun rumor. The Yankees and Pirates have discussed Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon, reports Jason Mackey, who adds it’s unclear how serious talks are at the moment. Both players fit the “buy low” profile and we know how much the Yankees love buy low players. The Pirates are early in their rebuild and figure to listen on everyone.

I mused about a Bell trade last offseason and wow, good thing the Yankees steered clear. He had a disaster 2020 (.226/.305/.364 and 78 wRC+) and basically stopped hitting at the 2019 All-Star break. Bell is only 28 though, and he’s a switch-hitting exit velocity monster. The raw talent is exciting even though the exit velocity didn’t turn into results this year:

Bell is a first baseman and not a good one (he also can’t throw), so he’s really a DH. There’s not an obvious positional fit, though Giancarlo Stanton is no stranger to the injured list, and Bell is a talented player. If you can buy low on a guy who slugged 37 homers a year ago, you do it, and you figure out where he fits later*. Bell is under team control through 2022.

* The other option is acquiring Bell and flipping Luke Voit (or Bell!) for pitching. That’s complicated and the Yankees would need to have a deal for pitching lined up before pulling the trigger on a Bell trade, right? Not sure you could do the first half of that maneuver without already knowing what the other half will be.

Taillon has not pitched since May 2019 because of his second Tommy John surgery, and the second elbow reconstruction carries much more risk than the first. He’s completed his rehab -- Taillon’s been posting workout videos on social media for weeks -- and is on track to be ready for Spring Training. He’s expected to be in the Opening Day rotation.

In 2018, his last healthy season, Taillon had a 3.20 ERA (3.46 FIP) with 22.8% strikeouts, 5.8% walks, and 46.2% grounders. That was when the Pirates were in their “everyone throw sinkers” phase. Taillon has (or at least had prior to the second Tommy John surgery) the velocity and spin rates that suggest he can succeed as an elevated four-seamer guy.

Taillon, 29 and with two years of control, is a thoughtful guy who is heavy into data and analytics, so he’d fit right in with the Yankees. Gerrit Cole was his rotation-mate in 2016 and 2017, so the Yankees could pick Cole’s brain to see what kinda teammate Taillon (and Bell) is and all that. He seems like a cool guy. I doubt there’s anything to worry about there.

I answered a mailbag question about Taillon in October and what I wrote then still stands. He shouldn’t be the pitching addition -- the Yankees couldn’t trade for Taillon and consider their rotation solved -- and it would have to be a buy low situation. You can’t pay full freight for a guy coming off his second Tommy John surgery. There’s way too much risk.

If you’re the Pirates, and you’ve spent the last 20 months or so rehabbing Taillon, why sell low on him now? Why not take him into the season, see what he looks like with a healthy elbow, and hope he rebuilds value so you can get a better package at the trade deadline? I like the idea of getting Taillon for pennies on the dollar. Bell is less appealing to me, but still worth exploring.

Yankees “barely engaged” in pitching market

According to Andy Martino, the Yankees are “barely engaged” in the pitching market, a report Joel Sherman backs up by saying the Yankees have “surprised agents by how docile they have been on the starting pitching front.” Given the snail’s pace of free agency, it seems most teams are “barely engaged” on anything right now.

The Yankees are reportedly waiting for the DJ LeMahieu situation to resolve before moving on to other things, though I doubt that’s literal. There wouldn’t be Schwarber and Bell/Taillon rumors otherwise. More likely, they’re not willing to commit to anything before knowing where LeMahieu is heading. I’m sure they’re kicking tires in the meantime.

All I have to add about the pitching search is the Yankees need to do more than re-sign or replace Masahiro Tanaka. The rotation is scary thin. Hell, they need to do more than re-sign or replace Tanaka and LeMahieu. Re-sign those two and the Yankees are right back where they started in 2020, only with a roster that’s a year older.

