May 8th, 2019: Tanaka, German, Urshela, Andujar, Kemp, Gregorius, Kahnle, Loaisiga, Breaux

So it turns out when you only write one post per week, it's a really big post. Twelve points and 4,072 words today. Going forward, I think I'm going to break it into two posts per week. More frequent updates for you and no additional work for me since I write this as I go. Plus it'll also help avoid having topics go stale. I'm going to try Tuesday and Friday next week and see how it goes. Anyway, here are this week's thoughts. (Send mailbag questions to RABmailbag@gmail.com.)

1. Masahiro Tanaka's splitter is officially a problem. It had been giving him trouble his last few starts, then, last night, he threw eight splitters among his 95 pitches. It was the second lowest splitter usage rate (8.4%) in his MLB career -- Tanaka had a random 5.1% splitter game in May 2016 -- and only the second time he threw less than 12% splitters in a game. Tanaka is usually around 30% splitters. He all but abandoned the pitch last night and his splitter usage had been trending down in recent starts. The splitter has become a non-factor and, not surprisingly, Tanaka's typically excellent chase rate is the lowest it's been in his MLB career:

That ain't good. The splitter affects everything. It affects how Tanaka's fastball plays, how the slider plays, everything. Tanaka's splitter is his moneymaker, his go-to pitch, and right now he doesn't have it. "It’s a priority for me to get that split  back ... (The problem is) not necessarily the location of the pitch. It’s the feel of the pitch, the movement and everything. I feel that’s not there and that needs to be adjusted," Tanaka said to Chris Ryan following yesterday's game. That he was able to grind through 6.1 innings with only two runs allowed last night is a positive. He's smart enough and savvy enough to still get outs without his best pitch. I have  hard time thinking that'll last though. Tanaka needs his split. I believe it's only a matter of time until he figures it out because he's gone through similar spells in the past, plus he's so smart and so dedicated to his craft. To use a cliche, Tanaka is most definitely a pitcher, not a thrower. He'll figure it out and I hope it happens soon, but he must not feel good about the pitch at all to abandon it like he did last night.

2. I am all-in on Domingo German being #ActuallyGood. He is going to get whacked with the home run regression stick at some point -- German has a 0.47 HR/9 (5.1% HR/FB) with a 39.4% ground ball rate, and that's just not going to last in the juiced ball era, especially when he calls homer happy Yankee Stadium home -- but it's three good to great pitches with newfound strike-throwing ability. Some Statcast numbers:

• Expected AVG: .224 (64th percentile)
• Expected SLG: .339 (73rd percentile)
• Expected wOBA: .278 (77 percentile)

The contact German has allowed generally does not produce good results (for the batter). His "Edge" rate, according to Statcast, is 47.0%. The league average is 42.7% and German was at 42.0% the last two seasons. In English, that means he is living on the corners. He's staying out of the middle of the plate at a higher rate than the league average and at a higher rate than what he did from 2017-18. German's stuff is good enough that he can get away with some mistake pitches out over the plate. The more he's on the corners though, the more effective he'll be, and we're seeing it this season. There is little chance German will maintain his 2.35 ERA (2.73 FIP) all season. I think he'll settle in around a 3.60 ERA or thereabouts, which is still really good. Point is, this is a talented pitcher -- German was selected for the Futures Game once upon a time! -- who is starting to figure things out. It's exciting. German may not truly be this good, but this is an improved pitcher, not just a guy riding a fluky BABIP hot streak.

3. I'm all-in on German being good. I'm not there with Gio Urshela quite yet but I am intrigued. He's been unbelievable so far, don't get me wrong, but eventually hits like this and this will dry up, and the .397 BABIP will slip. That's baseball. There are tangible reasons to believe Urshela has improved as a hitter though. I mean, this is not the guy who hit .225/.274/.315 (57 wRC+) in 499 big league plate appearances from 2015-18. He's changed. Aaron Boone and hitting coach Marcus Thames have hinted at some swing adjustments --  "Since last year when we got him, he really focused on staying in his legs a little bit more. He did that work with (hitting coach) Phil Plantier at Triple-A and he brought it into winter ball and into the spring," Thames told Brendan Kuty recently --  and Urshela's contact quality is up considerably. He's always been a low strikeout guy. Now he's hitting the ball harder:

