Mailbag: Judge, Pitching, Offseason Plan, Non-Tenders, Urshela, Murphy, Hicks, Alternate Site, DH

Happy Thanksgiving Eve, everyone. I have an inbox full of mailbag questions gnawing away at me, so I figured I’d throw them all together in an old school RAB-style mailbag post for today. These are questions I planned to answer at some point but kept pushing back for whatever reason. So here I am cleaning out the inbox.

George asks: I never thought I'd even consider a Judge trade and I don't think it's likely, but in a "get my mind off Covid" minute, who do you think he could bring back one for one. What about in a multi-player deal?

You will almost always regret trading a star player. It is so very hard to get equal value, especially when the return is built around prospects. One +6 WAR player is more valuable than two +3 WAR players because roster spots are a finite resource. One +6 WAR player leaves you another roster spot to use on anything (including another +6 WAR player!).

The Yankees aren’t trading Aaron Judge nor should they. Their championship window is wide open and Judge is their best player. It’s frustrating that he’s gotten hurt so much the last three years, but, when he’s healthy, he’s an impact player. Trading Judge runs counter to the whole “we’re trying to win a World Series” idea. I would be Very Mad Online if it happened.

Hypothetically though, Judge would fetch quite a bit in a trade because it’s two years of control of a star player. The injuries do take a bite out of his trade value, no doubt, but it’s still immense. Let’s gauge a potential return three different ways. First, let’s find similar players (impact guys with two years of control) and see what those trade packages looked like:

• Starling Marte: Traded for two top 10 organizational prospects (Brennan Malone and Liover Peguero).
• Marcell Ozuna: Traded for a top 70 global prospect (Sandy Alcantara), two top 10 organizational prospects (Zac Gallen and Magneuris Sierra), and a non-top 30 organizational prospect (Daniel Castano).
• Tommy Pham: Traded with an organizational top 15 prospect (Jake Cronenworth) for an MLB player with four years of control (Hunter Renfroe), a top 100 global prospect (Xavier Edwards), and a non-prospect to be named later (Esteban Quiroz).
• J.T. Realmuto: Traded for an MLB player with five years of control (Jorge Alfaro), a top 15 global prospect (Sixto Sanchez), a top 30 organization prospect (Will Stewart), and international bonus money.

More players fit the bill than I expected! Marte has a performance-enhancing drug suspension to his name, which may or may not have cut into his trade value. Pham was included in a larger deal with multiple players going each way, complicating things. The Ozuna and Realmuto trades fit best for Judge, I think, so you’re talking at least two top youngsters and more.

Second, let’s use the Baseball Trade Values site. Their methodology is overly simplistic but it’ll work for an exercise like this. They value Judge at $55.3M. Other players in that range include Casey Mize ($60.6M), Dustin May ($57.2M), Jose Ramirez ($56.9M), Matt Chapman ($55.4M), Ketel Marte ($55.3M), Mike Soroka ($55.1M), Zach Plesac ($53.1M), Chris Paddack ($52.7M), and Blake Snell ($52.4M). Judge for Snell, who says no???

And third, let’s look at the FanGraphs trade value series. They rank Judge at No. 27. Aaron Nola and Gavin Lux are directly ahead of him and Brandon Woodruff and Paul DeJong are directly behind him. Also behind him are Snell (No. 30), Luis Castillo (No. 32), Lucas Giolito (No. 33), Adley Rutschman (No. 41), and Jacob deGrom (No. 48). Judge for deGrom would be very fun in a chaotic sorta way.

Pretty much the only way trading Judge makes sense is if the Yankees get a star pitcher in return (deGrom, Giolito, Snell, etc.) and sign an outfielder like Michael Brantley or Joc Pederson. Giancarlo Stanton is a full-time DH and I have no interest in Mike Tauchman (or Brett Gardner) playing every single day. Needless to say, a “Judge for an ace” trade is unlikely. Don’t count on the big guy changing teams at any point before free agency.

John asks (short version): Between the 18-19 seasons the Yankees made three big transactions within the rotation and it looks like they went 0-3 on them (re-signing J.A. Happ over Lance Lynn, trading Sonny Gray, trading Justus Sheffield for James Paxton). If you could go back in time and stop one of them from happening, which would you stop?