2. Rule 5 Draft recap. The 2020 Rule 5 Draft is in the books and 18 players were selected in the Major League phase, which is a typical number. I was wrong about clubs going Rule 5 Draft crazy as they search for inexpensive talent amid the pandemic. C'est la vie.

The Yankees did not make a pick in the Major League phase for the tenth consecutive offseason. They last made a Rule 5 Pick in 2011 (Cesar Cabral and Brad Meyers). The Yankees did lose a player for the sixth straight Rule 5 Draft, however. Let’s recap the madness (here are all the picks).

Yankees lose Holder, Stephan, Whitlock

The Yankees lost multiple players in the Rule 5 Draft for the first time since 2017, when they lost four players (Nestor Cortes, Mike Ford, Anyelo Gomez, and Jose Mesa Jr., all of whom were returned). Their three losses:

• IF Kyle Holder to Phillies
• RHP Trevor Stephan to Cleveland
• RHP Garrett Whitlock to Red Sox

I mentioned Stephan and Whitlock as candidates to be selected earlier this week. The Red Sox are really bad and have no pitching, so there’s a better chance than not they’ll keep Whitlock all year. He’ll throw three scoreless innings in a random game against the Yankees at some point and everyone will say they should've kept him. Take it to the bank.

“We knew we were going to lose him,” someone with the Yankees told Chad Jennings (subs. req'd). “... The biggest thing that helps him possibly stick is having the potential of MLB-average control or even above-average control. Should be a guy that can build trust to throw strikes. Not a big stuff guy that walks that farm, but (he can) get strikeouts.”

Stephan is Cleveland’s first Rule 5 Draft pick since 2016, which may be an indication they really like him. They develop pitching better than anyone and Stephan has the velocity, spin rates, and deception teams crave. This one has a better chance to bite the Yankees and make them look bad than Whitlock, I think, and I say that just because Cleveland is so good at developing arms.

Holder went unselected in the 2018 and 2019 Rule 5 Drafts, spent the summer playing glorified sandlot games at the alternate site, then was picked in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. Go figure. Joe Girardi may’ve had a hand in the Phillies taking Holder, though Holder appeared in all of one Grapefruit League game during Girardi’s tenure, so it’s not like he’s seen him play that much.

The Yankees drafted Holder with the compensation pick they received when David Robertson signed with the White Sox. In 2019, the 26-year-old authored a .265/.336/.405 (119 wRC+) line in 112 Double-A games and it was his by far his best season. He’s an excellent defender -- his glove has been MLB ready for years now -- but there’s not much bat here. I can’t imagine the Phillies are going to play him everyday. Holder figures to be an all-glove/no-bat utility infielder.

“Kyle is a natural shortstop and a plus defender at the position, and he has shown good progress offensively,” Phillies pro scouting director Mike Ondo said in a statement. “We’re excited to welcome him to our organization.”

The notable player the Yankees did not lose is righty Addison Russ. The stats and year-old scouting reports made him look like prime Rule 5 Draft fodder, but his velocity was down at the alternate site, and no team took the plunge. Clubs overlook guys all the time -- Ivan Nova went unpicked in the Rule 5 Draft one year -- but a 26-year-old with Double-A experience going unselected is usually an indication there’s not much there.

Yankees lose four in minor league phase

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft works differently than the Major League phase. Players selected in the minor league phase join their new team permanently. There are no roster hoops to jump through. Players have to be on a certain reserve list (Triple-A, Double-A, etc.) based on their experience level, and players not on the appropriate reserve list are eligible to be selected. The Yankees lost four players in the minor league phase:

• C Gustavo Campero to Padres
• RHP Kaleb Ort to Red Sox
• OF Ben Ruta to Padres
• RHP Matt Wivinis to Rangers

Campero, 23, had some prospect shine after hitting .304/.444/.545 (173 wRC+) with more walks (27) than strikeouts (23) in 36 rookie ball games in 2017, but he never repeated that, nor has he made it out of rookie ball. Ruta, 26, has reached Double-A and is a ‘tweener who doesn’t have enough bat for a corner or enough glove for center. The change of scenery can’t hurt.