Mike Petriello recently posted before and after photos of Urshela's stance and he's much more open now. Urshela's average exit velocity is up roughly 3 mph from previous years and his expected AVG (.341) and expected wOBA (.384) are both in the top 15% of the league. (The expected average is in the top 2%.) He's getting great results because he's making great contact, and whatever mechanical adjustment he made that equals "staying in his legs" provides a tangible explanation for the improved contact quality. Urshela is only 27. He won't turn 28 until after the season. He's a former well-regarded prospect as well, and Urshela certainly wouldn't be the first talented player to not figure it out until age 27. Also, the Yankees have a pretty excellent track record when it comes to identifying buy-low candidates in other organizations. Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Chad Green, Luke Voit, etc. Why not Urshela? No, he's probably not a true talent .360/.424/.547 (161 wRC+) hitter, but can he be league average going forward? Let's start there. This is a guy who came into the season with a career 57 wRC+, remember. League average would be a significant improvement. A league average bat with his defense would make Urshela a comfortably above-average player. Sticking with Urshela at third base and Miguel Andujar at designated hitter for the time being is the painfully obvious way to go, and the Yankees are doing that. Even if Urshela is a total fluke, what he's doing happened and it helped the Yankees win games. It's in the bank. The swing adjustments indicate there is at least a small chance it's legit. (Obligatory: I wrote an Urshela post at CBS before yesterday's game, then updated it after. It's basically just a longer version of what you just read.)

4. Speaking of Andujar, it is an incredibly small sample (one game and four throws), but there was noticeably less power on his throws in his first game back at third base. Statcast data on infield throws exists, I've seen MLB.com's people tweet it out, but it is not yet available publicly. Rats. We can't compare the numbers. The lack of oomph on Andujar's throws was noticeable enough that Aaron Boone was asked about it after the game --  "I didn’t think he was tentative, no," said the manager to Zach Braziller -- and both Andujar and Boone chalked up his throwing error to bad execution. For all his defensive warts, Andujar's arm strength has never been in question. His arm is very strong. It was not strong Saturday. Is that because he was holding back following the shoulder injury, or because the shoulder injury sapped arm strength? Or just small sample noise? I'm inclined to think it's the former right now. It's a small labrum tear, small enough that he hasn't needed surgery and didn't even need that much rest and rehab, and I'm not sure a tear that minor would reduce his arm strength that much. Andujar was probably a little tentative, which is understandable. At the plate, he looks like the same ol' Miggy Missiles. Hard to tell he was ever hurt based on his swing. (He's still searching for his timing after the layoff, but the aggressive hacks are there.) If his arm strength is compromised though, whatever little defensive value he has is kaput.

5. Had he been released three or four weeks ago, Matt Kemp would've made much more sense for the Yankees than he does now. Now Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar are back and they have to be in the lineup, and Gio Urshela is playing too well to sit, so there are no DH at-bats available. Also, Aaron Hicks started a rehab assignment with High-A Tampa this week, so he's inching closer to a return as well. Kemp is an atrocious defender -- his -38 DRS since 2015 is seventh worst in baseball -- but the Yankees could've hid him in Yankee Stadium's small right field for a six or seven innings, then replaced him for defense. I think a Cameron Maybin/Mike Tauchman platoon will out-produce Kemp on defense alone between now and when Hicks returns. Kemp hit .200/.210/.283 (24 wRC+) with the Reds before they cut him loose, though he barely played, so it's not a big sample. Last season he had a big .310/.352/.522 (137 wRC+) first half before crashing to .255/.313/.406 (97 wRC+) in the second half, and a league average-ish bat with disaster defense isn't worth a roster spot. Not with Andujar locked in at DH for the time being. It would be a no cost move (pro-rated league minimum) and there would be no 40-man roster headaches (Dellin Betances is a 60-day injured list candidate at this point), so the Yankees could sign Kemp and it would be no big deal. I'm just not sure if it makes sense right now with Andujar and Frazier back, and Hicks on his way. Three or four weeks ago, sure, bring him in and ride out. Now? Nah. (Also, Kemp gets a say in this too, and he would presumably prefer a team that offers a clearer path to playing time. He knows his time with the Yankees would be limited.)