Did anyone want the Yankees to keep Lynn and Gray at the time? I don’t think so. Everyone was done with Gray and Lynn didn’t exactly wow in pinstripes. I didn’t like the Happ contract -- I was pounding the table for Patrick Corbin, as you know if you’re reading this -- but I understood it. Moving on from Gray and re-signing Happ over Lynn were completely understandable moves.

Sheffield just had a very good season -- he’s in for some home run rate regression next year because no one’s true talent is a 0.33 HR/9 (4.4% HR/FB) -- but I don’t think anyone second guessed that trade a year ago. Paxton was the deserving No. 1 starter going into the postseason and Sheffield stunk in 2019. The Yankees are trying to win right now, not two or three years down the line, when Sheffield really settles in and enters his prime. Paxton was a win-now move and he helped them win in 2019. (Not so much in 2020.)

If I could go back in time to reverse one move, I think the obvious one is Happ over Lynn given the choices. Gray just wasn’t going to work in New York. The Yankees tried everything with him -- here’s where I note they wanted him to throw more sliders, he complained about it, then went to the Reds and threw more sliders and had success -- and it just wasn’t working. Both sides needed a divorce.

As for Sheffield for Paxton, I’m totally cool with that because Paxton was the far better bet to help the Yankees win in 2019-20, and the short-term has to be the priority. I think we need to see Sheffield have a full productive season before we toss this one in the loss column. Paxton gave the Yankees exactly what they needed in 2019. Happ over Lynn is the easy call here, but it’s really Happ over Corbin. That’s going to annoy me for a long time.

Kurt asks: I was wondering, what's the biggest change you'd make or add to your Offseason Plan if you weren't holding to the $210 million limit? I don't mean to go down a "the Yankees can spend whatever they want" rabbit hole where you just sign everyone. But let's say NY does want to capitalize on their financial advantage in a down year and were willing to stay in the $220-230 million range. Are there any particular signings or trades that would open up?

Here’s the Offseason Plan if you somehow missed it. I spent right up to the $210M luxury tax threshold, and if I had another $10M or $20M to spend, I would’ve re-signed Masahiro Tanaka before I re-signed DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu is the man, but my team would benefit more from the extra starter than another bat. We have offense to spare.

FanGraphs crowdsourcing gives Tanaka a three-year deal at $18M a season. MLBTR is at three years and $13M a year. I think Tanaka will end up closer to $13M annually than $18M, but that’s just me. Tanaka, Carlos Carrasco, Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and Joe Musgrove would be a pretty sweet rotation. Luis Severino returning at midseason could then be treated as a luxury rather than a necessity.

Another possibility is spreading the money around. Using MLBTR’s contract projections, we could bring in a reclamation project starter (James Paxton at $10M?), a good reliever (Trevor May at two years and $14M?), and another reliever with upside (Kirby Yates at $5M?) without breaking the bank. I’d spend the extra money on pitching, clearly. I think the offense is plenty good enough.

Ray asks: What potential non-tenders would be at the top of your list for the Yankees? I have an irrational desire for Travis Shaw if he’s non-tendered.

Shaw has been pretty bad the last two years (66 wRC+) but he’s a lefty hitter who pulls the ball in the air to right field a ton, so he’d love playing in Yankee Stadium full-time. He can play first and third bases, and also be a pinch-hitter option off the bench. There could be a place for him on the bench next year, but you can’t start him over Luke Voit or Gio Urshela.

The non-tender deadline is next Wednesday, so we’ll see who gets cuts loose then. Here are a few players on MLBTR’s non-tender candidates list who caught my eye:

C Curt Casali: Good defender, has power (14 homers in 329 plate appearances the last two years), and will take walks (11.9% the last two years). The Yankees need a good third catcher behind Gary Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka and Casali is overqualified for the job.

UTIL Johan Camargo: Had a breakout 2018 as Atlanta’s starting third baseman (116 wRC+), but injuries and inconsistent playing time have held him back the last two years. A switch-hitter who can play four positions (second, third, short, left) is always worth a call.