The Yankees signed the 27-year-old Wivinis as an undrafted free agent a few years ago and they liked him enough at one point that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League in 2018. He’s a spin rate guy who has done very well in Single-A and not so well in Double-A. If you’re Texas and you’re going nowhere fast, there are worse fliers to take in the minor league Rule 5 Draft.

Ort, 29 in February, originally signed with the Yankees out of an independent league in 2017 and he’s a hard-throwing reliever. He reached Triple-A last year, didn’t pitch all that well (4.05 ERA and 3.68 FIP with 51/24 K/BB in 33.1 innings), but has enough arm talent to be worth a look. There was a chance, albeit a small one, Ort would get picked in the Major League phase. The Red Sox get him in the minor league phase instead.

Of the four players the Yankees lost in the minor league phase, Ort is the most likely to reach the big leagues one day, and I don’t think it’s close either. He could go up and down a few times as a depth arm. Campero is a low minors catcher and Wivinis and Ruta are basically Double-A lottery tickets. They’ll get fresh starts in new organizations.

Yankees take Krook, McClain in minor league phase

The Yankees made two selections in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft and each is interesting in his own way. The first, lefty Matt Krook, was the 35th overall pick in the 2013 draft, but he declined to sign with the Marlins and spent three injury-riddled years at Oregon. The Giants took him in the fourth round in 2016, then sent him to the Rays in the Evan Longoria trade.

Last season Krook, 26, had a 4.50 ERA (4.10 FIP) with 23.1% strikeouts and 14.2% walks in 50 Double-A innings. Baseball America (subs. req’d) included him in their Rule 5 Draft preview earlier this week, so he was on the radar for the Major League phase. Here’s a snippet of their write-up:

Krook’s biggest appeal is a nasty, mid-90s sinker, which he’s used to induce ground ball rates of 60% or better, as well as a career strikeout mark of 10.3 per nine innings. He struggled with command and control throughout his collegiate career, and has averaged 6.4 walks per nine innings as a professional as well.

Prior to 2019, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Krook the No. 29 prospect in a stacked Tampa Bay farm system, and their scouting report at the time said “his sinker has movement that draws comparisons to (Zack) Britton.” They add his slider and changeup are promising, but the sinker is his moneymaker. Here’s some video.

Here's what Rays vice president Carlos Rodriguez told Marc Topkin about Krook:

“He still has really good components from the left side, still a really good slider, a player who’s still very much in the mix and we expect him to pitch for a really long time going forward,” Rodriguez said.

“Sometimes in this game the way that things happen is a player may not end up debuting with you or maybe contributing at the major-league level for you, but it all ends up coming around full circle. With him, he certainly served his purpose.

“I thought it was a really good piece as a part of that (Longoria) deal, and unfortunately he wasn’t able to impact our major-league team this year,” Rodriguez continued. “But I’m happy that he had enough value that others thought pretty highly of him as well and happy that he has an opportunity to continue his career.”

The second minor league Rule 5 Draft pick, righty Reggie McClain, has some big league time. He appeared in 19 games with the Mariners and Phillies the last two years and I first became aware of him last year, when I was watching this random game late one night, and McClain threw three shutout low-leverage innings. Here’s video. You may remember him doing this to Gio Urshela in Spring Training (GIF via Rob Friedman):

In his brief time as a big leaguer McClain, 28, has worked with a low-to-mid-90s sinker and a low-to-mid-80s slider. There’s nothing special about the spin rates or swing and miss rates or anything, but it’s also a small sample. In those 19 MLB games McClain has allowed 20 runs in 26.1 innings with more walks (16) than strikeouts (13).