6. During a radio interview the other day Brian Cashman said Didi Gregorius is " really progressing well" with his Tommy John surgery rehab, and added the team's target date for his Extended Spring Training debut is less than two weeks away. Bryan Hoch has a transcript:

"He'll complete his throwing program this week and head into relays, stuff like that, and maybe a full workout shortly thereafter," Cashman said. "We have a target of maybe as early as May 20 where he can start getting some [designated-hitter] at-bats in extended spring."

Similar to Miguel Andujar's injury, throwing is the primary concern with Gregorius, not hitting. Game action rehab has to start somewhere though and getting at-bats as the DH in ExST was always going to be the place it started. That's the first hurdle. The next is playing shortstop and making competitive throws, and that might still be a few weeks away. This won't be a quick one week rehab stint, obviously. Anyway, it's good Gregorius is progressing with his rehab, though I feel compelled to point out Corey Seager as a cautionary tale. Seager returned from Tommy John surgery earlier this year and he's currently hitting .234/.331/.359 (91 wRC+) with exit velocity (87.5 mph) and hard-hit (36.8%) rates well below his career averages (90.3 mph and 42.8%). Sir Didi's and Seager's situations aren't exactly the same -- Seager kinda rushed through Spring Training to get ready for Opening Day whereas the Yankees are taking their time with Gregorius -- but still, Seager is a reminder Gregorius is not guaranteed to hit the ground running when he returns. Returning at some point around the All-Star break means he will have been away from MLB caliber pitching for nine months, and that's a lot of rust to shake off. For now, I'm very happy Gregorius is closing on his ExST debut, even if he will only DH for the time being. That's a big step. Once he completes his rehab, hopefully he can avoid the post-Tommy John surgery hangover that seems to have wrapped up Seager.

7. With Chad Green struggling and Dellin Betances injured, Tommy Kahnle has been a godsend for the bullpen. I'm not sure he'll ever get back to where he was in 2017 -- his walk rate and overall velocity that season are outliers compared to the rest of his career and I'm comfortable calling that his career year at this point -- but the guy he is now is pretty good. His 31.6% strikeout rate is 38th best among the 207 pitchers with at least ten innings pitched, and he's keeping the ball on the ground as well (66.7% ground balls). Some numbers:

• Kahnle vs. Astros on May 10th: 0.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HR
• All other Kahnle appearances: 13.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 6 BB, 18 K, 0 HR

“I’m not (back to my 2017 form) yet, where everything was easy for me, but I feel better than at any point last year," Kahnle told Dan Martin recently. Kahnle is essentially Aaron Boone's lefty specialist now too. Thanks to his changeup, lefties are 1-for-22 with 13 strikeouts against Kahnle this year. The other day Boone brought in Kahnle, not the warmed up Adam Ottavino, with two on and two outs to face the lefty hitting Max Kepler. (Kahnle struck Kepler out.) I assume Zack Britton is Plan A against left-handed hitters in high-leverage situations. Given his usage this year, it sure seems that Kahnle and his changeup are Plan B. Either way, Kahnle's been dynamite so far. He's probably never going back to throwing 99 mph regularly and walking less than 7% of the batters he faces. Kahnle at 96-97 mph with a 12.0% walk rate is pretty good though, especially as the fourth guy in the bullpen.