UTIL Niko Goodrum: Similar to Camargo, he had a breakout 2018 as a full-time player but has struggled the two years since. Unlike Camargo, Goodrum has remained a full-time player, so he can’t use the “injuries and inconsistent playing time” excuse.

LHP Steven Matz: I’ve always liked Matz for no reason in particular. He was awful this season (33 runs in 30.2 innings) but he’s still only 29, he has four distinct pitches, he has experience starting and relieving, and he’s had success in New York. You can find a use for him.

RHP Corey Knebel: Hamstring trouble limited him to 13.1 ineffective innings in his return from Tommy John surgery this year, but, when he’s right, Knebel is as nasty as they come. I’d be very willing to bring him aboard and see what he does another year out from surgery in 2021.

Nicholas asks: Is Gio Urshela a potential chip in a Francisco Lindor trade? I love Gio, but as an MLB-ready (in his case, MLB) player who can slot in the infield and is fairly cheap, might he be attractive to Cleveland, and perhaps more attractive than Andujar if they aren’t sold on Miggy’s glove? This also makes room in the infield (although maybe not salary room) for LeMahieu.

I wonder how Cleveland fans would react if they trade their franchise player for a guy who was so bad for them they gave him away a few years ago? Probably wouldn’t go over well. Urshela should appeal to Cleveland because he’s cheap and good, and they could easily make room for him by sliding Jose Ramirez to second base, a position he’s played in the past. It fits.

If you’re the Yankees though, you’re trying to add Lindor to Urshela, not replace Urshela with Lindor. Maybe including Urshela in the trade keeps the door open to re-sign DJ LeMahieu, but I can’t see the Yankees adding two $20M-ish infielders to the payroll next year. I can't see them adding two $20M-ish anythings this winter.

Part of Lindor’s appeal is Cleveland’s leverage, or lack thereof. They can’t afford him and everyone knows it, and only a few teams can afford to take on Lindor’s salary next year amid the pandemic. This isn’t a “give up Starlin Castro to get Giancarlo Stanton” situation because Urshela is better and cheaper than Castro. They don’t want to unload his salary.

Cleveland would not be wrong to demand Urshela in a Lindor trade. I’d call their bluff, take Gio off the table, and tell them you wish them luck if you don’t like what we’re offering. I’m not sure any team will offer a player as good as Urshela. And, if someone does, that’s okay. The Yankees can pivot and re-sign LeMahieu, and keep Urshela as well.

Dan asks: How about Daniel Murphy as a FA signing for the bench?

Eh, pass. Murphy was sub-replacement level with the Rockies the last two years -- I thought he would put up unreal numbers in Coors Field and instead he hit .272/.320/.432 (80 wRC+) -- and his knees are pretty much shot. He has no baserunning value and no range in the field. He’s a first base only guy these days (he turns 36 in April), so he’s a bench guy with no versatility.

The Yankees carried Mike Ford, another first base only guy, on the roster pretty much all season in 2020, but that was with a 28-man roster. With any luck, we’ll have a normal-ish season next year, which means a 26-man roster. Hard to see a spot for Murphy on a four-man bench. If he’s willing to take a minor league contract, by all means, bring him to camp and see what’s what. I wouldn’t guarantee him anything at this point in his career.

John asks: Probably a question to address in the offseason but I am so mystified by Aaron Hicks' walk ability. What makes his eye so good compared to others? Does he see less strikes? Really good at fouling pitches off to eventually spit on ball 4? Really good at laying off borderline pitches? I'm sure the data is out there to try and get an answer on how he does it.

It is mystifying, isn’t it? Hicks swung at only 14.6% of pitches outside the strike zone this past season, second fewest in baseball behind Cavan Biggio (13.7%). (The league average chase rate was 27.3% in 2020). Hicks had the 15th lowest chase rate last year and the sixth lowest chase rate the year before that. He just doesn’t expand the zone.

This past season 49.9% of the pitches Hicks saw were in the strike zone. Over the last three seasons, it’s 48.8%. The league average is 49.8%, so Hicks has not seen considerably fewer pitches outside the zone than everyone else. He’s seeing an average number of pitches in the zone and yet he still posted the eighth highest walk rate in baseball since 2018 (15.5%).