The Phillies outrighted McClain off the 40-man roster in September, so the Yankees could have claimed him on waivers then, but he would’ve been on the 40-man roster. Now they have him as a non-40-man roster guy with no Rule 5 Draft roster rules to worry about. Given his MLB time, I would bet on McClain getting an invite to Spring Training in a few weeks.

Two minor league Rule 5 Draft picks and two different types of players. Krook is a former well-regarded prospect with a possible carrying pitch in his sinker. He’s a project with some upside who cost nothing to acquire. McClain is more of a non-roster invitee type. An up-and-down player who might be a useful depth option at some point.

3. The Reds as trade partners. The Reds came into the offseason a move or three away from being favored to win the hot garbage that is the NL Central, and yet they’ve spent the last few weeks cutting costs. Archie Bradley and Brian Goodwin were non-tendered, Raisel Iglesias was salary dumped, and it seems like only a matter of time until Sonny Gray is traded away.

A reunion with Gray is almost certainly not happening. There are other Reds who could interest the Yankees, however, and since Cincinnati seems to be in the “getting worse” mood, let’s go through their roster and see whether there are any fits. I’m going to focus on players making real money since those are the guys the Reds are moving.

C Tucker Barnhart

The Yankees badly need catching depth, and while I don’t think they’re eager to replace Kyle Higashioka, it should at least be a consideration. If you believe the stats, Barnhart has been one of the top defensive catchers in baseball the last two years. He was closer to league average earlier in his career. The numbers:

• 2015-18: +5 DRS and -25.7 runs framing (44.4% called strike rate)
• 2019-20: +14 DRS and +5.7 runs framing (49.4% called strike rate)

Barnhart, 30 next month, is a lefty hitter but not much of an offensive threat. He posted a wRC+ in the 80-90 range every year from 2015-20, and pretty much all he’ll do is take walks (career 10.0%). The contact quality (exit velocity, etc.) isn’t good and he’s not a fly ball/pull lefty hitter, someone you could envision taking advantage of the short porch.

The Reds non-tendered Curt Casali last week, so they’ve already parted with one catcher this offseason. Tyler Stephenson is one of the top catching prospects in the game and he had a nice (albeit brief) showing in his MLB debut this past season. It seems the plan is pairing Barnhart and Stephenson in 2021, then giving the reins to Stephenson full-time in 2022.

Barnhart is owed $3.75M in 2021 ($7.5M club option with a $500,000 buyout for 2022), which is reasonable. If cutting costs is the priority, the Reds could trade Barnhart for a prospect or two, then spend maybe half the $4.25M he’s guaranteed on a veteran caddy for Stephenson (Jason Castro? Austin Romine?). They could net a prospect(s) and save some cash.

If the Yankees trade for Barnhart, one of three things would need to happen: dump Higashioka, dump Gary Sanchez, or carry three catchers next year. Three catchers is doable, especially if there’s a 28-man roster again, but it’s far from ideal. There’s also the “kick the can down the road and see who gets hurt in Spring Training” option, which works too.

The Yankees have shown little desire to spend anywhere close to Barnhart’s salary on a backup catcher, and in this case they’d have to trade a prospect(s) and pay that salary to get a backup catcher. The kind of all-glove/no-bat backup catcher they could find in free agency. Barnhart would’ve made sense had they taken the plunge and non-tendered Sanchez. I can’t see it now.

OF Nick Castellanos

Castellanos had a down 2020, hitting .225/.298/.486 (102 wRC+), but he’ll turn only 29 in March and he was a 121 wRC+ guy from 2016-19. His contact quality was right in line with his career norms in 2020. I’d bet the farm on a rebound in a normal-ish 2021. Castellanos has the kind of easy opposite field pop that would play very well in Yankee Stadium. Just watch this.

I think Castellanos would be a monster in Yankee Stadium. The problem is the Yankees have nowhere to play him. He’s primarily been a right fielder the last four years and a bad one at that (-38 DRS). His left field experience is minimal (74.1 innings) and besides, left field is the big part of Yankee Stadium. You don’t want to play him out there. The third base ship sailed long ago.