8. I've said this before and I'm going to say it again: The Yankees should pair Jonathan Loaisiga with an opener. He is rejoining the rotation tonight and, as much as I like the kid and as talented as he is, Loaisiga doesn't pitch deep into games at all. He's completed five innings in two of his six big league starts, and, in the minors, he's never once thrown more than five innings in a start since joining the Yankees in February 2016. Obviously part of that is injuries/workload management, but still, Loaisiga is not in position to pitch even somewhat deep into games right now. He is five-and-fly at best. The Yankees could pair him with an opener, let that reliever (Tommy Kahnle?) go through the top of the order, then turn it over to Loaisiga and hope he can get you through 15 batters while facing the top of the lineup only once. The opener might be a way to steal some extra length from Loaisiga. What about a tandem starter setup? By that I mean start Loaisiga, let him go through the lineup one time, then bring in a reliever who goes through the lineup one time as well. Hope those two get you through five innings, then turn it over to the bullpen for business as usual. Maybe David Hale and his newfound velocity/spin can be that tandem starter? Or Chance Adams? Luis Cessa? I'm not sure who that tandem starter could be. Just kicking around ideas. Point is, I am very much pro-opener with Loaisiga. Keeping him away from the top of the lineup once per start seems like a good way to maximize his effectiveness and maybe steal some extra outs.

9. Since Loaisiga will make his first start filling in for James Paxton tonight, it's worth checking in on the rotation depth chart. Here's what it looks like at the moment:

1. Luis Severino (Brian Cashman said we "won’t see Severino until after the All-Star break, in our minds" during a recent radio interview)
2. James Paxton (Cashman said he should be back in three weeks)
3. Masahiro Tanaka
4. CC Sabathia
5. J.A. Happ
6. Jordan Montgomery (he said he's targeting mid-August for his return)
7. Domingo German
8. Jonathan Loaisiga
9. Mike King (out with an elbow issue and recently suffered a setback)
9. Uh, Chance Adams?

As good as the rotation has been this year -- Yankees starters have an 80 ERA- this year, fourth best in baseball (that means their park-adjusted numbers are 20% better than league average) -- the Yankees are walking a fine line right now. They've reached the limits of their depth and that's usually what happens when your top two starters get hurt (imagine the Astros without Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, or the Nationals without Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg) and a fifth rotation candidate is coming back from elbow reconstruction. The "they should've kept Gio Gonzalez!" takes are coming at some point, they are inevitable, but I don't blame the Yankees for letting him walk one bit. Imagine spending $396,000 per start ($300,000 plus luxury tax) on a dude you can't trust to be league average or even eat innings in the AL East? In a world where money doesn't matter, sure, go for it, what do I care. That's not reality though. Hopefully Paxton returns in three weeks and is good as new. Given the way things have gone this year, I'll need to see it to believe it. The Yankees have gone with their in-house options to address nearly every injury situation this year and hey, it's working. I assume they'll continue to do that. They're at their limit with the rotation though. One more injury and outside help will be needed.

10. Catcher Josh Breaux, last year's second round pick, has hit four home runs in his last four games and five home runs in his last eight games, raising his season batting line to .310/.348/.560 (163 wRC+). The 30.3% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate are eyesores, for sure, but the power is playing, and that was Breaux's calling card going into the draft. Big power, big arm behind the plate. I'm not quite sure what's up with first rounder Anthony Seigler right now -- Seigler, another catcher, was shut down with what was described as a minor quad injury in Spring Training -- but it could be that he's healthy and working on things in Extended Spring Training. That would be not at all uncommon for a 19-year-old catcher one year removed from high school. As long as Seigler is healthy, I could see him joining Low-A Charleston at some point in June, with Breaux moving up to High-A Tampa. That seems doable given how the Yankees usually handle these things. Breaux's ability to refine his plate discipline will determine whether he becomes a starting caliber catcher or a guy who always leaves you wanting more. He's pretty similar to Mike Zunino and Miguel Olivo. Strikes out a ton, doesn't walk much, huge power, and a game-changing arm. That can play in the big leagues. The thing is, Breaux has Zunino and Olivo strikeout and walk rates in Low-A, not in the big leagues, so he needs to tighten things up. I'm glad the power is playing. That will forever be his calling card. There are still some very obvious warts here though.