Hanser Alberto had the highest chase rate in baseball this past season at 51.4%. Eddie Rosario was a very distant second at 41.2%. Here are Alberto’s and Hicks’ swing heat maps. One guy only swings at strikes, the other swings at everything.

Hicks has paired his ultra-low chase rate with a league average swing rate against pitches in the strike zone the last few years (in 2020, it was 64.4% vs. 64.7%), so it’s not that he’s not swinging in general. He’s swinging at pitches in the zone and taking pitches out of the zone, which is the entire point. Few do it as well as Hicks.

I wanted to look a little deeper, so here are Hicks’ chase rates when he’s ahead and behind in the count over the last three seasons:

• Hicks ahead in the count: 19.9% (MLB average: 28.1%)
• Hicks behind in the count: 21.2% (MLB average: 32.8%)

It makes sense that the chase rate would jump a bit when the hitter is behind in the count because he’s trying to protect the plate, and the pitcher is trying to get him to chase. Hicks is still really locked in when he’s behind in the count though. He makes the pitcher come in the zone to get him out. It’s pretty impressive.

Hicks swings at fewer first pitches (23.8% the last three years vs. 28.8% league average) and fewer three-ball pitches (52.1% vs. 59.9%) than the league average, though his 3-0 swing rate is almost exactly average (11.0% vs. 10.8%). The simple answer to the “how is Hicks so good at drawing walks?” question is that his eye is better than everyone else’s. He was born with the ability to recognize pitches, and the discipline to stay in the zone.

I am hopeful Hicks will regain his power next year as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery, similar to Corey Seager and Didi Gregorius this year. Since his 2017 breakout, Hicks owns a .247/.362/.457 (123 wRC+) batting line, and he turned 31 last month. The Yankees owe him $51.5M the next five years. They paid Jacoby Ellsbury $105.7M from ages 31-35. Lorenzo Cain will make $73M from ages 31-35. Hicks is a damn good player on a good contract.

Joe asks: Obviously getting game action is valuable, but have you gotten any sense that the Extended Spring Training-nature of the Alternate Site was more valuable for prospects who were there? Thinking someone like Luis Gil (or Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt) who changed his arsenal/ made bigger adjustments -- he could do it during the season, but it seems the controlled nature of the Alternate Site would have allowed him to focus on development vs. everything that comes with competitive games (prepping for opponents, travel, etc).

I have not gotten any sense and I’m not sure teams have either. It’s great that Gil picked up a slider at the alternate site, and that Alex Vizcaino tweaked his delivery, but we don’t know how those adjustments play in actual games yet. It’s one thing to feel comfortable doing it in the bullpen or in a glorified sandlot game at the alternate site. It’s another to do it in a competitive game. Getting work in at the alternate site was definitely better than spending the summer at home and not getting hands on pro instruction, of course.

My worry is all these alternate site adjustments are similar to Spring Training adjustments. Every February we hear this guy has a new pitch, that guy changed his swing, etc., and we all get excited, then those adjustments are nowhere to be found in April. With no scouts allowed at the alternate site, we’re stuck relying on the team for information, and of course they’re going to talk up their players. The information we got from Scranton has been encouraging. I need to see these guys in games before I fully buy into anything though.

Josh asks: Assuming the NL keeps the universal DH going forward, is it time MLB modifies the rule and lets the DH swap positions and play the field like any other position without the penalty of inserting the pitcher in the lineup? Nobody wants to see pitchers hit and they will be even more unprepared to do it now, so this makes sense to me.

Yeah, I think so. Let’s get pitchers hitting out of the game entirely and treat DH like every other position. It would potentially reduce injuries -- no pitchers hitting and no players playing out of position because the team doesn’t want to give up the DH to move that player into the field -- and it’s not like there’s a loophole that can be exploited here. Maybe there is and I’m not seeing it, but I don’t think allowing the DH to move to another position without penalty is something that can and will be abused. Let’s do it. It only makes sense.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)