First base could be an option, though Castellanos has never played the position, and he didn’t seem receptive to the idea a few years ago. Also, there are three years and $48M remaining on his contract, which is an awful lot for a man who doesn’t obviously fit the roster. In an alternate universe, Castellanos is peppering the short porch nightly. In this universe, it doesn’t work.

RHP Michael Lorenzen

The Reds are planning to move Lorenzen into the rotation next year. He’s spent most of his career as a reliever (and sometimes outfielder) and he’s been solid in that role, posting a 3.57 ERA (3.95 FIP) with 21.5% strikeouts and 9.6% walks in over 300 innings. The under-the-hood numbers suggest Lorenzen has untapped potential:

Cincinnati will move the soon-to-be 29-year-old into the rotation next year -- Lorenzen throws four pitches (four-seamer, cutter, slider, changeup) but I’m not sure he has the control to start -- and there’s no harm in seeing how he looks in Spring Training. It’s much easier to go from starter to reliever than vice versa. Bring him to camp as a starter and see what’s what.

Lorenzen will be a free agent next offseason (projected $4M salary in 2021) and his trade value is tough to pin down. The Reds will want a return commensurate with a starter even though we don’t know whether he can actually start, and teams that want Lorenzen will offer a return more in line with his value as a reliever, because that’s what he’s been.

Rental relievers like Drew Pomeranz and Trevor Rosenthal were traded for two mid-range prospects within the last two years. Whether that’s enough to get Lorenzen is another matter. The Yankees could trade for him and try him in the rotation knowing the fallback option is a good (but not necessarily great) reliever. There’s no such thing as too many good bullpen options.

Lorenzen is a clear fit for the Yankees from a “they need more pitching” perspective. If he can start, wonderful. If not, there’s room in the bullpen. The money isn’t exorbitant and it’s not a risky long-term commitment. The only issue is finding common ground on trade value. The Yankees had interest in Lorenzen prior to the 2013 draft and maybe that interest still lingers.

LHP Wade Miley

The Reds would probably take nothing in return to unload the $9M they owe Miley next year ($8M salary plus the $1M buyout of his $10M option). Shoulder trouble limited him to 14.1 ineffective innings this past season (10 runs allowed) and Miley was so bad in Sept. 2019 (21 runs in 11.1 innings!) that the Astros avoided him like the plague in the postseason.

Miley, 34, picked up a cutter with the Brewers two years ago and seemed to save his career, though the shoulder injury and recent ineffectiveness are huge red flags. The Yankees need pitching. Lots of it. Even if he comes at no prospect cost, it’s hard to believe Miley is the best way they could use $9M in 2021. The Reds can live with this one.

IF Mike Moustakas

The Yankees are trying to re-sign a 32-year-old infielder with a career 100 wRC+ and 19.0 WAR. If they can’t re-sign DJ LeMahieu, could they pivot to Moustakas, a 32-year-old infielder with a career 100 wRC+ and 16.2 WAR? The comparison falls apart when you focus on the last two seasons (146 wRC+ and +7.8 WAR vs. 112 wRC+ and +3.5 WAR), but humor me.

Moustakas authored a .230/.331/.468 (113 wRC+) batting line with eight homers in 44 games around a quad injury this past season, and he did that while playing primarily second base. He has 79 career games at second, all in the last two seasons, and the numbers aren’t awful, albeit is a small and mostly insignificant sample:

• Second base: -3 DRS and +3 Outs Above Average
• Third base: -9 DRS and and -4 DRS (since 2017)

During this short, unusual season Moustakas ran a 22.2% strikeout rate that was roughly six percentage points higher than his career and 2019 rates. I don’t think he’s suddenly strikeout prone. That’s probably small sample weirdness. He’s a lefty who puts the ball in play and has averaged 36 homers per 162 games since 2017. The bat plays, especially at second base.