11. I do not buy for one second that teams are avoiding Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel for draft pick compensation reasons. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement changed the free agent compensation rules and now every first round pick is protected. Those are the valuable picks. A second or third rounder? Who cares. When you're a contending team, you should -- should -- be willing to give up a non-first round pick for a potential multi-win upgrade like Keuchel or Kimbrel. Anyway, the draft is less than four weeks away now, which means we're closing in on the point where teams could game the system. The Yankees could, for example, sign Keuchel right now to a minor league contract with a June 3rd opt-out (Tim Brown says draft pick compensation goes away at midnight on June 2nd). They would keep their precious draft pick -- minor league contracts do not trigger free agent compensation -- and Keuchel would be able to go to Triple-A to make some tune-up starts in the meantime. Then, on June 3rd, he triggers the opt-out and the Yankees add him to the roster. See? Easy. Avoids the draft pick issue and allows Keuchel to make the minor league starts he needs to make to get game ready. The Yankees have not been connected to Keuchel at all these last few months (or Kimbrel, for that matter), so I would be surprised if they got involved now. That said, James Paxton is down with a knee issue, and if it turns into something that lingers longer than expected -- considering how things have gone for the 2019 Yankees to date, that seems like a decent bet -- the Yankees could check in on Keuchel, especially since we're getting to the point where draft pick compensation will be a non-issue. (MLB presumably would not be happy with a team using a minor league contract to skirt the free agent compensation rules. I'd love to see a team try it though. It'd be funny to see MLB argue Keuchel or Kimbrel deserves a larger contract when teams are more or less colluding them out of the game and commissioner Rob Manfred is perfectly happy to look the other way.)

12. It was reported recently that MLB is looking to secure local broadcast rights for all 30 teams. That won't happen anytime soon because, according to the Associated Press, Sinclair recently purchased 21 regional sports networks from Disney (that's another discussion for another time). MLB's long-term plan is to secure local broadcasting rights, put the money into a one big pot, then pay it out equally among the 30 teams. That's how the NFL does it. "(It) would solve a lot of those competitive issues for us, kind of level the playing field," Manfred said. This would never ever ever happen, but if MLB truly cared about competitive integrity and eliminating tanking, they could use that hypothetical local television money to make it happen. The better your record, the more television money you receive. From what I understand, that's how the Premier League works. The most successful teams get the most television money. Right now, MLB teams are so comfortable tanking because their television money is locked in. They're getting paid regardless of record, so why field an expensive winning team when you could field a cheap losing team and rake in higher profits? Take away that television money and tanking goes away. Again, this won't happen, mostly because I don't see MLB gaining control of local television rights anytime soon. That's how to eliminate tanking though. Not a draft lottery or anything like that. You have to hit teams in the wallet -- I mean really hit them in the wallet -- to make them feel it.

Mailbag Question of the Week

John asks: I have always thought that elite defense at shortstop is more valuable then elite defense in centerfield. But with the launch angle revolution is that true? Forget the bat, would you rather have Buxton/Kiermaier at center or Simmons/Lindor at short.  Don't count the fact that Simmons is a joy to watch! Just going from a strict value perspective.

Historically, shortstops get more fielding chances than center fielders, and it's not close either. The gap is closing though. Here are the ratios quick:

• 2005: 1.78 shortstop chances per center field chance
• 2010: 1.70
• 2015: 1.72
• 2019: 1.61

Last year it was 1.58 shortstop chances per center field chance, easily the lowest ratio in the batted ball data era (since 2002). Because shortstops see so much more action than center fielders, even in the launch angle era, I still believe elite shortstop defense is more valuable than elite center field defense.

Also, we have to consider position scarcity. Failed infielders move to the outfield, not the other way around. Billy Hamilton was a shortstop. The Uptons were shortstops. Alex Gordon was a third baseman. Finding an elite defensive shortstop seems like it is more difficult than finding an elite defensive outfielder.

I believe the launch angle craze is cyclical. Eventually adjustments will be made and we'll see some more balls on the ground. For now, fly balls are on the rise, and the gap between shortstop defensive chances and center field defensive chances is shrinking. It's still large enough that I consider shortstop defense more important, so give me Andrelton Simmons or Francisco Lindor over Byron Buxton or Kevin Kiermaier (regardless of bat).