The shift makes it easier to hide poor defenders at second base these days, so, if the Yankees are willing to live with an inexperienced defender there, yeah, Moustakas could make sense as a LeMahieu alternative. He’s a good (not great) hitter and he has championship pedigree. Moustakas isn’t a star but he is a solid player who would not be out of place on a contender.

The Reds gave Moustakas a four-year, $64M contract last offseason and they back-loaded it. He made $12M in 2020 ($4.4M prorated) and still has $52M coming to him the next three years. It’s pricey. It’s also likely to be less than what it’ll take to re-sign LeMahieu, who is the better player. Moustakas is no slouch though, and maybe Cincinnati would even eat money to facilitate a trade.

I think I just talked myself into Moustakas being a LeMahieu alternative? Granted, I’d rather the Yankees just re-sign LeMahieu, but sometimes things don’t work out. This could be a “75% of the production at 50% of the cost” situation. Depending what the Reds want in a trade -- it can’t be too much given the money -- there’s definitely a scenario in which Moustakas makes sense*.

* There’s even a scenario in which Moustakas *and* LeMahieu make sense. Moustakas could be a roving “tenth man” who gets regular at-bats at first, second, third, and DH. That’s the role the Yankees envisioned for LeMahieu when they signed him, remember. He’d also serve as the injury insurance the Yankees will inevitably need.

3B Eugenio Suarez

Fun fact: Suarez set the single-season home run record for Venezuelan-born players last year. He hit 49. The 29-year-old got off to a brutal start in 2020 (4-for-44 in his first 13 games), but his final 44 games were in line with previous years, and he finished with a .202/.312/.470 (104 wRC+) line and 15 homers in 57 games. He’s a high strikeout, high walk, medium exit velocity guy.

Suarez started his career as a shortstop and is now a full-time third baseman, where he’s rated a tick below-average in recent years. His contract is crazy affordable -- Suarez is owed $45.5M the next four years -- and it gives him significant value, warts (strikeouts, defense, etc.) and all. The Reds could trade Suarez for a haul and plug Nick Senzel in at third, his natural position.

The Yankees don’t need a third baseman but they do need a second baseman. Could they trade for Suarez and put Gio Urshela at second, or vice versa? It’s worth considering in the way everything is worth considering, though I can’t say it sounds realistic. Suarez would require a pretty big prospect package and maybe the Yankees are willing to do it given his contract (similar to Curtis Granderson back in the day).

1B Joey Votto

Votto is a Hall of Fame hitter in my eyes and he’s one of the best hitters of his generation, but he is well past his prime now. He turned 37 in September, he’s been a league average-ish hitter the last two years, his exit velocity and hard-hit rates are trending down, and he’s owed $75M from 2021-23. Nope. Would’ve been fun once upon a time, but not now.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. The White Sox signed Adam Eaton to a one-year contract worth $7M earlier this week and that seems relevant to Brett Gardner. Gardner has been the better player the last two years …

… though he is five years older than Eaton and ZiPS has them as equals in 2021 (+1.8 WAR each). The Yankees determined Gardner is not worth $7.5M earlier this offseason -- they paid him a $2.5M buyout when they declined his $10M club option, so it was a $7.5M decision -- so re-signing him to a $7M Eaton-esque deal is very unlikely. Re-sign him for $5M though and his total compensation is $7.5M when you include the buyout, so maybe that flies? I dunno. I will believe Gardner will be a Not Yankee when I see him wearing a Not Yankee uniform. It may take a little while, but I think a reunion is inevitable, especially if the Yankees move Mike Tauchman … MLB’s hostile takeover of the minors is complete. The 120 new minor league affiliations were announced earlier this week -- the Charleston RiverDogs hooked on with the Rays as their Low-A affiliate, in case you’re wondering -- and the brand new High-A Mid-Atlantic League is a geographic nightmare, as J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) writes. The Yankees’ new High-A affiliate, the Hudson Valley Renegades in Fishkill, are the league’s northernmost team. The southernmost team is in Rome, Georgia. It’s almost a 1,000-mile road trip. The 12 Mid-Atlantic League teams are scattered all over the place. It’s almost like MLB gave the existing minor leagues the teams that made the most sense geographically, then dropped the leftover East Coast teams into this misfit toys league. Sigh. At least MLB saved a few bucks.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Brad asks: Wouldn’t Joc Pederson make more sense than Kyle Schwarber? He is a better defender and still provides power from the left side. Who would you rather the Yankees sign?

They are comparable hitters and comparable baserunners, but not comparable defenders. Joc is about average in the corners and below-average in center. Schwarber is below-average in the corners and center field ain’t happening. They’re both unplayable against lefties at this point, so here are their numbers against righties since 2018:

• Pederson: .246/.335/.546 (131 wRC+) with 21.1 K% and 9.8 BB%
• Schwarber: .240/.346/.514 (120 wRC+) with 25.8 K% and 13.8 BB%

Schwarber is a year younger, though Pederson turns 29 in April, so they’re both in their primes. We’re not picking between a 28-year-old and a 35-year-old. Both contributed to a championship team and they’re both regarded as strong clubhouse guys and good teammates. Truly, the only notable on-field difference between them is defense. Otherwise they’re carbon copies.

The off-field difference: contract. Pederson seems to be in line for multiple years and Schwarber is likely looking at a one-year “prove yourself” contract. The Cubs walked away rather than pay Schwarber $8M or so through arbitration. MLBTR projects two years and $18M for Pederson. FanGraphs crowdsourcing is at two years and $20M. Schwarber figures to be cheaper.

In a vacuum, I prefer Pederson over Schwarber because they’re similar hitters but he’s the better defender (not that he’s a Gold Glover or anything). And given their expected contracts, I’d still go Pederson. The extra year and a few million bucks won’t make or break the Yankees. It’s worth it to get the more well-rounded player. We’re nitpicking two similar players, but I prefer Joc.

John asks: What about going for Sugano AND Tanaka? Obviously this would inhibit their ability to also add DJLM under the presumed plan to get under the luxury tax, but I think the rotation is a bigger need than re-signing DJ. Obviously, I’d prefer both but that’s not the world we live in these days unfortunately.

I agree. If the Yankees can only spend their money on DJ LeMahieu or pitching (not realistic but let’s roll with it), they should spend it on pitching. They can spare some offense and there are a few quality lower cost infielders they could sign to replace LeMahieu (Cesar Hernandez, Tommy La Stella, etc.). The lower cost pitching options aren’t as appealing (Anthony DeSclafani? Martin Perez?), and the current rotation depth chart is lacking:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole (amazing)
2. RHP Luis Severino (will be back at midseason, hopefully)
3. LHP Jordan Montgomery (5.11 ERA and 3.87 FIP in 2020)
4. RHP Domingo German (hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since Sept. 2019)
5. RHP Deivi Garcia (promising but will have workload restrictions in 2021)
6. RHP Clarke Schmidt (promising but will have workload restrictions in 2021)
7. RHP Mike King (7.76 ERA and 5.14 FIP in 2020)

Imagine if Cole pulls a hamstring covering first base or something (or worse)? Lose LeMahieu and you’re still building an offense around Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, etc. There's no room to suffer an injury or deal with underperformance in the rotation. That is not a championship-caliber rotation. I’m not sure it’s a division title-caliber rotation.

I would love Masahiro Tanaka and Tomoyuki Sugano. Or Tanaka and Carlos Carrasco. Or Sugano and Yu Darvish. Two high-end starters, please. If you’re going to steer clear of Trevor Bauer, which the Yankees seem likely to do, then Tanaka and Sugano is the best money can buy this winter, I think. But get two starters. It shouldn’t be LeMahieu or pitching, the Yankees can have both. If they insist on one or the other, then give me the arms.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)